QU ES LA CURVA IDF?

Son curvas que resultan

de unir los puntos
representativos de la
intensidad media en intervalos
de diferente duracin, y
correspondientes todos ellos a
una misma frecuencia o
periodo de retorno.
QU SE REQUIERE?
Ao En. Febr. Mzo. Abr. My. Jun. Jul. Ag. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dic. Mximo
1997 139.57 180.19 122.01 44.98 12.64 1.48 0.98 20.34 43.03 79.90 116.60 204.10 204.10 204.10

SE REQUIEREN DATOS 1998

1999
2000
203.30
125.60
197.70
231.00
212.90
177.80
73.50
144.80
154.50
85.70
31.10
62.80
7.80
21.00
10.30
6.10
23.30
4.10
0.00
13.80
3.90
10.30
0.30
39.10
14.40
59.30
28.80
116.80
80.90
70.00
107.20
84.50
18.00
129.10
106.90
102.90
231.00
212.90
197.70
231.00
212.90
197.70

DE PRECIPITACIN
2001 249.40 107.80 127.70 36.50 33.30 2.90 11.80 4.30 35.30 51.50 67.30 107.70 249.40 249.40
2002 114.90 160.20 209.60 35.90 16.40 6.10 33.60 14.10 55.90 76.40 81.00 155.80 209.60 209.60
2003 175.50 181.90 169.10 77.10 27.50 0.90 1.40 53.60 53.30 45.00 73.50 165.50 181.90 181.90

MXIMA MENSUAL, SE 2004

2005
51.60
85.80
165.40
108.90
102.90
105.20
26.10
11.40
22.90
14.00
14.10
0.00
17.90
0.00
20.00
8.30
50.90
17.40
93.00
127.80
104.10
65.30
168.30
124.75
168.30
127.80
168.30
127.80

RECOMIENDA QUE SEA

2006 224.70 110.10 116.40 43.10 2.80 11.40 0.00 25.70 36.40 92.40 108.50 132.67 224.70 224.70
2007 94.50 112.70 120.30 58.90 26.40 0.00 25.60 15.20 37.50 91.70 93.60 129.37 129.37 129.37
2008 217.00 123.30 56.60 45.20 15.50 8.20 0.00 8.00 33.90 116.40 68.70 122.86 217.00 217.00

DE POR LO MENOS 20
2009 96.50 169.20 40.19 45.70 26.30 23.00 9.10 34.70 47.80 62.70 98.80 145.63 169.20 169.20
2010 327.99 278.72 53.99 54.91 0.88 5.08 11.21 10.94 25.50 67.79 54.65 118.21 327.99 327.99
2011 159.47 210.53 55.65 89.60 15.16 0.00 10.58 11.44 80.76 67.72 84.76 129.50 210.53 210.53

AOS. 2012
2013
100.69
153.64
136.11
135.94
56.43
54.21
105.85
59.52
15.16
6.69
12.51
7.52
8.89
9.63
10.38
27.20
48.08
68.08
56.78
58.07
85.68
65.48
133.16
108.71
136.11
153.64
136.11
153.64
2014 164.04 78.99 54.04 55.90 56.85 9.87 15.33 11.16 73.79 59.37 81.75 125.30 164.04 164.04
2015 132.28 96.33 53.94 53.85 13.90 3.78 13.59 16.69 54.61 68.59 79.14 118.48 132.28 132.28
MAX 327.99 278.72 209.60 105.85 56.85 23.30 33.60 53.60 80.76 127.80 116.60 204.10 327.99
PRECIPITACIONES MS PROBABLES
Distribucin de probabilidades pluviomtricas
mediante Gumbel

Mes Precipitacin (mm)

SE UTILIZA LA SIGUIENTE FRMULA: ( ) 2

N Ao
Max. Precip. xi (xi - x)^2
1 1997 204.10 204.10 146.96
2 1998 231.00 231.00 1522.78
3 1999 212.90 212.90 437.77
3647.6 4 2000 197.70 197.70 32.75

= = = 191.98 5
6
2001
2002
249.40
209.60
249.40
209.60
3297.38
310.56
19 7 2003 181.90 181.90 101.55
8 2004 168.30 168.30 560.61
9 2005 127.80 127.80 4118.71

(204.10 191.98) 2 = 146.96mm

10 2006 224.70 224.70 1070.78
11 2007 129.37 129.37 3920.11
12 2008 217.00 217.00 626.14
13 2009 169.20 169.20 518.80
14 2010 327.99 327.99 18499.69
15 2011 210.53 210.53 344.32
16 2012 136.11 136.11 3120.67
17 2013 153.64 153.64 1469.68
18 2014 164.04 164.04 780.57
19 2015 132.28 132.28 3563.44
19 Suma 3647.6 44443.3
 Clculo variables probabilsticas
VARIABLES PROBABILSTICAS
x=
x i
= 191.98 mm
n
LAS VARIABLES PROBABILSTICAS
VIENES A SER:
(x - x)
n
2

EL PROMEDIO ARITMTICO. S= i =1
i
= 49.69 mm
LA DESVIACIN ESTNDAR. n -1

ALFA. 6
a= *s = 38.74 mm
U. p

u = x - 0.5772 * a = 169.61 mm
CLCULO DE LAS PRECIPITACIONES DIARIAS MXIMAS PROBABLES
PARA DISTINTAS FRECUENCIAS

= ln ln
Periodo Variable
Retorno Reducida
Precip.
(mm)
Prob. de Correccin
ocurrencia intervalo fijo
( 1)
Aos YT XT'(mm) F(xT) XT (mm)
2 0.3665 183.8145 0.5000 207.7104 = + .
5 1.4999 227.7268 0.8000 257.3313
10 2.2504 256.8006 0.9000 290.1846
25 3.1985 293.5353 0.9600 331.6949 = 1.13( )
50 3.9019 320.7873 0.9800 362.4896
100 4.6001 347.8380 0.9900 393.0570
500 6.2136 410.3481 0.9980 463.6934 SE UTILIZA LA ECUACIN DE GMBEL:


=
PRECIPITACIONES MXIMAS PARA DIFERENTES TIEMPOS DE DURACIN
DE LLUVIAS
SE CONSIDERA LOS 1 2 3 4
Duraciones en horas
5 6 8 12 18 24
COEFICIENTES DE DURACIN 0.30 0.39 0.46 0.52 0.57 0.61 0.68 0.80 0.91 1.00
Fuente: D. F. Campos A., 1978
EN HORAS PLANTEADO POR
CAMPOS (1973)
Tiempo de Precipitacin mxima Pd (mm) por tiempos de duracin
Cociente
duracin 2 aos 5 aos 10 aos 25 aos 50 aos 100 aos 500 aos
24 hr X24 207.71 257.33 290.18 331.69 362.49 393.06 463.69
18 hr X18 = 91% 189.02 234.17 264.07 265.36 329.87 357.68 421.96
12 hr X12 = 80% 166.17 205.87 232.15 265.36 289.99 314.45 370.95
8 hr X8 = 68% 141.24 174.99 197.33 225.55 246.49 267.28 315.31
6 hr X6 = 61% 126.70 156.97 177.01 202.33 221.12 239.76 282.85
5 hr X5 = 57% 118.39 146.68 165.41 189.07 206.62 224.04 264.31
4 hr X4 = 52% 108.01 133.81 150.90 172.48 188.49 204.39 241.12
3 hr X3 = 46% 95.55 118.37 133.48 152.58 166.75 180.81 213.30
2 hr X2 = 39% 81.01 100.36 113.17 129.36 141.37 153.29 180.84
1 hr X1 = 30% 62.31 77.20 87.06 99.51 108.75 117.92 139.11
INTENSIDADES DE LLUVIA A PARTIR DE PD, SEGN DURACIN DE
PRECIPITACIN Y FRECUENCIA DE LA MISMA
Tiempo de duracin Intensidad de la lluvia (mm /hr) segn el Periodo de Retorno
Hr min 2 aos 5 aos 10 aos 25 aos 50 aos 100 aos 500 aos
24 hr 1440 8.6546 10.7221 12.0910 13.8206 15.1037 16.3774 19.3206
() 18 hr 1080 10.5009 13.0095 14.6704 14.7420 18.3259 19.8712 23.4423
= 12 hr 720 13.8474 17.1554 19.3456 22.1130 24.1660 26.2038 30.9129
() 8 hr 480 17.6554 21.8732 24.6657 28.1941 30.8116 33.4098 39.4139
6 hr 360 21.1172 26.1620 29.5021 33.7223 36.8531 39.9608 47.1422
5 hr 300 23.6790 29.3358 33.0810 37.8132 41.3238 44.8085 52.8610
4 hr 240 27.0024 33.4531 37.7240 43.1203 47.1237 51.0974 60.2801
3 hr 180 31.8489 39.4575 44.4950 50.8599 55.5817 60.2687 71.0996
2 hr 120 40.5035 50.1796 56.5860 64.6805 70.6855 76.6461 90.4202
1 hr 60 62.3131 77.1994 87.0554 99.5085 108.7469 117.9171 139.1080
 REGRESIN PARA EL CLCULO DE LAS CURVAS I-D-T

I =
K T m
tn
SUSTITUCIN d = K T m

QUEDA

d
I = n I = d t -n
t
 CLCULO DE LAS VARIABLES D Y N MEDIANTE REGRESIN POTENCIAL

Periodo de retorno para T = 2 aos ( 2 )

N x y ln x ln y ln x*ln y (lnx)^2 =
1 1440 8.65 7.27 2.16 15.69 52.89 2 ( 2 )
2 1080 10.50 6.98 2.35 16.42 48.79
3 720 13.85 6.58 2.63 17.29 43.29
4 480 17.66 6.17 2.87 17.73 38.12
5 360 21.12 5.89 3.05 17.95 34.65
6 300 23.68 5.70 3.16 18.05 32.53 = (N Ln d )/
7 240 27.00 5.48 3.30 18.06 30.04
8 180 31.85 5.19 3.46 17.97 26.97
9 120 40.50 4.79 3.70 17.72 22.92
10 60 62.31 4.09 4.13 16.92 16.76
10
Ln (d) =
4980
6.6660
257.12
d=
58.16
785.2544
30.81
n=
173.81
-0.6164
346.94
= ()
 GRFICO DE CORRELACIN EXPONENCIAL ENTRE EL TIEMPO Y LA INTENSIDAD PARA UN PERIODO DE 2
AOS

Serie T= 2 aos
x y
1440 8.6546
1080 10.5009
720 13.8474
480 17.6554
360 21.1172
300 23.6790
240 27.0024
180 31.8489
120 40.5035
60 62.3131
RESUMEN DE APLICACIN DE REGRESIN POTENCIAL
Resumen de aplicacin de regresin potencial
Periodo de retorno Trmino ctte. De
Coef. De regresin [n]
(aos) regresin (d)
2 785.25439976 -0.61638609
5 972.84742577 -0.61638609
10 1097.05033200 -0.61638609
25 1368.47059244 -0.63362500
50 1370.40119226 -0.61638609
100 1485.96172307 -0.61638609
500 1753.00446856 -0.61638609
Promedio = 1261.85573341 -0.61884879
 CLCULO DE LOS FACTORES K Y M POR REGRESIN POTENCIAL

Regresin potencial
N x y ln x ln y ln x*ln y (lnx)^2 ( 2 )
1 2 785.2544 0.6931 6.6660 4.6205 0.4805 =
2 5 972.8474 1.6094 6.8802 11.0733 2.5903
2 ( 2 )
3 10 1097.0503 2.3026 7.0004 16.1190 5.3019
4 25 1368.4706 3.2189 7.2214 23.2449 10.3612
5 50 1370.4012 3.9120 7.2229 28.2560 15.3039
6 100 1485.9617 4.6052 7.3038 33.6353 21.2076 = (N Ln K )/
7 500 1753.0045 6.2146 7.4691 46.4174 38.6214
7 692 8832.9901 22.5558 49.7638 163.3665 93.8667
Ln (K) = 6.6507 K= 773.2899 m= 0.1423
= ()

d = K T m
x y
2 785.2544
5 972.8474
10 1097.0503
25 1368.4706
50 1370.4012
100 1485.9617
500 1753.0045
 K T m
773.29 0.142
I = n =
t 0.6188
Tabla de intensidades tiempo de duracin

Tabla de intensidades - Tiempo de duracin

Frecuencia Duracin en minutos
en aos 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
2 315.22 205.27 159.72 133.67 116.43 104.01 94.54 87.04 80.93 75.82 71.47 67.73
5 359.12 233.85 181.96 152.28 132.64 118.49 107.71 99.17 92.19 86.37 81.43 77.16
10 396.34 258.09 200.82 168.07 146.39 130.77 118.87 109.44 101.75 95.33 89.87 85.16
25 451.53 294.03 228.78 191.47 166.77 148.98 135.42 124.68 115.92 108.60 102.38 97.01
50 498.33 324.51 252.49 211.32 184.06 164.42 149.46 137.61 127.93 119.86 112.99 107.07
100 549.98 358.14 278.66 233.22 203.14 181.46 164.95 151.87 141.19 132.28 124.70 118.17
500 691.51 450.30 350.37 293.23 255.41 228.16 207.40 190.95 177.53 166.32 156.79 148.57
 GRFICO INTENSIDAD DURACIN - FRECUENCIA