Contemporary Business Statistics: Williams - Sweeney - Anderson

Contemporary
Business
Statistics
4e
Slides by
John
Loucks
St. Edwards
University
Williams|Sweeney|Anderson
2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 1
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter 10, Part A
Statistical Inference About Means and Proportions
With Two Populations
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: s 1 and s 2 Known
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: s 1 and s 2 Unknown
Slide 2
Estimating the Difference Between
Two Population Means
Let 1 equal the mean of population 1 and 2 equal
the mean of population 2.
The difference between the two population means is
1 - 2.
To estimate 1 - 2, we will select a simple random
sample of size n1 from population 1 and a simple
random sample of size n2 from population 2.
Let x1 equal the mean of sample 1 and x2 equal the
mean of sample 2.
The point estimator of the difference between the
means of the populations 1 and 2 is x1 x2.
Slide 3
Sampling Distribution of x1 x2
Expected Value
E ( x1 x2 ) 1 2
Standard Deviation (Standard Error)
s12 s 22
s x1 x2
n1 n2
where: s1 = standard deviation of population 1

s2 = standard deviation of population 2
n1 = sample size from population 1
n2 = sample size from population 2
Slide 4
Interval Estimation of 1 - 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
Interval Estimate
s 12 s 22
x1 x2 z / 2
n1 n2
where:
1 - is the confidence coefficient
Slide 5
s 1 and s 2 Known
Example: Par, Inc.
Par, Inc. is a manufacturer of golf equipment and
has developed a new golf ball that has been designed
to provide extra distance.
In a test of driving distance using a mechanical
driving device, a sample of Par golf balls was
compared with a sample of golf balls made by Rap,
Ltd., a competitor. The sample statistics appear on the
next slide.
Slide 6
s 1 and s 2 Known
Example: Par, Inc.
Sample #1 Sample #2
Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
Sample Size 120 balls 80 balls
Sample Mean 275 yards 258 yards
Based on data from previous driving distance

tests, the two population standard deviations are
known with s 1 = 15 yards and s 2 = 20 yards.
Slide 7
s 1 and s 2 Known
Example: Par, Inc.
Let us develop a 95% confidence interval estimate
of the difference between the mean driving distances
of the two brands of golf ball.
Slide 8
Estimating the Difference Between
Two Population Means
Population 1 Population 2
Par, Inc. Golf Balls Rap, Ltd. Golf Balls
1 = mean driving 2 = mean driving
distance of Par distance of Rap
golf balls golf balls
m1 2 = difference between
the mean distances
Simple random sample Simple random sample
of n1 Par golf balls of n2 Rap golf balls
x1 = sample mean distance x2 = sample mean distance
for the Par golf balls for the Rap golf balls
x1 - x2 = Point Estimate of m1 2
Slide 9
Point Estimate of 1 - 2
Point estimate of 1 2 = x1 x2
= 275 258
= 17 yards
where:
1 = mean distance for the population
of Par, Inc. golf balls
of Rap, Ltd. golf balls
Slide 10
s 1 and s 2 Known
s12 s 22 (15) 2 ( 20) 2

x1 x2 z / 2 17 1. 96
n1 n2 120 80
17 + 5.14 or 11.86 yards to 22.14 yards
We are 95% confident that the difference between
the mean driving distances of Par, Inc. balls and Rap,
Ltd. balls is 11.86 to 22.14 yards.
Slide 11
s 1 and s 2 Known
Excel Formula Worksheet
A B C D E
1 Par Rap Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
2 255 266 Sample Size =COUNT(A2:A121) =COUNT(B2:B81)
3 270 238 Sample Mean =AVERAGE(A2:A121) =AVERAGE(B2:B81)
4 294 243
5 245 277 Popul. Std. Dev. 15 20
6 300 275 Standard Error =SQRT(D5^2/D2+E5^2/E2)
7 262 244
8 281 239 Confid. Coeff. 0.95
9 257 242 Level of Signif. =1-D8
10 268 280 z Value =NORM.S.INV(1-D9/2)
11 295 261 Margin of Error =D10*D6
12 249 276
13 291 241 Pt. Est. of Diff. =D3-E3
14 289 273 Lower Limit =D13-D11
15 282 248 Upper Limit =D13+D11
Note: Rows 16-121 are not shown.
Slide 12
s 1 and s 2 Known
Excel Value Worksheet
A B C D E
1 Par Rap Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
2 255 266 Sample Size 120 80
3 270 238 Sample Mean 275 258
4 294 243
5 245 277 Popul. Std. Dev. 15 20
6 300 275 Standard Error 2.622
7 262 244
8 281 239 Confid. Coeff. 0.95
9 257 242 Level of Signif. 0.05
10 268 280 z Value 1.96
11 295 261 Margin of Error 5.14
12 249 276
13 291 241 Pt. Est. of Diff. 17
14 289 273 Lower Limit 11.86
15 282 248 Upper Limit 22.14
Slide 13
Hypothesis Tests About 1 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
Hypotheses
H0 : 1 2 D0 H0 : 1 2 D0 H0 : 1 2 D0
H a : 1 2 D0 H a : 1 2 D0 H a : 1 2 D0
Left-tailed Right-tailed Two-tailed
Test Statistic
( x1 x2 ) D0
z
s 12 s 22

n1 n2
Slide 14
s 1 and s 2 Known
Example: Par, Inc.
Can we conclude, using = .01, that the mean
driving distance of Par, Inc. golf balls is greater
than the mean driving distance of Rap, Ltd. Golf
balls?
Slide 15
s 1 and s 2 Known
p Value and Critical Value Approaches
1. Develop the hypotheses. H0: 1 - 2 < 0 Right-

tailed
Ha: 1 - 2 > 0 test
where:
of Par, Inc. golf balls
of Rap, Ltd. golf balls
2. Specify the level of significance. = .01
Slide 16
s 1 and s 2 Known
3. Compute the value of the test statistic.
( x1 x2 ) D0
z
s 12 s 22

n1 n2
(235 218) 0 17
z 6.49
(15)2 (20)2 2.62

120 80
Slide 17
s 1 and s 2 Known
p Value Approach
4. Compute the pvalue.

For z = 6.49, the p value < .0001.
5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because pvalue < = .01, we reject H0.
At the .01 level of significance, the sample evidence
indicates the mean driving distance of Par, Inc. golf
balls is greater than the mean driving distance of Rap,
Ltd. golf balls.
Slide 18
s 1 and s 2 Known
Critical Value Approach
4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.
For = .01, z.01 = 2.33

Reject H0 if z > 2.33

Because z = 6.49 > 2.33, we reject H0.
The sample evidence indicates the mean driving
distance of Par, Inc. golf balls is greater than the mean
driving distance of Rap, Ltd. golf balls.
Slide 19
Excels z-Test: Two Sample for Means Tool
Step 1 Click the Data tab on the Ribbon

Step 2 In the Analysis group, click Data Analysis
Step 3 Choose z-Test: Two Sample for Means
from the list of Analysis Tools
Step 4 When the z-Test: Two Sample for Means
dialog box appears:
(see details on next slide)
Slide 20
Excel Dialog Box
Slide 21

A B C D E F
1 Par Rap
2 255 266 z-Test: Two Sample for Means
3 270 238
4 294 243 Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
5 245 277 Mean 235 218
6 300 275 Known Variance 225 400
7 262 244 Observations 120 80
8 281 239 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
9 257 242 z 6.483545607
10 268 280 P(Z<=z) one-tail 4.50145E-11
11 295 261 z Critical one-tail 2.326341928
12 249 276 P(Z<=z) two-tail 9.00291E-11
13 291 241 z Critical two-tail 2.575834515
Slide 22
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
When s 1 and s 2 are unknown, we will:
use the sample standard deviations s1 and s2
as estimates of s 1 and s 2 , and
replace z/2 with t/2.
Slide 23
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
Interval Estimate
s12 s22
x1 x2 t / 2
n1 n2
Where the degrees of freedom for t/2 are:

2
s s 2 2

1 2
df n1 n2
2 2
1 s1 2
1 s2
2

n1 1 n1 n2 1 n2
Slide 24
Difference Between Two Population Means:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
Example: Specific Motors
Specific Motors of Detroit has developed a new
automobile known as the M car. 24 M cars and 28
J cars (from Japan) were road tested to compare
miles-per-gallon (mpg) performance. The sample
statistics are shown on the next slide.
Slide 25
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
Sample #1 Sample #2
M Cars J Cars
Sample Size 24 cars 28 cars
Sample Mean 29.8 mpg 27.3 mpg
Sample Std. Dev. 2.56 mpg 1.81 mpg
Slide 26
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
Let us develop a 90% confidence interval estimate
of the difference between the mpg performances of
the two models of automobile.
Slide 27
Point Estimate of 1 2
Point estimate of 1 2 = x1 x2
= 29.8 - 27.3
= 2.5 mpg
where:
1 = mean miles-per-gallon for the
population of M cars
2 = mean miles-per-gallon for the
population of J cars
Slide 28
Interval Estimation of 1 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
The degrees of freedom for t/2 are:
2
(2.56) (1.81)
2 2

df 24 28 24.07 24
2 2
1 (2.56) 2 1 (1.81) 2

24 1 24 28 1 28
With /2 = .05 and df = 24, t/2 = 1.711
Slide 29
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
s12 s22 (2.56)2 (1.81)2

x1 x2 t / 2 29.8 27.3 1.711
n1 n2 24 28
2.5 + 1.069 or 1.431 to 3.569 mpg
We are 90% confident that the difference between

the miles-per-gallon performances of M cars and J cars
is 1.431 to 3.569 mpg.
Slide 30
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
A B C D E
1 M J Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
2 26.1 25.6 Sample Size =COUNT(A2:A25) =COUNT(B2:B29)
3 32.5 28.1 Sample Mean =AVERAGE(A2:A25) =AVERAGE(B2:B29)
4 31.8 27.9 Sample Std. Dev. =STDEV(A2:A25) =STDEV(B2:B29)
5 27.6 25.3
6 28.5 30.1 Est. of Variance =D4^2/D2+E4^2/E2
7 33.6 27.5 Standard Error =SQRT(D6)
8 31.7 26.0
9 25.2 28.8 Confid. Coeff. 0.90
10 26.0 30.6 Level of Signif. =1-D9
11 32.0 24.4 Degr. of Freedom =D6^2/((1/(D2-1))*(D4^2/D2)^2+(1/(E2-1))*(E4^2/E2)^2))
12 31.7 27.3 t Value =T.INV.2T(D10,D11)
13 30.4 27.5 Margin of Error =D12*D7
14 27.6 26.3 Note:
15 32.3 25.5 Point Est. of Diff.=D3-E3 Rows 18-29
16 30.6 26.3 Lower Limit =D15-D13 are not shown.
17 29.5 24.3 Upper Limit =D15+D13
Slide 31
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
A B C D E
1 M J Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
2 26.1 25.6 Sample Size 24 28
3 32.5 28.1 Sample Mean 29.8 27.3
4 31.8 27.9 Sample Std. Dev. 2.56 1.81
5 27.6 25.3
6 28.5 30.1 Est. of Variance 0.39007
7 33.6 27.5 Standard Error 0.62456
8 31.7 26.0
9 25.2 28.8 Confid. Coeff. 0.90
10 26.0 30.6 Level of Signif. 0.10
11 32.0 24.4 Degr. of Freedom 24.07
12 31.7 27.3 t Value 1.711
13 30.4 27.5 Margin of Error 1.069
14 27.6 26.3
Note:
15 32.3 25.5 Point Est. of Diff. 2.5 Rows 18-29
16 30.6 26.3 Lower Limit 1.431 are not shown.
17 29.5 24.3 Upper Limit 3.569
Slide 32
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
Hypotheses
H0 : 1 2 D0 H0 : 1 2 D0 H0 : 1 2 D0
H a : 1 2 D0 H a : 1 2 D0 H a : 1 2 D0
Left-tailed Right-tailed Two-tailed
Test Statistic
( x1 x2 ) D0
t
2 2
s s

1 2
n1 n2
Slide 33
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
Can we conclude, using a .05 level of significance,
that the miles-per-gallon (mpg) performance of M cars
is greater than the miles-per-gallon performance of J
cars?
Slide 34
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
1. Develop the hypotheses.
H0: 1 - 2 < 0 Right-
Ha: 1 - 2 > 0 tailed
test
where:
1 = mean mpg for the population of M cars
2 = mean mpg for the population of J cars
Slide 35
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
2. Specify the level of significance. = .05
3. Compute the value of the test statistic.
( x1 x2 ) D0 (29.8 27.3) 0
t 4.003
s12 s22 (2.56)2 (1.81)2

n1 n2 24 28
Slide 36
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
p Value Approach
4. Compute the p value.
The degrees of freedom for t are:
2
(2.56) (1.81) 2 2

df 24 28
40.566 41
2 2
1 (2.56) 2 1 (1.81) 2

24 1 24 28 1 28
Because t = 4.003 > t.005 = 1.683, the pvalue < .005.
Slide 37
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
p Value Approach
Because pvalue < = .05, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the miles-per-
gallon (mpg) performance of M cars is greater than
the miles-per-gallon performance of J cars.
Slide 38
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
Critical Value Approach
4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.
For = .05 and df = 41, t.05 = 1.683
Reject H0 if t > 1.683

Because 4.003 > 1.683, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the miles-per-
gallon (mpg) performance of M cars is greater than
the miles-per-gallon performance of J cars.
Slide 39
Excels z-Test: Two-Sample
Assuming Unequal Variances Tool
Step 1 Click the Data tab on the Ribbon
Step 2 In the Analysis group, click Data Analysis
Step 3 Choose t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming
Unequal Variances from the list of
Analysis Tools
Step 4 When the t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming
Unequal Variances dialog box appears:
(see details on next slide)
Slide 40
Excel Dialog Box
Slide 41
A B C D E F
1 Mcar Jcar z-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances
2 26.1 25.6
3 32.5 28.1 Mcar Jcar
4 31.8 27.9 Mean 29.79583 27.30357
5 27.6 25.3 Variance 6.555199 3.272209
6 28.5 30.1 Observations 24 28
7 33.6 27.5 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
8 31.7 26.0 df 41
9 25.2 28.8 t Stat 3.99082
10 26.0 30.6 P(T<=t) one-tail 1.33000E-04
11 32.0 24.4 t Critical one-tail 1.682879
12 31.7 27.3 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.000266
13 30.4 27.5 t Critical two-tail 2.019542
Slide 42
End of Chapter 10, Part A
Slide 43

Contemporary Business Statistics: Williams - Sweeney - Anderson

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Оригинальное название

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Contemporary Business Statistics: Williams - Sweeney - Anderson

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Contemporary

Standard Deviation (Standard Error)

where: s1 = standard deviation of population 1

Based on data from previous driving distance

s12 s 22 (15) 2 ( 20) 2

1. Develop the hypotheses. H0: 1 - 2 < 0 Right-

2. Specify the level of significance. = .01

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

4. Compute the pvalue.

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For = .01, z.01 = 2.33

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Step 1 Click the Data tab on the Ribbon

Excel Dialog Box

Excel Value Worksheet

Where the degrees of freedom for t/2 are:

With /2 = .05 and df = 24, t/2 = 1.711

s12 s22 (2.56)2 (1.81)2

We are 90% confident that the difference between

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Вам также может понравиться