Group 2

presents
The following: (scope)
Forecasting Traffic
Traffic Demand Analysis
Modeling
Trip Distribution
Appraisal of Highway
Cost Benefit Analysis
Payback Analysis
Environmental Appraisal
NATA Approach to Appraisal
FORECASTING TRAFFIC
o is the process of estimating the
number of vehicles or people
that will use a specific
transportation facility in the
future.
Why Forecast?
o To ensure sufficient future funding
o To highlight potential black spots
o To formulate transport policy
o Estimate financial viability of
transportation projects
o Calculate environmental impact of
transportation
Problems With forecasts
They are only estimates
Relationships based on past trends and
patterns of consumer behaviour may not
always be accurate for predicting
behaviour in the future
Consumer tastes change and markets
go through life cycle phases.
Changes in transport policy
TRAFFIC DEMAND ANALYSIS
Transportation Demand refers to
the amount and type of travel
people would choose under specific
conditions, taking account factors
such as the quality of transport
options available and their prices.
 2 MAJOR ASPECTS IN TRAFFIC
DEMAND ANALYSIS:

1. Land use refers to the pattern of land

usage in an area.
2. Trip purpose refers to the purpose
for which the trip is being undertaken.
DEMAND MODELING
requires that all parameters
determining the level of activity
within a highway network must
first be identified and then
quantified in order that the results
output from the model has an
acceptable level of accuracy.
Classification of trip-maker certain decisions:

1. The decision to travel.

2. The decision on the choice of
destination.
3. The decision on the choice of mode.
4. The decision on the choice of route.
TRIP DISTRIBUTION METHOD
The purpose of trip distribution is to
produce a trip table of the estimated
number of trips from each TAZ to every
other TAZ within the study area. (TAZ
Traffic Analysis Zone)
TRIP GENERATION:

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 1
Trip Matrix
Zone 5
or Zone 6
Trip Table
Zone 7

Zone 8
Types of Trip distribution model:
1. The gravity model- It allows the effect of differing
physical planning strategies, travel costs and
transportation systems to be taken into account

Figure 2: Illustrated layout for gravity model

2. Growth factor models- The cells within a trip
matrix indicate the number of trips between each
origin destination pair. The row totals give the
number of origins and the column totals give the
number of destinations.

Figure 3: Illustrated layout for growth factor model

Appraisal of Highway
to determine the economic, societal and
environmental feasibility of the project or group
of projects under examination. The process
enables highway planners to decide whether a
project is desirable in absolute terms and also
provides a means of choosing between different
competing project options, all of which have the
ability to meet the stated goals and objectives of
the project sponsors.
Following Steps:

1. Problem recognition.
2. Goal identification.
3. Identification of alternative
4. Information search.
5. Assessment of information on alternative
highway schemes.
6. Selection of preferred highway scheme.
7. Evaluation.
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)

o utilizes the net present value

technique where the costs and
benefits of the scheme are
discounted over time so that they
represent present day values.
Advantages and
Disadvantages of
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Advantages:
o The use of the common unit of measurement, money,
facilitates comparisons between alternative highway
proposals and hence aids the decision-making process.
o Given that the focus of the method is on benefits and
costs of the highway in question to the community as a
whole, it offers a broader perspective than a narrow
financial/investment appraisal concentrating only on the
effects of the project on the project developers, be that
the government or a group of investors funding a toll
scheme.
Disadvantages:
o The primary basis for constructing a highway project may
be a societal or environmental rather than an economic
one.
o The method is more suitable for comparing highway
proposals designed to meet a given transport objective,
rather than evaluating the absolute desirability of one
project in isolation.
o Although some limited recognition may be given to the
importance of costs and benefits that cannot be measured
in monetary terms,
Payback Analysis

ois an extremely simple procedure that is

particularly useful in evaluating proposals such
as privately funded highway projects where tolls
will be imposed on users of the facility in order
to recover construction costs. The method
delivers an estimate of the length of time taken
for the project to recoup its construction costs.
The method assumes that a given proposal will
generate a stream of monies during its economic
life, and at some point the total value of this
stream will exactly equal its initial cost.
NATA Approach to Appraisal

New Approach to Appraisal (NATA) was

the name given to a multi-criteria decision
framework used to appraise transport
projects and proposals .NATA was built
on the well established cost-benefit
analysis and environmental impact
assessment techniques.
ENVIRONMENTAL APPRAISAL

The process of weighing all the policies

in a development plan for their global,
national and local implications.

Means to analyze the entire factors

business environment.
5 Objectives and their Constituent Impacts:

1. Environmental

2. Safety

3. Economy

4. Accessibility

5. Integration
ENVIRONMENTAL
oNoise
The impact of noise is quantified in terms of the
number of properties whose noise levels in the
year in question for the with proposal option
are greater or less than those in the base year.

oLocal air quality

Levels of both particulates PM10 (in micrograms
per cubic metre) and nitrogen dioxide NO2 (in
parts per billion) are of particular concern.
SAFETY

This criterion measures the extent to which the

proposal improves the safety for travelers, indicating its
effectiveness in terms of the monetary value, in present
value terms, of the reduction in accidents brought
about directly by the construction of the new/improved
road.
ECONOMY

The degree to which the proposal contributes

both to economic efficiency and to sustainable
economic growth in appropriate locations is
assessed under this heading.

oJourney times and vehicle operating costs

oCosts
oReliability
oRegeneration
ACCESSIBILITY

This criterion relates to the proposals impact on

the journeys made within the locality by modes
of transport other than the private car, assessing
whether the proposed project will make it easier
or more difficult for people to journey to work by
public transport, on foot, by bicycle or other
means.
INTEGRATION

This criterion assesses in broad terms the

compatibility of the proposal with land use and
transportation plans and policies at local,
regional and national
level.