Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Authors
Main Question
Theoretical Background and Assumptions
Methodological Approach
Results
Case Studies
Evaluation
Conclusion
Authors
Roberto Foa
20002003 BA in Politics, Philosophy and
Economics, University of Oxford.
20042005 M.Phil, Social and Political Sciences,
University of Cambridge.
20082010 M.A. in Government, Harvard
University.
20102016 Ph.D. in Government, Harvard
University.
2016- Lecturer in Political Science, University of
Melbourne, Australia
Authors
Yascha Mounk
2000 2003 BA in History, Trinity College,
Cambridge.
2004-2005 MPhil in Political Thought &
Intellectual History, Trinity College, Cambridge.
2007-2015 PhD, Department of Government,
Harvard University.
2015 - Lecturer on Government, Department
of Government, Harvard University.
Main Questions
Has only the government legitimacy declined or also the regime legitimacy?
5
Theoretical Background and Assumptions
6
Theoretical Background and Assumptions
Regime Legitimacy
Citizens
Support for key
support for the
institutions
system
Willingness to Openness to
advance authoritarian
political causes alternatives
7
Theoretical Background and Assumptions
8
Theoretical Background and Assumptions
Democracy are consolidated when they are the only game in town (Linz and Stepan,
1996).
Behaviorally: no significant political groups seriously attempt to overthrow the
democratic regime or secede from the state.
Attitudinally: even in the face of severe political and economic crises, the
overwhelming majority of the people believe that any further political change must
emerge from within the parameters of democratic formulas.
Constitutionally: all the actors in the polity become habituated to the fact that political
conflict will be resolved according to the established norms and that violations of these
norms are likely to be both ineffective and costly.
9
Theoretical Background and Assumptions
Deconsolidation of democracy
Democratic consolidation is not a one-way.
Deconsolidation process is
10
Methodological Approach
Data: World Value Survey, waves 3-6 (1995-2014)
use of descriptive methods
Comparison of birth cohorts/age and regions
Questionnaire
How essential is it for you to live in a democracy? Scale 1(not at all) -10 (absolutly)
How interested would you say you are in politics? Scale 1(very)-4 (not at all)
11
Questionnaire
12
Results
Do we have good grounds for our democratic self-confidence?
13
How have political participation and support for liberal
democracy fared in the recent past?
14
The decline in political engagement
Since the 1960s, voter turnout has fallen and political-party membership has plummeted.
Most scholars have resisted the conclusion that young people are disengaged from politics by arguing
that a decline in conventional forms of political participation has been compensated for by a rise in
nonconventional forms of activism (membership in new social movements, participation in protests and
boycotts).
Historically, citizens have been more likely to engage in protests when they are young. In the United
States, one in eleven baby-boomers has joined a demonstration in the past twelve months, but only one
in fifteen millennials has done so.
15
Rising Support for Authoritarian Alternatives
16
Case Studies
Venezuela
1980s: considered a stable two-party democracy;
a model to be imitated in Latin America;
After 1998: a partialy free country.
Poland
Successful transition to democracy after communism;
Robust civil Society;
After 2015: civil rights in danger.
Case Studies
In 1995, 22.5% of the Venezuelans said that they would prefer an authoritarian
government; 13.9% were indifferent.
46.3 % agreed that democracy does not solve the problems of the country, and
81.3 percent said that they would welcome a strongman leader.
Levels of confidence in politicians and political institutions were consistently low
throughout this period.
It would have been much better able to predict where those countries were headed.
Foa, Roberto S. & Yascha Mounk (2016): The Dangers of Deconsolidation. Journal
of Democracy 27: 5-17.
Foa, Roberto S. & Yascha Mounk (2017): The Signs of Deconsolidation. Journal of
Democracy 28: 5-15.
Linz, J.; Stepan, A. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. 1996.
World Values Survey. http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp