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Smart Meters and AMI Markets -

Global Perspective
Agenda

1 AMI Introduction and Value Chain

2 AMI Benefits & Features

3 AMI Technology Trends & Evolution

4 Key Industry Challenges

5 APAC AMI Markets

6 European Smart Meters Markets

7 South African Smart Meters Markets

8 US AMI Markets

2
2
Legacy System vs AMI Systems

Consumer Metering Utility

Electricity
Utility
Meter
Cannot
communicate One-way
to/from communication
consumer

Consumer Metering LAN WAN MDMS Utility

HAN
In home
Display Smart RF MESH CDMA MDMS
Meter PLC GSM Utility
BPL

AMI
Two-way
communication
3
AMI Value chain

Consultants

System Integrators

Installation Contractors

Home Area Wide Area MDMS


Smart Meter Network (HAN) Network
Zigbee, Home plug Local Area
Network (LAN) (WAN)
Data collection & WiFi, Z-Wave, Process and
storage Wavenis, RF mesh, PLC, store meter
BPL, WiMax, GPRS Public/Private
Digitalstrom data
Network
Major Players Major Players Major Players Major Players
GE, Landis+Gyr, PRI, GridConnect, Itron, eMeter,
Itron, Elster, SSN, EKA
Elster Freescale, MicroChip SAP
Systems, Trilliant

Meter Vendors Communication Vendors IT Vendors


Source: Frost & Sullivan

4
Advanced Metering Benefits

Reduced Energy bills Reduced meter reading


errors

Reduced billing errors


Reduced meter
reading costs

Prepayment option Half Hourly usage data

Physical privacy for consumers

5
AMI Features

1 Record at least Hourly Usage of data

2 Remote reading and also ability to manually read

3 Remote connection and disconnection

4 Two-way communication and Communication path to in-home display

5 Visual display on meter

6 Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)

7 Tamper detection

8 Outage notification

9 Prepayment option

10 Time of use

11 Load Control

12 Measurement of active/reactive energy flow (To allow for distributed generation)

6
AMI Technology Evolution

Demand
Response
Outage
Notification
Energy
Management
Systems
Remote Connect/
Real time Disconnect
Time of use
communication
In-Home
Remote meter Display
reading Remote Meter
Configuration

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

7
Technology Trends Communication Technology
Penetration

2010 2015 2020

RF

GPRS
AMI
Technologies
PLC

WiMAX

Low Medium High

Source: Frost & Sullivan

8
Advanced Metering - Industry Challenges

Risk on information security clouding consumers


judgment

Fear of losing power over load control by the utilities

Initial upfront cost and cost recovery

Issue of Stranded Assets and evolving technology

Lack of Standard Protocols and Interoperability

Source: Frost & Sullivan

9
AMI Roll out Cost breakdown for Projects

Smart Meter and its installation form the majority of cost involved in AMI
implementation

Source: Frost & Sullivan

10
Asia Pacific AMI

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Drivers and Restraints - Australia

Drivers Restraints
2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020

Government Mandate Rapidly changing


technology

Enhanced Customer Lack of standards


information

Operational Efficiency Rising cost to consumers

Impact

High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan.

12
Drivers and Restraints New Zealand

Drivers Restraints
2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020

Demand side participation Rapidly changing


technology

Compliance deadline Lack of standards


of 2015

Highly competitive & Ageing workforce


Deregulated market

Impact

High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan.

13
Drivers and Restraints Taiwan

Drivers Restraints

2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020

Reduced energy wastage Regulation

Reduction in peak load Lack of standards

Reduction in Green House Lack of funding


Gas emissions

Impact

High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan.

14
Drivers and Restraints South Korea

Drivers Restraints

2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020

Energy Security Rapidly changing


technology

Boosting technology export Lack of standards

Smart grid implementation Lack of private funding

Impact

High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan.

15
Drivers and Restraints Japan

Drivers Restraints

2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020

Infrastructure for EVs No clarity on technology to


deploy

Developing new industries Efficient grid


and enhanced services

Integration of renewable Vertically integrated power


energy into grid suppliers

Impact

High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan.

16
Asia Pacific AMI Market Size

Total APAC AMI market is expected


to generate a cumulative demand of
41 million meter units by 2017
The market is estimated to generate
revenues of about US$12.5 billion
from 2009 through 2017
Asia Pacific AMI Market size (USD million) The market is estimated to have a
2500.00
2000.00
700.00%
600.00%
CAGR of 69.32% for the period from
% growth
USD million

500.00%
1500.00 400.00%
300.00%
2009-2017
1000.00
200.00%
500.00
0.00
100.00%
0.00%
The growth will be fuelled by AMI
activity in Australia, New Zealand,
09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Year

Asia Pacific AMI Market Size (USD millions) % grow th


South Korea, Japan and Taiwan
Source: Frost & Sullivan
17
Key Growth Markets SEA/NA & Pacific
Japan

Market size of 4.16 billion


USD over the next 9 years

CAGR of 85% from 2009-


2017

South Korea

Market size of 3.15 billion


USD over the next 9 years

CAGR of 71% from 2009-


2017

Taiwan

Market size of 600 million


USD over the next 9 years

CAGR of 137% from 2009-


Australia
2017
Market size of 4.02 billion
USD over the next 9 years
New Zealand
CAGR of 70.45% from
2009-2017
Market size of 525 million
USD over the next 9 years

CAGR of 35% from 2009-


Source: Frost & Sullivan 2017

18
Asia Pacific Summary

The Asia Pacific advanced metering industry is in a nascent stage with rollouts expected to begin around 2011-2012

The Asia Pacific AMI market will be worth US$12.5 billion through 2017 and is likely to grow at at a CAGR of 69.3%
(2009-2017)

The growth in AMI is fuelled by Australia/New Zealand in the short term & Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the long term

Singapore is expected to begin rollout of AMI around 2015, with basic smart meter functionality

Thailand , Malaysia and Philippines are currently focused only on automated meter reading capabilities for
commercial & industrial consumers. No plans yet for a large scale residential roll out

Some of the key drivers for AMI in Asia Pacific include regulatory mandates, choice for customers, technology
upgrades, energy management and a move towards smart grids architecture

Major market restraints include financing issues, interoperability and lack of standards, limited experience &
reference instatallation s for the technology, and justifying the cost-benefit of AMI roll out

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Europe Smart Meters

20
Smart Meter
Key Drivers & Restraints

Increasing price of
electricity
encouraging the
need to reduce
expenses

Market Drivers
Well defined
legislations and Smart Meters
Smart meters are
directives enabling considered active
imperative for
utilities to adopt towards efficient
implementation
smart meters energy management
of smart grid
in T&D

Lack of a Global Economic


standardization in Slump slowing down

Market Restraints
communication new investments
protocols leading to towards smart meter
problems of and grid technology
interoperability

No clarity on
an apt
business case
inhibiting
market
adoption
Source: Frost & Sullivan.

21
Europe Market Measurements (Smart Meters)

Smart Meters Europe, 2008

Source: Frost & Sullivan

22
Europe Smart Meter
Geographical Hotspots

High
Sweden

Italy

Denmark
Degree of Implementation

Netherlands
Spain Finland
France

Ireland

Malta
United
Portugal
Austria Kingdom

Belgium

Poland
Germany

Czech
Republic
Cyprus
Latvia

Low Propensity towards smart meter investments High

23
Europe Summary

Europe push market smart meter and smart grid markets are legislation driven

The European smart meter industry is in a nascent stage with commercialisation expected to happen by 2012

Smart meters deployment are an integral part of smart grid

Europe has been very proactive with deployment almost complete in Italy and Sweden

The scope for smart grids does not end with the energy industry, but extends across different industries

Lack of clarity on an ideal business case and interoperability continue to cloud investors rational

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South Africa Smart Meters

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Market Drivers

The Amended Electricity Regulations Act of 2006 specifies that all end users
Government
with a monthly consumption of 500 kW or greater needs to have two-way
legislation
communication smart metering systems installed by 2012.

Smart meters will enable energy distributors to detect meter tampering or


Decrease in
electricity theft and remotely disconnect the electricity supply to these
theft/fraud
meters on detection.

Demand side management is expected to reduce energy consumption in the


Demand side
country by 3,000 MW by 2012 and Eskom has identified energy-efficient
management
metering as a key initiative for the success of this program.

When replacing meters due to natural wear and tear, electricity distributors
Replacement of
obsolete wish to replace these meters with the latest metering technology in order to
technology
avoid further subsequent replacement or conversion costs.

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Market Restraints

Substantial Implementation of mass smart meter rollouts represent a large capital


investment investment by municipalities.

There is currently no set compatibility specifications for the national


Compatibility standardization of the smart metering network. Until the NRS049 has been
standards reviewed and approved, electricity distributors will not tender for substantial
rollouts of smart metering systems.

Communication Potential Communication technologies to be used for the operations of


technology smart metering systems is still undecided within many municipal regions.

Smart metering represents a relatively new technological development


Expertise within the metering industry of South Africa. In this regard, there exists a
shortage certain lack of expertise within municipalities with regards to installation,
maintenance and repair of the product, as well as its operations

Consumer Initial resistance to the adoption of smart meter technology is expected by


adoption consumers, as it represents a forced change in consumer life style.

27
South African Electricity Meters Market

Electricity Meter Market: Market share per product type (South


Africa), 2008
The electricity meter market within South Africa is segmented
into three broad meter technologies: Credit meters, prepaid smart, 0.5%
credit, 26%
meters and smart meters.

The total market size of the electricity meter market within


South Africa is just over 11 million meters.
prepaid, 74%

credit prepaid smart


Total current market growth: 3.6 percent (2008)
Driven by electrification initiatives Source: Frost & Sullivan

Electricity Meter Market: Market Share per Product Type and


Sector (South Africa), 2008
The smart meter market is expected to experience a period of
100% 2%
rapid growth over the next five years 6%
90% 19%
Conversion initiatives 80%
70% 55%
Electrification initiatives 60% Smart
50% Prepaid
92%
40% 81% Credit
30%
20% 44%

10%
0%
Residential Commercial Industrial

Source: Frost & Sullivan

28
South Africa Market Revenue

Market Revenue
The total revenue of the electricity meter market is expected to Total Revenue Forecasts (South Africa), 2007-2014
reach $50.5 million by 2014
Growth in total market revenue is expected to increase
Smart Meters
substantially for the period 2009 - 2014
This is due to the roll out of more expensive smart meter
systems Credit Meters
CAGR for product categories (2007 2014)
credit meter market:: -6.13per cent Prepaid Meters
prepaid meter market:: -5.9per cent
smart meter market: 57.2 per cent
Forecast Revenue Growth (South Africa), 2008 - 2014

Smart Meters Prepaid Meters Credit Meters

Source: Frost & Sullivan


2008 market size Forecasted market size (2014)

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USA AMI

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USA Market Measurements - AMI

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Market Drivers and Restraints

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USA AMI Market Forecasts

33
Thank You
Q&A

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