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routing dynamics
AS Updates
elements Infere
n ces
da tes
Up
Redistribute information AS Health
Monitor (HM)
Turbulent
Time?
Time
Quiescent: Assume bursts of updates to a single prefix are
correlated
Turbulent: Assume updates to many prefixes are correlated
Assuming correlated observations are independent worsens
precision, but assuming independent observations are correlated
worsens accuracy
Our approach
Updates from a
single view
Detection Algorithm
Quiescent Turbulent
Suspect set
C
3000 prefixes
2000 D
V A B
4000
2000 E
2000 prefixes
2000
Scenario #1:
~1000 prefixes updated that used (A,C)
(A,C) suspect
Scenario #2:
~4000 prefixes updated that used (A,B), ~2000 that used (B,E)
(A,B) suspect
Scenario #3:
~2000 prefixes updated that used (A,B), ~2000 that used (B,E)
(B,E) suspect
TurbulentInfer: Issues
Link/router repair
MED/LocalPref decrease
Hold-down expired
Previous path
Potential causes (blue):
worsened
Link/router failure
MED/LocalPref increase
Hold-down triggered
QuiescentInfer:
Inference across views
Observed V1
event
A
D D
Observed
event V2 Event did not
(i) Observed by two views occur here
Simultaneous events:
Eg. Flap in one view, Reroute in another
Eg 2. Advertisement in one view, Withdrawal in another
Community attribute changes
Community change can trigger reroute several hops away
Multiple peering links
AS 1 AS 1 AS 3 AS 4
AS 3 AS 4
AS 2 AS 5 AS 2 AS 5