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Probability and statistics

M 381

Total Probability
Bayess Rule
Counting Rules
Bayess Rule : Suppose that events A1, A2, . . . ,
Ak are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Then
for any event B,
P(Ai ) P(B | Ai )
P(Ai | B) =
=1 P(Aj ) P(B | Aj )
Ex : 7.0% of the population has lung disease. Of
those having lung disease, 90.0% are smokers;
of those not having lung disease, 25.3% are
smokers. Determine the probability that a
randomly selected person is:
a) A smoker
b) A smoker has lung disease.
Ex: Principals rent cars from three agencies: 60%
from A1, 30% from A2, and 10% from A3. If 9%
of the cars from A1 are defective, 20% from A2
are defective and 6% of the cars from A3 are
a) what is the probability that a rental car will
be defective?
b) If the rental car is defective, what is the
probability that it came from A2?