Solar FAQs and Global Renewable Energy

Premise:
The Sun is a singular C-neutral solution
to our future energy needs, one whose capacity
dwarfs fossil, nuclear, wind,

Purpose of Solar FAQs document:

Compile self-consistent set
of supporting analyses and references
 Overarching Assumptions
1. By 2050 well need 15 TW, by 2100 30 TW, of new power
= N (GDP/N) (/GDP)
Even if N saturates and /GDP continues to decrease, GDP/N
will increase

2. All or most of this new power should be C-neutral

1-2 GtC/yr emissions (1940s level) implies 550 ppmv
atmospheric C and T~2C, and is already considered risky
6-7 GtC/yr emissions (2000s level) is (perhaps nonlinearly)
riskier

3. All of most of this new C-neutral power must be chemical

80% of energy consumed at point-of-use is chemical
 Estimating Theoretical Potentials

1-3 ms/century
lengthening ~ 0 TW
of the day human harvesting
Pfill (constant)
pharvest (variable)

2.4 TW
tidal friction
E/tdiss (variable)

Steady State: Pfill = E/tdiss + pharvest

No harvesting: Pfill = E/tdiss
Max harvesting: Pfill = pharvest
Estimating Extractable & Technical Potentials

Heat (TWt)

Thermodynamic limit (1-Tl/Th)

Mechanical (TWm) Theoretical

~1/2 of Betz (16/27=59%) limit (33%)

Electrical (TWe)

2010 EERE H2O electrolysis efficiency target (75%)

Chemical (TWc) Extractable

Fraction allowed by known technology

Chemical (TWc) Technical

Table of Results
 15 TWe = 0.17% of the earths surface
(~ Venezuela) at 10% efficiency

Artic Circle Solar

Photons
Theoretical
89,000 TWp 100%
Tropic
of Cancer
170,000 TWp

Heat
Thermodynamic
limit for Thermodynamic limit for
concentrated concentrated sunlight (87%)
Tropic sunlight (87%)
of Capricorn Thermodynamic Mechanical
limit for un-
concentrated
sunlight (68%) 33%

Antarctic Circle
Electrical Electrical
75% 75%
Average solar energy density
W/m2
40% Torrid 225 Chemical Chemical Chemical
Extractable
52% Temperate 150 58,000 TWc 61,000 TWc 19,000 TWc
8% Frigid 75
Land only (29%) and Temperate+Torrid only (97%)
Average 175
Current best PV efficiency Current photo-electrolysis Current best steam engine
Nelson 2003 Fig 2.3 (40%/87%) efficiency (10%/68%) efficiency (30%/28.7%)
[Note: switchgrass
efficiency is 0.38%]
Chemical Chemical Chemical
Technical
7,500 TWc 2,500 TWc 5,600 TWc

Chemical Chemical Chemical

2001 Actual
0.15 GWc 190 GWc 0.6 GWc
IEA PVPS 2004 WEA 2004 WEA 2004
(1/5 of peak capacity) (sustainable only) (active only)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html Wind
Class 3 (~400 W/m2) @ 50m
Photons
110,000 TWp
100%
Heat
Thermodynamics 1-Tl/Th (~0.84%)

Mechanical
1,000 TWm Theoretical

33%
Average wind
energy density:
Electrical
2 W/m2
Wallace 1977 75%

Chemical Extractable
250 TWc

Land only (29%)

> Class 3 only (~20-27% x 2)
Lateral replenishment from over oceans?
Vertical replenishment from jet stream?

Chemical
Energy dissipation time ~ 8-9 days Technical
14 TWc
Cell circulation time ~ 2-5 days WEA 2000

Wallace 1977 Chemical 2001 Actual

Hodell and Thomas (U Florida atmospheric circulation website) 5 GWc
http://ess.geology.ufl.edu/ess/Notes/AtmosphericCirculation/atmosphere.html
WEA 2004
 6 kW/m

Ocean Waves

20 knots
50 km

6s 1m

Mechanical Theoretical
34 TWm

http://www.seafriends.org.nz/oceano/waves.htm Wick 1977 33%

Electrical
TWe
75%
Artic Circle
Average wave energy density
in ice-free oceans: Chemical Extractable
0.114 Wm/m2 8.5 TWc
Tropic Wick 1977
of Cancer
Near-shore only (7%)

Chemical
Technical
Tropic
of Capricorn
0.62 TWc
Isaacs 1976

Chemical
2001 Actual
Antarctic Circle ~0 GWc
WEA 2004
 ~2/3 Radiogenic
~1/3 Conduction through or cooling of lithosphere
http://www.mantleplumes.org/Energetics.html Geothermal
Heat
Mantle Theoretical
1000-4000C 44 TWt

Thermodynamic limit for T~75C (1-Tl/Th ~ 25%)

Outer core

Mechanical
Inner
TWm
core
33%
IGA 2004

Electrical
80 km thick lithosphere TWe

75%

Average geothermal power density Chemical Extractable

W/m2 2.8 TWc
39% Land + Continental Shelves 0.065
Land only (29% x 0.065/0.087)
61% Ocean 0.101 High-temperature (>150C) only (?%)
Average 0.087 Thermodynamic limit for T~150C (50%/25%)
Lowrie 1997
Chemical
Technical
1.9 TWc
IGA 2004

Chemical
5 GWc 2001 Actual
WEA 2004
(includes heat with conversion)
 Summary

106
Sources with > 15 TW Solar Theoretical Potentials > 15 TWc:
extractable and technical Electricity Solar, Wind, Waves, Geothermal
potential Solar
Thermal
Technical Potential (TWc)

103 Solar
Fuel
Extractable Potentials > 15 TWc:
Solar, Wind, maybe Waves
Wind

Geothermal
Hydropower
1 Ocean
Ocean Salinity Gradient
Wave
Technical Potentials > 15 TW:
Ocean Tidal
Ocean Solar, maybe Wind
Surface
Currents

Ocean Thermal Gradient

10-3
2001 Supply 2001 Actual > 15 TW:
None even close

10-6
10-6 10-3 1 103 106
Extractable Potential (TWc)