Cambodia:

Issues & Challenges

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
Defence Intelligence Organisation:
Southeast Asia Program
ANU National Security College
November 15, 2017

1
 Objectives
To understand:
1. The key defining features of Cambodia,
politically, economically, and socially and its
worldview and strategic significance
2. Cambodias key security-related
challenges, and political, social or other
fault-lines and tensions which could lead to
security challenges

2
 Outline
Historical and Geographic Overview
Economy
Politics
Society and social media
Armed Forces
Foreign Relations
Challenges

3
Historical and
Geostrategic
Overview
Khmer Empire
9th-15th
Century
Geography Cracked Saucer
Cambodias Ethnic Groups

Khmer 97.6%
Cham 1.2%
Vietnamese 0.1%
Chinese 0.1%
Others 0.9%
Population 16.2 million
 Cambodias Geo-Strategic Setting
Land borders with Thailand, Laos
and Vietnam
Asymmetric power relations with
two neighbours
Maritime disputes with Thailand and
Viet Nam impact on development
Downstream on Mekong River
Mekong Sub-
Region Yunan
province
Cambodia is a
down stream
state affected
by up stream
develop-
ments in
southern
China and
Laos

8
Preah Vihear Temple Dispute

9
Overlapping Claims Offshore

10
 Economy
Growth rate 7% since 2010
GDP (ppp) $59 billion (2016)
GDP nominal $20.2 billion (2016)
Exports $9.2 billion
Clothing, timber, rubber, rice, fish, tobacco,
footwear
Imports $12.7 billion
Petroleum products, cigarettes, gold, construction
materials, machinery, motor vehicles,
pharmaceuticals
11
 Economy
Exports Imports
US 21.3% China 35.3%
UK 9.4% Thailand 14.8%
Germany 9% Vietnam 11%
Japan 8.2% Singapore 4.4%
Canada 6.6% Japan 4.1%
Thailand 6% Hong Kong 4%
Spain 4%
12
 Political Overview

Kingdom
of
Cambodia

13
Cambodias Political Systems
French Protectorate (1867-53)
Monarchy (1953-70)
Republic (1970-75)
Khmer Rouge/Pol Pot (1975-79)
Vietnamese occupation (1979-89)
One-party regime (1989-93)
Liberal Multi-Party Democracy
 Main Political Parties
Cambodian Peoples Party (CPP)
FUNCINPEC (Royalist)
Sam Rainsy Party (SRP)
Human Rights Party (HRP)
Cambodian National Rescue Party
(CNRP)
Formed 2012 merger of SRP and HRP
15
Prime Minister Hun Sen

Longest serving
Prime Minister in the
world, 1985-
Former Khmer Rouge
Battalion commander
Vows to stay in office
another ten years
 Cambodia National Elections

123 seats (62 to form majority). In 2008 CPP held 90 seats,

dropped to 68 in 2013 (loss of 22). SRP and HRP held 29
seats in 2008, they won 55 seats in 2013 (increase of 26).
CPP majority fell to 13 seats.
 Growing Political Repression
CNRP deputy Hong Sok Hour convicted of
forging and publishing public documents
(11/16)
CNRP deputy Um San An convicted for
inciting discrimination & social instability
(10/16)
CNRP Acting Leader Kem Sokha removed
as official leader of oppositionLand rights
campaigners jailed
18
 Growing Political Repression
Law on Political Parties amended
Law on Associations and NGOs
Land rights campaigners jailed
Chinese-supplied surveillance cameras
become operational
Social activist Kem Ley murdered
National Democratic Institute closed

19
 Commune Elections June 4, 2017
CPP lost 2,225 chiefs and councillor seats
But CPP controlled 1,156 or 70% of
communes
CNRP gained 2,501 chiefs and councillor
seats (>12 times since 2012)
CPP received 51% of vote 6,503 seats
CNRP received 46% of vote 5,007 seats
Election seen as bell weather for 2018
20
 Growing Political Repression
CNRP leader Kem Sokha arrested on
charges of treason (9/17)
Cambodian Daily forced to close (9/17)
>32 radio stations that rebroadcast
critical commentary by VOA and RFA
forced off air or dropped programming
Voice of Democracy cut off by all stations
CNRP to be disbanded seats redistributed
21
22
 Social Issues
Government corruption
Highest in Southeast Asia (Transparency
International)
Land grabbing/illegal logging
Youth disenchantment
Wealth gap, endemic cronyism, greater
political and social freedom
Anti-Vietnamese and Chinese sentiment

23
 Social Media
70% of Cambodians use social media
Facebook
Used by Hun Sen
Sam Rainsy posted 1979 Border Treaty
Forging a public document sentenced in absentia
Defamation cases proliferate
Twitter
Fresh News (government outlet)

24
Royal Cambodian Armed Forces
124,300 regular forces
75,000 Army
2,800 Navy
1,500 Air Force
45,000 provincial
67,000 paramilitary (Gendarmerie)
6 Military Regions
US $446 million 2014
 Royal Cambodian Armed Forces
Four Primary Roles
1. Defending the country and national interests
2. Ensuring security, safety and social order
3. Contributing to national construction
4. Enhancing international cooperation
 Cambodias Force Posture
Flexible and controlled response
Border protection forces
Surveillance and information collection
Community development in remote areas
Internal security and stability
Navy protection of off shore
infrastructure, islands and resources
International cooperation and
engagement
 Military
Region
Commands
Border protection
Territorial integrity
Internal security
and stability
Reform of RCAF
economy is forecast to average 7.2 per cent anti-aircraft guns. Cambodia relies heavily on
real growth to 2020, according to the IMF. China for military aid and capability
procurement.
Cambodia Defence Budget

29
11
% Government Spending on Defence

30
Defence Spending v GDP Growth

31
 Cambodia-China Relations
Long-term cooperation agreement (2000)
high-level exchanges including defence ministers
MOU defence cooperation (2003)
Military training and equipment
Donation of 15 patrol boats (2005 and 2007)
Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation
(April 2006) raisied to Comprehensive Strategic
Partnership for Cooperation (2010)

32
 Cambodia-China Relations

China is Cambodias largest trade,

investment and aid partner
Resources & infrastructure
Non-interference in internal affairs
Cambodia is supportive of Chinese foreign
policy especially in South China Sea

33
 Cambodia-China Relations
Royal Cambodian Armed Forces
dependent on Chinese assistance
Training facilities built by China
Chinese language for officer corps in
Cambodia and then China
1st naval training exercise (12/16)
Golden Dragon EX eight-day joint military
exercise 1,000 soldiers (12/16)

34
 Cambodia-U.S. Relations
US PACOM Theater Security Cooperation
Annual visits by US Pacific Fleet Commanders
USS Gary, USS Essex & USS Tortuga port visits
Trade and Investment Framework Agreement
(TIFA), 2006
First ministerial level meeting held November 2007
Global Peace Operations Initiative
Cambodia hosted capstone exercise with 2,000
troops from the region for UN service
Obamas Lower Mekong Initiative
Deteriorating Relations 2016-17
US Congressmen call for return of
political exiles (2016)
7 US Senators express concern (2/16)
US official warns if armed forces
become involved in election repression
(7/16)
Hun Sen compares demonstrations in
U.S. after Trump elected to 2013
unrest in Cambodia (12/16)
Deteriorating Relations 2016-17
Hun Sen calls on U.S. to cancel $500m
dirty debt dating to Khmer Republic
period (12/16)
Ankor Sentinel EX cancelled for 2 years
(1/17), CARAT drills ended
US Ambassador disappointed in lack of
dialogue by political parties (2/17)
 Rising Anti-Americanism
Hun Sen invokes Trumps attacks on
US media to justify his actions (2/17)
US Navy Mobile Construction Battalion
(Seabees) ordered to leave (4/17)
Voice of America, Radio Free Asia and
Voice of Democracy (Cambodian
Center for Independent Media)
broadcast critical commentary on eve
of commune elections
 Rising Anti-Americanism
To Tell the Truth issued (4/17)
CNRP, NGOs, US Govt charged with
disinformation and colour revolution
Government spokesperson
criticizes U.S. bombing of Syria,
accuses U.S. of racism and police
brutality (4/17)
US Embassy: #RedHerringsKH (9/17)
 Cambodia-Japan Relations
Second largest provider of ODA
grants, technical cooperation, loans
Assistance for Khmer Rouge Tribunal
Joint Statement on Partnership (June
2007)
Strategic Partnership (December 2013)
Defence MOU
13.8 billion ($134 million) in new loans for
infrastructure projects
 Cambodia-Russia Relations
First military exercises with Russian
Navy held November 2017
Leaders met on APEC sidelines
Russia offers assistance for 2018
national elections (monitors)
Working Group established to resolve
Cambodian debts

41
 Australia-Cambodia Relations
Recent High-Level Visits

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop (2/14)

MOU Voluntary Resettlement of Refuges
from Nauru to Cambodia
Minister for Immigration and Border
Protection (3/15)
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the
Interior Sar Kheng (3/15)

42
 Australia-Cambodia Relations
Recent High-Level Visits
Minister for Immigration and Border
Protection (9/15)
11th High Level Consultations on Aid held
in Canberra (10/16)
Led by Minister attached to Prime Minster
National Assembly deputies (3/16)
Minister for International Development
and the Pacific (3/17)

43
MOU on Senior Officials Talks

Australias Ambassador and Cambodias Foreign Minister

44
 Security Related Challenges
Preserving liberal multiparty democracy
Upholding rule of law
Free and fair elections in 2018
Maintaining domestic political stability
Maintaining economic growth
EU Anything but Arms
Lower middle income country
Managing relations with China and U.S.
45
 Security Related Challenges
Dam construction on upper Mekong
Repairing relations with Thailand

Future Role in Region

Chinese surrogate
Common cause with other non-democratic states
Spoiler of ASEAN unity
ASEAN mendicant

46
 Cambodia:
Issues and Challenges

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Email: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au

47