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Project Management

Scheduling - Organizing Tasks

Goals

Network Diagrams

Definition

Types

Construct

Critical path

Slack

Gantt Charts

Relationships

MSP view

Probability

8-2

Ineffective Scheduling

Notice:

As of tomorrow, employees will only

be able to access the building using

individual security cards. Pictures

will be taken next Wednesday, and

employees will receive their cards in

two weeks.

3

Background

Schedule is the conversion of a project action plan into

an operating timetable

Basis for monitoring a project

One of the major project management tools

Work changes daily, so a detailed plan is essential

Not all project activities need to be scheduled at the

same level of detail

Most of the scheduling is at the WBS level, not the work

package level

Only the most critical work packages may be shown on

the schedule

Most of the scheduling is based on network drawings

8-4

Network Scheduling Advantage

Consistent framework

Shows interdependences

Shows when resources are needed

Facilitates proper communication

Determines expected completion date

Identifies critical activities

8-5

Network Scheduling Advantage Continued

Shows which of the activities can be delayed

Determines start dates

Shows which task must be coordinated

Shows which task can be run parallel

Relieves some conflict

Allows probabilistic estimates

8-6

Terminology

Activity - A specific task or set of tasks that are required by the project,

use up resources, and take time to complete

Event - The result of completing one or more activities

Network - The combination of all activities and events that define a

project

Drawn left-to-right

Connections represent predecessors

Path - A series of connected activities

Critical - An activity, event, or path which, if delayed, will delay the

completion of the project

Critical Path - The path through the project where, if any activity is

delayed, the project is delayed

There is always a critical path

There can be more than one critical path

Sequential Activities - One activity must be completed before the next

one can begin

Parallel Activities - The activities can take place at the same time

Immediate Predecessor - That activity that must be completed just

before a particular activity can begin

8-7

Two Types of Network Diagrams

Critical Path Method (CPM)

Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) - PMI

Activity-on-Node (AON)

Can be used to calculate the critical path(s) & slack

Emphasized in this class

Used by MS Project and other computer programs

Easier to draw for simple projects

Emphasizes activities

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) - PMI

Activity-on-Arrow (AOA)

Can require dummy activities

Not used in this class, but good to know

Less in style due to lack of use by computer programs

Simpler for projects with many dependencies

Emphasizes events; milestones can be easily flagged

8-8

Network Scheduling Techniques

PERT was developed for the Polaris missile &

submarine project in 1958

CPM developed by DuPont during the same time

Initially, CPM and PERT were two different

approaches

CPM used deterministic time estimates and allowed

project crunching

PERT used probabilistic time estimates

Microsoft Project (and others) have blended CPM

and PERT into one approach

8-9

Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) Networks

c e

b

g

d f

k

k

k or j

j j

Activity Predecessor m r

m _

_

n

r m, n

n s

s n

10

Activity-on-Arrow (AOA or ADM) Network

(Final Network)

a d g

j

b e h

k

f i

11

AON and AOA Format

Figure 8-2

Figure 8-3

8-12

Constructing a Network

Begin with START activity box

Add activities without precedences as nodes

There will always be one

May be more

Add activities that have those activities as

precedences

Continue

8-13

AON Example: Getting Ready

8-14

AON: Example 2

Activity Immediate

Predecessors

A --

B A Developing a

network is a

C B mechanistic

D B process

E C, D

F E

15

AON: Example 2

Activity Immediate

Predecessors

A --

B A

Start

A

C B

D B

E C, D

F E

16

AON: Example 2

Activity Immediate

Predecessors

A --

B A

Start

A B

C B

D B

E C, D

F E

17

AON: Example 2

Activity Immediate

Predecessors

A -- C

B A

Start

A B

C B

D B

E C, D

F E

18

AON: Example 2

Activity Immediate

Predecessors

A -- C

B A

Start

A B

C B

D B

E C, D D

F E

19

AON: Example 2

Activity Immediate

Predecessors

A -- C

B A

Start

A B E

C B

D B

E C, D D

F E

20

AON: Example 2

Activity Immediate

Predecessors

A -- C

B A

Start

End

A B E F

C B

D B

E C, D D

F E

21

AON: Example 3

AON: Example 3

8-23

AON: Example 3

8-24

AON: Example 3

8-25

Textbook AON Example

Textbook AON Example

Calculating Activity Times

TE

a 4m b

= Time Expected

6

b a

2

2

6

= Variance

= Standard Deviation

Complete Table of Time Estimates

Information Contents in AON Node

8-30

Textbook Example: Activity Time

Information Contents in AON Node

8-32

Determining Earliest Times for Activities

Forward Pass:

for the uncompleted portions of all network activities

PMBOK

8-33

Forward Pass

0 0 0

34

Determining Latest Times for Activities

Backward Pass:

dates for the uncompleted portions of all schedule

activities. Determined by working backwards through the

schedule network logic from the projects end date. The

end date may be calculated in the forward pass or

determined by the customer or sponsor

PMBOK

8-35

Late Start = Late Finish Duration

0 0 0

0 4 0

36

Textbook Example

Textbook Example: Slack Values

Textbook Example: Slack

0

0 5 0

1 9

4 1 1

Textbook Example: Critical Path

Textbook Example: PERT Template

Getting Ready AON: Dependencies

activity, but about the sequence

8-42

Precedence Diagrams: Gantt Charts

Estimating Activity Durations

hours required to complete a task

on an activity plus the elapsed time

8-44

Uncertainty of Project Completion Time

Generally it is assumed that times are set or

deterministic, that is no variation or error

Always error that should be accounted for

Already discussed Time Expected (TE)

TE weights times based on likelihood of occurring

Assume activities are statistically independent

Impacting one doesnt affect another

Variance of a set of activities is the sum of the

individual variances

Interested in variances along the critical path

8-45

Basic Statistics

8-46

Probability Calculation

Based on cumulative single tail probabilities of the

normal probability distribution

Z

(D )

50 43

7

1.22

2

33 5.745

(D )

) 50 43

50 43

7

1.

D Z 43 5.74512.645

52.45

Z (D 22

2

33 Z 5

.745

33

D = desired

(D ) D

= critical

completion time

5043 Z 7 43 5.745 1.645 52.45

Z time; sum of critical

1.22 path times

= variance

2 5.745path; sum of variances on critical path

33 of critical

Z = number of standard deviations

D Z 43 5.745

D Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45 8-47

Normal Probability Distribution 1

8-48

Textbook Example: Probability 1

Z

50 time;

= critical

43

D = desired completion time

(D ) 7

sum of critical

1.22 path times

2 = variance 5.745path; sum of variances on critical path

33 of critical

Z = number of standard deviations

Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45

D Example:

Critical path found to be 43 days. Variances total 33 (A=4, D=25, J=4).

What is probability of completing in 50 days?

Z

(D )

50 43

7

1.22

2 33 5.745

D Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45

8-49

Normal Probability Distribution 1

8-50

Textbook Example: Probability 1

Z

50 time;

= critical

43

D = desired completion time

(D ) 7

sum of critical

1.22 path times

2 = variance 5.745path; sum of variances on critical path

33 of critical

Z = number of standard deviations

Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45

D Example:

Critical path found to be 43 days. Variances total 33 (A=4, D=25, J=4).

What is probability of completing in 50 days?

Z

(D )

50 43

7

1.22

2 33 5.745

Z = 1.22 = 89%

D Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45

8-51

Textbook Example: Probability 2

50 time;

43

(D ) 50 43

D = desired completion time

(D ) 7

Z = critical

sum of critical

1.22 path times 7

Z

2 = variance

5.745path; sum of variances on critical path

33 of critical

Z = number of standard deviations

52.45

D Z 43 5.7451.645

Example:

2

33 5.745

Critical path found to be 43 days. Variances total 33 (A=4, D=25, J=4).

What deadline is consistent with a 95% completion probability?

(D ) 50 43 7

43 5.7451.645

Z 1.22

D Z 33 2

5.745

D Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45

8-52

Normal Probability Distribution 2

8-53

Textbook Example: Probability 2

Z

50 time;

= critical

43

D = desired completion time

(D ) 7

sum of critical

1.22 path times

2 = variance 5.745path; sum of variances on critical path

33 of critical

(D ) 50 43

Z = number of standard deviations

7

Z Z 43 5.745

D Example: 1.645

52.45

1.22

Critical path 5 .745

2

found to be 43 33

days. Variances total 33 (A=4, D=25, J=4).

What deadline is consistent with a 95% completion probability?

Z

(D )

50 43 7

1.22

D Z 2

33 55.745

43

.745 1.645 52.45

Answer Z 43

D depends on .7451.645 and

5rounding definition of day,

52.45

so 52.5, 52, or 53 could be correct depending on

context.

8-54

Example: PERT Template

8-55

Questions?

Comments?

Concerns?

8-56

Individual Project

Include the MicroSoft Project network as image in

write-up

What is the critical path?

8-57

Group Project

Include the MicroSoft Project network as image in

write-up

Discuss the critical path

Discuss any important features

8-58

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