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OPIM 3801: Principles of

Project Management
Scheduling - Organizing Tasks
Goals
Network Diagrams
Definition
Types
Construct
Critical path
Slack
Gantt Charts
Relationships
MSP view
Probability

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Ineffective Scheduling
Notice:
As of tomorrow, employees will only
be able to access the building using
individual security cards. Pictures
will be taken next Wednesday, and
employees will receive their cards in
two weeks.

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Background
Schedule is the conversion of a project action plan into
an operating timetable
Basis for monitoring a project
One of the major project management tools
Work changes daily, so a detailed plan is essential
Not all project activities need to be scheduled at the
same level of detail
Most of the scheduling is at the WBS level, not the work
package level
Only the most critical work packages may be shown on
the schedule
Most of the scheduling is based on network drawings

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Network Scheduling Advantage
Consistent framework
Shows interdependences
Shows when resources are needed
Facilitates proper communication
Determines expected completion date
Identifies critical activities

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Network Scheduling Advantage Continued
Shows which of the activities can be delayed
Determines start dates
Shows which task must be coordinated
Shows which task can be run parallel
Relieves some conflict
Allows probabilistic estimates

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Terminology
Activity - A specific task or set of tasks that are required by the project,
use up resources, and take time to complete
Event - The result of completing one or more activities
Network - The combination of all activities and events that define a
project
Drawn left-to-right
Connections represent predecessors
Path - A series of connected activities
Critical - An activity, event, or path which, if delayed, will delay the
completion of the project
Critical Path - The path through the project where, if any activity is
delayed, the project is delayed
There is always a critical path
There can be more than one critical path
Sequential Activities - One activity must be completed before the next
one can begin
Parallel Activities - The activities can take place at the same time
Immediate Predecessor - That activity that must be completed just
before a particular activity can begin
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Two Types of Network Diagrams
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) - PMI
Activity-on-Node (AON)
Can be used to calculate the critical path(s) & slack
Emphasized in this class
Used by MS Project and other computer programs
Easier to draw for simple projects
Emphasizes activities
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) - PMI
Activity-on-Arrow (AOA)
Can require dummy activities
Not used in this class, but good to know
Less in style due to lack of use by computer programs
Simpler for projects with many dependencies
Emphasizes events; milestones can be easily flagged
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Network Scheduling Techniques
PERT was developed for the Polaris missile &
submarine project in 1958
CPM developed by DuPont during the same time
Initially, CPM and PERT were two different
approaches
CPM used deterministic time estimates and allowed
project crunching
PERT used probabilistic time estimates
Microsoft Project (and others) have blended CPM
and PERT into one approach

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Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) Networks
c e
b
g
d f

k
k
k or j

j j

Dashed lines are called dummy activities

Activity Predecessor m r
m _
_
n
r m, n
n s
s n

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Activity-on-Arrow (AOA or ADM) Network
(Final Network)

a d g
j

b e h
k

f i

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AON and AOA Format

Figure 8-2

Figure 8-3

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Constructing a Network
Begin with START activity box
Add activities without precedences as nodes
There will always be one
May be more
Add activities that have those activities as
precedences
Continue

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AON Example: Getting Ready

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AON: Example 2
Activity Immediate
Predecessors
A --
B A Developing a
network is a
C B mechanistic
D B process
E C, D
F E

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AON: Example 2
Activity Immediate
Predecessors
A --
B A

Start
A
C B
D B
E C, D
F E

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AON: Example 2
Activity Immediate
Predecessors
A --
B A

Start
A B
C B
D B
E C, D
F E

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AON: Example 2
Activity Immediate
Predecessors
A -- C

B A

Start
A B
C B
D B
E C, D
F E

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AON: Example 2
Activity Immediate
Predecessors
A -- C

B A

Start
A B
C B
D B
E C, D D

F E

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AON: Example 2
Activity Immediate
Predecessors
A -- C

B A

Start
A B E
C B
D B
E C, D D

F E

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AON: Example 2
Activity Immediate
Predecessors
A -- C

B A

Start

End
A B E F
C B
D B
E C, D D

F E

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AON: Example 3
AON: Example 3

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AON: Example 3

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AON: Example 3

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Textbook AON Example

Table 8-1 8-26


Textbook AON Example

Figure 8-13 8-27


Calculating Activity Times

TE
a 4m b
= Time Expected
6
b a
2

2

6
= Variance

= Standard Deviation

Table 8-1 8-28


Complete Table of Time Estimates

Table 8-1 & 8-2 8-29


Information Contents in AON Node

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Textbook Example: Activity Time

Figure 8-15 8-31


Information Contents in AON Node

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Determining Earliest Times for Activities

Forward Pass:

The calculation of the early start and early finish dates


for the uncompleted portions of all network activities
PMBOK

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Forward Pass
0 0 0

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Determining Latest Times for Activities

Backward Pass:

The calculation of the late finish dates and late start


dates for the uncompleted portions of all schedule
activities. Determined by working backwards through the
schedule network logic from the projects end date. The
end date may be calculated in the forward pass or
determined by the customer or sponsor
PMBOK

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Late Start = Late Finish Duration
0 0 0

0 4 0

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Textbook Example

Figure 8-16 8-37


Textbook Example: Slack Values

Table 8-3 8-38


Textbook Example: Slack
0

0 5 0

1 9

4 1 1

Figure 8-16 8-39


Textbook Example: Critical Path

Figure 8-16 8-40


Textbook Example: PERT Template

Table 8-1 8-41


Getting Ready AON: Dependencies

Which ones are mandatory which ones are discretionary?

Its not about the necessity of the


activity, but about the sequence
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Precedence Diagrams: Gantt Charts

Figure 8-17 8-43


Estimating Activity Durations

Work (or Effort) is the number of workdays or work


hours required to complete a task

Duration includes the actual amount of time worked


on an activity plus the elapsed time

Work = Duration x Units

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Uncertainty of Project Completion Time
Generally it is assumed that times are set or
deterministic, that is no variation or error
Always error that should be accounted for
Already discussed Time Expected (TE)
TE weights times based on likelihood of occurring
Assume activities are statistically independent
Impacting one doesnt affect another
Variance of a set of activities is the sum of the
individual variances
Interested in variances along the critical path

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Basic Statistics

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Probability Calculation
Based on cumulative single tail probabilities of the
normal probability distribution
Z
(D )

50 43

7
1.22
2
33 5.745

(D )
) 50 43
50 43
7
1.
D Z 43 5.74512.645
52.45
Z (D 22
2

33 Z 5
.745
33

D = desired
(D ) D
= critical
completion time
5043 Z 7 43 5.745 1.645 52.45
Z time; sum of critical
1.22 path times
= variance
2 5.745path; sum of variances on critical path
33 of critical
Z = number of standard deviations
D Z 43 5.745
D Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45 8-47
Normal Probability Distribution 1

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Textbook Example: Probability 1

Z
50 time;
= critical

43
D = desired completion time
(D ) 7
sum of critical
1.22 path times
2 = variance 5.745path; sum of variances on critical path
33 of critical
Z = number of standard deviations

Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45
D Example:
Critical path found to be 43 days. Variances total 33 (A=4, D=25, J=4).
What is probability of completing in 50 days?

Z
(D )

50 43

7
1.22
2 33 5.745

D Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45
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Normal Probability Distribution 1

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Textbook Example: Probability 1

Z
50 time;
= critical

43
D = desired completion time
(D ) 7
sum of critical
1.22 path times
2 = variance 5.745path; sum of variances on critical path
33 of critical
Z = number of standard deviations

Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45
D Example:
Critical path found to be 43 days. Variances total 33 (A=4, D=25, J=4).
What is probability of completing in 50 days?

Z
(D )

50 43

7
1.22
2 33 5.745

Z = 1.22 = 89%
D Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45
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Textbook Example: Probability 2

50 time;
43
(D ) 50 43
D = desired completion time
(D ) 7
Z = critical
sum of critical
1.22 path times 7
Z
2 = variance

5.745path; sum of variances on critical path
33 of critical
Z = number of standard deviations
52.45
D Z 43 5.7451.645
Example:
2
33 5.745
Critical path found to be 43 days. Variances total 33 (A=4, D=25, J=4).
What deadline is consistent with a 95% completion probability?

(D ) 50 43 7
43 5.7451.645
Z 1.22
D Z 33 2

5.745

D Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45

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Normal Probability Distribution 2

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Textbook Example: Probability 2

Z
50 time;
= critical

43
D = desired completion time
(D ) 7
sum of critical
1.22 path times
2 = variance 5.745path; sum of variances on critical path
33 of critical
(D ) 50 43
Z = number of standard deviations
7
Z Z 43 5.745
D Example: 1.645
52.45
1.22
Critical path 5 .745
2

found to be 43 33
days. Variances total 33 (A=4, D=25, J=4).
What deadline is consistent with a 95% completion probability?

Z
(D )

50 43 7
1.22
D Z 2
33 55.745
43
.745 1.645 52.45
Answer Z 43
D depends on .7451.645 and
5rounding definition of day,
52.45
so 52.5, 52, or 53 could be correct depending on
context.
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Example: PERT Template

AKAthe magic spreadsheet

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Questions?

Comments?

Concerns?

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Individual Project
Include the MicroSoft Project network as image in
write-up
What is the critical path?

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Group Project
Include the MicroSoft Project network as image in
write-up
Discuss the critical path
Discuss any important features

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