CLIMATE AND MATHEMATICS

1.1 EARTHS CLIMATE SYSTEM

Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get

Climate is weather averaged over space and time, so local variations and diurnal
(day and night) and random fluctuations have been eliminated.

Climate change refers to changes in statistics of weather over time

Schematic view of the Earths Climate System
1.2 MODELING EARTHS CLIMATE
We would need to select variables that describe the climate system (air temperature,
humidity, fractions of aerosols and trace gases in atmosphere, strength of ocean
currents, rate of evaporation from vegetation cover, change in land use due to
natural cycles and human activity, many more), take the rules that govern their
evolution (laws of motion for gases and fluids, chemical reaction laws, land use and
vegetation pattern, and so on), and translate all into this into language of
mathematics.
1.3 CONCEPTUAL MODELS
Earths climate system is a heat engine that is driven by the Sun

The earth receives energy from the sun and maintains a balance by radiating energy
back into space. If too much energy is radiated back, the climate system will cool off,
if not enough is radiated back it will heat up. This principle is formalized in an Energy
Balance Model.
An Energy balance model showing that the Earths climate system can have multiple equilibrium states
1.4 CLIMATE AND STATISTICS

Global Mean Temperature Anomalies for The Period 1960 2011relative to the average global mean
temperature since 1880 with various trend lines and records.
 Most temperature anomalies for the last 50 years are positive. Therefore, the last 50
years have been warmer than the previous half-century, and global warming is a
reality
A trend line for the years 1960 2011 (the solid line) shows a mean increase of the
global temperature of about 0.014C per year. Therefore, global warming is reality
A trend line for the years 2001-201 1 (the dashed line in the plot) shows a mean
decrease of the global mean temperature of about 0.001C per year. Therefore,
global warming, if it ever happened, has stopped, and perhaps the planet is now
getting cooler.
A trend line for the years 1990-2000 (the dotted line in the plot) shows a mean
increase of the global temperature of about o.02s0c per year. Together with the
cooling of the following decade (dashed line), this shows that global warming did
happen, but it has now come to a halt. Since human activity has not changed during
this time, the observed temperature variations cannot be anthropogenic.
Of the 10 warmest years since 1962 (plotted with circles), nine occurred since 2001.
This cannot be due to chance, and therefore global warming is a reality.
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is a broadly inclusive term that refers to a long-term (decades to centuries)
change in any of a number of environmental conditions for a given place and time such as
temperature, rainfall, humidity, cloudiness, wind and air circulation patterns, etc.

Climate Variability refers to short-term (weeks to decades) changes in some of these same
environmental conditions for a given place and time. Climate variability is often the result of
natural oscillation in Earths climate system such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), etc. these oscillation and other similar phenomena can
influence weather and climate patterns around the globe.
1.5 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
2.1 SOLAR RADIATION
The sun puts out radiant energy carried by electromagnetic radiation (light).
The radiation emitted by the Sun travels outward in ever expanding
spheres. Some of that radiation reaches the Earth / atmosphere system and is
absorbed by it, which provides energy to keep the atmosphere, oceans, and
continents warm, and to make wind and storms.
We need a measure how much power of solar power the Earth intercepts. It
will be convenient to measure the power per unit area, Flux.
Imagine a large transparent spherea soap bubblecentered at the Sun, which just
touches the top of the Earths atmosphere.

The flux of electromagnetic radiation crossing the bubble (i.e., the amount of energy
passing through the bubble per second per unit surface area of the bubble) is called
Solar Constant . Its measured value is 1,368 W/m. It is not really constant; it varies
about 0.1% with the sunspot cycle and has changed more over the life time of the
sun.
 Insolation (Incident Solar Radiation) refers to the eactual energy per unit area that
reaches a specific location, usually on the Earths surface, in a given situation. It is
constant for all practical purposes and varies substantially with latitude, time of day,
season, cloud cover, and goes to zero at night.
 2.2 ENERGY BALANCE MODEL
Climate Model - Cycle 1

We consider the Earth with its atmosphere and all components of climate system as
homogenous solid sphere, ignoring differences in the atmosphere's composition
(clouds), differences among land and oceans, differences in topography (altitude),
and many other things.
OBSERVATION
The climate system is powered by the Sun, which emits radiation in the ultraviolet (UV)
regime (wavelength less than 0.4 m). This energy reaches the Earth's surface, where
it is converted by physical, chemical, and biological processes to radiation in the
infrared (IR) regime (wavelength greater than 5 m). This IR radiation is then
reemitted into space. If the Earth's climate is in equilibrium (steady state), the
average temperature of the Earth's surface does not change, so the amount of
energy received must equal the amount of energy re-emitted.
MODELING
Units.
Length, meter (m)
Energy, watt (W); 1 watt = 1 joule per second.
Temperature, kelvin (K). Water freezes at 273.15K and boils at 373.15 K.
Variables.
T, the temperature of the Earth's surface averaged over the entire globe.
 Physical parameters.

- R, the radius of the Earth.

- S, the energy flux density (also referred to as the energy flux) the amount of
energy (W) flowing through a flat surface of area 1m2 . From satellite observations
we know that the energy flux from the Sun is S = 1367.6Wm-2.

- : Stefan Boltzmann constant; its value is = 5.67 x 10-8 Wm-2K-4

Figure of Simplest Climate Model
BUILDING THE MODEL
Viewed from the Sun, the Earth is a disk.

The area of the disk as seen by the Sun is R2.

The energy flux density is S.

The amount of energy flowing through the disk (i.e., reaching the Earth) is

Incoming energy (W): Ein = R2S

 All bodies radiated energy in the form of electromagnetic radiation

The amount of energy radiated out depends on the temperature of the body.

In physics, it is shown that for black-body radiation" the temperature dependence is

given by the Stefan-Boltzmann law (in units of Wm2), FSB (T) = 4

The area of the Earth's surface is 4R2.

The amount of energy radiated out by the Earth is

Outgoing energy (W): Eout = 4R2T4

ANALYSIS
If the incoming energy is greater than the outgoing energy, the Earth's temperature

increases. If the incoming energy is lower than the outgoing energy, the Earth's

temperature decreases. If the incoming energy balances the outgoing energy, the

Earth's temperature remains constant; the planet is said to be in thermal equilibrium.

At thermal equilibrium, the temperature T must be such that Ein = Eout.

Our mathematical model gives the equation

1
R2S = 4R2T4 or = 4
4
 Climate Model Cycle 2

The value of = 5.5 is not in agreement with the known average temperature of
the Earth is about 16. So, we need a better model.

Observation

Model 1 omitted a number of important factors. The first factor we want to add

involves reflection some of the incoming energy from the Sun is reflected back out

into space. Snow, ice, and clouds, for example, reflect a great deal of the incoming

light from the Sun. We use the term albedo to measure the Earth's reflectivity.
MODELING
Additional physical constants.
, albedo. The Earth's average albedo is about 0.3, which means that roughly
70% of the incoming energy is absorbed by the Earth's surface.
Building The Model
The amount of energy reaching the Earth is
Incoming energy (W): = 2 1