DEMOGRAPHIC

MODEL UNTUK
MERANCANG
SISTEM
TRANSPORTASI

TATAP MUKA - 8
Kamis, 7 April 2015

PROGRAM MAGISTER TEKNIK SIPIL

PROGRAM PASCASARJANA - UNIVERSIRAS
DIPONEGORO - S E M A R A N G
2015
 PERTUMBUHAN BIRTH RATE
ALAMI
MODEL DEATH RATE
DEMOGRAFI

MIGRASI TARIKAN
MIGRASI KEGIATAN
OUT EKONOMI
MIGRASI
IN

MODEL ANALISIS
4 KOTA/
KEGIATAN
MODEL EKONOMI
WILAYAH

THE EMPLOYMENT &

ECONOMIC INPUT-OUTPUT SHIFT SHARE
POP. MULTIPLIER
BASE MODEL MODEL MODEL MODEL

TOOLS OF URBAN AND REGIONAL TRANSPORT ANALYSIS

THERE ARE 6 MODELS FOR AGGREGATE
POPULATION FORCASTING :

THE LINIER GROWTH MODEL

THE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL

DEMOGRAPHIC THE MODIFIED EXPONENTIAL

FORCASTING GROWTH MODEL
MODELS
THE DOUBLE EXPONENTAL
AND LOGISTIC MODEL

THE COMPARATIVE METHODS

COHORT SURVIVAL MODEL

Model demographic mana yang dipakai, tergantung pada :
KETERSEDIAAN DATA.
DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOUR SELAMA TIME SERIES TERTENTU

6 MODEL
DATA KEPENDUDUKAN MASA LALU
MODELS TERPILIH

n-6 n-5 n-4 n-3 n-2 n-1 n

DATA TIME SERIES

TO BE USED, WHEN :
A pattern of population growth will continue to
change at its present rate.
The aggregate population level will increase/de-
crease proportional with time.
The population grows or decreases by an equal
ammount every year.

P1 = Po + a
P2 = P1 + a = (P0 + a) + a = P0 + 2a
P3 = P2 + a = (P0 + 2a) + a = P0 + 3a
Pn = Pn-1 + a = P0+(n-1)a + a = P0 +na
THE POPULATION LEVEL AT TIME n :

Pn = Po + na
di mana : Pn = Population level at the n time period.
Po = The base population level.
a = Growth per unit time.
n = Time period (mounth, semester, years, etc).

Pn

a
a

Po

n time
0 n-1 n n+1
Example :
Assume that the population level in a given area has been
growing by 20,000 every year over the last 20 years.
The pupolation level to day is 250,000.
What wiil the population levels be 5 and 10 years from now?

Pn = Po + na
Pn = Po + 20,000 n
Thus, in 5 years it will be P5 = 250,000 + 20,000 (5)
= 250,000 + 100.000
= 350,000.

and in 10 years it will be P10 = 250.000 + 20,000 (10)

= 250,000 + 200,000
= 450,000.
TO BE USED THE MODEL, WHEN :
The population rate of growth is not constant, but itself
various with time.
The population change is not proportional to the existing level
of population.

Pn+1 Pn = rPn

Where : (Pn+1 Pn) = The increment in population from unit time n to unit time
n + 1, and r is the proportional factor.

Pn+1 - Pn
r = -------
Pn

r = rate of change.
P 1 P0 = r P 0 or P1 = (1+r) P0

P 2 P1 = r P 1 or P2 = (1+r) P1 = (1+r)(1+r) P0 = (1+r)2 P0

P 3 P2 = r P 2 or P3 = (1+r) P2 = (1+r)(1+r)2 P0 = (1+r)3 P0

Pn Pn-1 = r Pn-1 or Pn = (1+r) Pn-1 = (1+r)(1+r)n-1 P0

Pn = (1+r)nP0
Pn Pn

>a

>a
a

<a a

0 n 0 n
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL EXPONENTIAL DECREASE MODEL

The equivalent of formula

Exponential Growth/Decrease model

For Growth : Pn = Po (1+r)n

For Decrease : Pn = Po (1-r)n

Example :

The population level to day is 125,000. Rate of growth is 5.00% per years.
What will the populatation level be in 10 years.

Solution :

Pn = (1+r)n Po = (1 + 0.005)n Po

= (1.05)10 (125,000)

= 1.63 (125,000) = 203,612

used the logarithm facilitate :

log (1.05)10 = 10 log (1.05) = 10 (0.02118) = 0.2118

log 125,000 = log 125 . 103 = 3 + log 125 = 5.0969

log P10 = log 1.0510 + log 125,000

= 0.2118 + 5.0969 = 5.3087

Anti log 5.3087 = 203,564

The result defferent because Rounding of the logarithms.

 TO BE USED THIS MODEL, WHEN :
The population level will continue to grow/decrease
identifinitely.
The population will eventually become infinite.

Pn
P~ - Pn Di mana :
------------ = V P~ : The ultimate population level
P~ - Pn-1 v : Constant < 1

P~

P~ - Pn+1
P~ - Po
P~ - Pn

Po
P~ - Pn -1

0 time
n-1 n n+1
CASCADE PROCEDURE :

P~ - P1 = v(P~ - P0)
P~ - P2 = v(P~ - P1) = v.v(P~ - P0) = v2(P~ - P0)
P~ - P3 = v(P~ - P2) = v.v2(P~ - P0) = v3(P~ - P0)
----------------------------------------
P~ - Pn = v(P~ - Pn-1) = v.vn-1(P~ - P0) = vn(P~ -P0)

Pn = P~ - vn(P~ - Po)

Example :

The enrollment at a university is projected to be stabilized at 30,000, and that it

is currently 10,000. The policy of the administration of the university is to have
decreasing yearly enrollment in such a fashion that each decade only a third of the
previous decades growth would be allowed.
For such a policy, how many years will it take to reach a level of enrollment of 15,000.?
Pn = P~ - vn (P~ - P0)

P~ = 30,000
P0 = 10,000
V = 1/3 Pn = 30,000 (1/3)n (20,000)

Pn = 15,000 15,000 = 30,000 (1/3)n (20,000)

30,000 15,000
(1/3)n = --------------- = 0.75
20,000
n Log 1/3 = log 0.75
log 0.75 -0.125
n = ------- = ------- = 0.261
log 0.33 -0.478

15,000 will be reached on 0.261 decade = 2.61 years

IT MIGHT BE OBSERVED THAT HISTORICALLY A CERTAIN
COUNTY IN A GIVEN STATE HAS BEEN GROWING PROPORTINALLY
TO THE TOTAL POPULATION OF THE STATE.
IF THE POPULATION FOR THE STATE
Pts PROJECTION FOR THE COUNTY.
Ptc CAN EASILY BE DERIVED :

Pt c = k P ts
Note : Ptc = Population projection at county on t time.
P ts = Population projection at state on t time.
k = The propoortionality factor

Ilustrasi : Historis menunjukkan bahwa penduduk metropolitan area (city)

selalu 20,00% dari total penduduk state. Diasumsikan bahwa pendu-
duk state diproyeksikan tumbuh mengikuti model linier sbb :
Pts = 2 + 0,1 t.
Pertanyaan : Dalam waktu berapa tahun penduduk city menjadi 2 kali lipat ?
 Ptc = 0,2 Pts

Ptc = 0,2 (2+0,1t)

Pts = 2 + 0,1t

Poc = 0,2 (2 + 0,1.0) = 0,4 JUTA

SUPAYA MENJADI 2 KALI LIPAT
Ptc = 0,8 = 0,2 (2 + 0,1t)
Poc = 2 x 0,4 = 0,8 JUTA
0,8
= 2 + 0,1t = ---- = 4
0,2

0,1t = 4 - 2

t = 20

Jadi penduduk metropolitan are (city) akan berlipat

menjadi 2 kali lipat setelah jangka waktu 20 tahun.
ASSUMPTION :
A finite ultimate level of population Pt = P~
abt

Pt = P~ abt Log Log P~/P t

Log Pt = Log P~ + bt Log a

P~
Log (---) = -bt Log a Slope : Log b

Pt = bt Log 1/a
Log Log 1/a
P~
Log Log (---) = Log Log (1/a) + t Log b.
Pt PLOT OF THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL
MODEL USING DOUBLE LOGARITHMS
AT TIME t = 0

p~ P~
We have : Log Log (---) = Log Log (1/a) or --- = 1/a
P0 P0
P0
or finally : a = ---
P~

Pt

P~

P0

t
An Illustration :

Let us assume that we would like to fit a double exponential model to

the evolution of a population. Level starting from a base of 80,000 and stabilizing eventually at a level of
200,000.
Suppose that we also know that the level is expected to be
150,000 after 10 years.

P0 80,000
a = --- = ------- = 0.4
P~ 200,000

P~
Log Log ( --) = Log Log (1/a) + t Log b
Pt

200,000 1
Log Log ( --------) = Log Log ( ----) + 10 Log b
150,000 0.4

- 0.90 = - 0.40 + 10 Log b

-0.90 + 0.40
Log b = ------------ = -0.05
10
b = 0.89

Pt = (200,000) 0.4 (0,89)t

 3 COMPONENTS OF THE THE ORIGIN
POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION IN
TERMS
OF AGE GROUPS

P10
P20
P30
BIRTH
P0 =
MORTA MIGRA
LITY TION

P i0
a. Birth Rate

The fertility rate of the various age group corresponding to child

bearing ages for females will be :
bk, bk+1, bk+2, bi, bq
These rates are for a time period of t years equal to the span of the
age group

Thus, bk will be defined as the ratio of the number babies (boys or

girls) born from females in the kth group in the time period of length t
over the total size (male or female) of that group.

Number of birth from group k

Bk = ------------------------
P0k
Number of birth
form group k = ( bk )( P0k )
The total number of babies born in a time period of t years will therefore be :

bk pok + bk+1 pok+1 + + bq poq

p1 = bk pok + bk+1 pok+1 + bq poq

p1 0 0 - - bk bk+1 - bq 0 p 10
p2 0 0 - - - - 0 - - 0 p 20
- - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - -
pi = 0 0 - - - - 0 - - 0 -
- - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - -
- 0 0 - - - - 0 - - 0 -
pu 0 0 - - - - - - - 0 p uo

P = B P0
The total number of babies born in a time period of t years will therefore be :

bk pok + bk+1 pok+1 + + bq poq

p1 = bk pok + bk+1 pok+1 + bq poq

p1 0 0 - - bk bk+1 - bq 0 p 10
p2 0 0 - - - - 0 - - 0 p 20
- - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - -
pi = 0 0 - - - - 0 - - 0 -
- - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - -
- 0 0 - - - - 0 - - 0 -
pu 0 0 - - - - - - - 0 p uo

P = B P0