Bahirdar University

School Of Electrical And Computer Engineering

Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian
Hydropower plant
(case study Beles Hydro Power Stations)
By
Woldemariam Worku
Advisor Dr. Tasew T.
Thesis proposal for Partial Fulfillment of Requirement for the Degree of Master of
Science in Power System Engineering
December, 2017
Bahirdar, Ethiopia
 Presentation topics
Introduction
Problem statement
Literature review
Objectives
 General objective
 Specific objective
Significance of the study
Scope of the study
Reference
 Introduction
 Hydropower is the leading source of renewable energy
 It provides more than 86% of all electricity generated by
renewable sources worldwide.
 Other sources, including solar, geothermal, wind and
biomass, account for less than 14% of renewable
electricity production
 Hydroelectric power captures the energy released from
falling water.
 Hydroelectric power plants are categorized according to
size
 Micro, Mini, Small, and Large.
 Cont.…
 A Micro sized plant is one that generates less than 100
kW of electricity
 A Mini facility can serve an isolated community or a
small factory by generating 100kW-1MW of electricity.
 A Small plant generates 1MW-30MW and can serve an
area while supplying electricity to the regional grid.
 Lastly, a large facility generates more than 30MW of
power
 There have two major types of hydroelectric
• impounded type and
• diversion type.
 Cont.…
 It is the cheapest source of power
 Ethiopia has Africa’s greatest hydropower potential,
second only to Democratic Republic of the Congo
 Ethiopia has plenty of favorable sites where hydroelectric
power can be economically generated
 Ethiopia has more than 45Gw hydropower potentials
 Currently we are using 3816MW
 The rest are from diesel generator98.8Mw,
geothermal7.3MW wind power stations 324.18MW
 Statement of problem
 Interruption of power is common in Ethiopia
everywhere, even though the degree varies.
 The problems of power interruption arise at
• the Generation power plant,
• transmission power system and
• distribution power system at large.
 In order to satisfy customers’ demand these power
systems must be reliable and efficient.
 Cont.…
 Failure of some pieces of equipment particularly the
auxiliaries might cause little or no damage in the
operation of a generating unit.
 Still, some might cause immediate or total shutdown
of the unit if they fail.
 The failure rates of all the various components of a
generating unit contribute to the overall unavailability of
the unit.
 The unavailability of a generating unit due to component
failure is known as its ‘forced outage rate’. Forced
outages are not planned or maintenance outages.
 Review of Literature
 Reliability can be expressed in different ways and in
power system,
 it is mainly defined as the ability of the components in
generation, transmission and distribution systems to
perform a required function, under given environmental
and operational conditions and for a stated period of
time.
 Several techniques have been used in the reliability
evaluation of power generation, transmission and
distribution systems, which considers different
approaches different plants and using different models
 Cont.…
 Gupta et al. [1] stated that it is necessary to maintain the
thermal power plant to provide reliable and uninterrupted
electrical supply for a long time
 Buzacott et.al.,[2] explained that reliability block
diagrams of a system of independent units could be
reduced to find the reliability of a non -maintained system,
reduced to find the availability of the repairable system
 John et.al., [3] found the usage of the Markov approach for
calculating the failure time measures such as availability, mean
cycle time, and mean time to first failure to analyze repairable
and also discussed various special techniques
 Cont.…

 Papazoglou et.al., [4] used a Markov-chain model and the

numerical difficulties associated with large transition-
probability matrices were reduced by a systematic ordering
of the system states and also described a technique for the
systematic merging of processes corresponding to systems
exhibiting symmetries
 Papadopoulos et.al. [5] Described the concept of frequency of
failures during the useful life period was programmed by
mathematical reliability model
 Cont.…
 Allan et.al., [6] presented an approach for determining
the effect of terminal station failures on station-
originated outages and the results used to assess the
reliability of the terminal stations themselves and as
input data to a composite system reliability
evaluation technique
 Soeth et.al., [7] discussed about Reliability of
generator system by using Markov models. Variations
outage post probability distributions and their impact
on unit indices were also investigated. Majeedet.al
 Main Objectives

 The main objective of this research is to evaluate the

MTTR, MTTF, failure rate, repair rate and the
probabilities of the various defined failure stats of Hydro
power plant ( Beles hydropower plant) using two states
of Markov model, there by reliability and availability
of the individual units over a period of six years
 Specific objective
 To study the Frequency of Scheduled maintenance of
each individual generating unit of the station.
 To Evaluate MTTR, MTBF, MTTF, rate, repair rate,
probability of occurrence of failure for the
components/ subsystems of individual generating unit
 To carry out Markov model and State space diagram of
hydro power station.
 To apply the common concepts of probability to find the
overall reliability of Hydro power station
 To maximize plant reliability and availability
performance
Significance of the study
 This study is presents a theoretical and practical
implication for electric power reliability and availability.
 Second, this study will show the causes and impacts
of electric power interruptions and importance of
managing power interruptions and lose and its urgency.
 The finding identifies the focal problem and priority
areas for decision makers.
 Additionally, it will also provide a reliable data in
relation to the cause of power interruption and lose
for researchers, academics and students.
Scope of the study
 The study is limited to Beles hydropower plant, but data
gathering covers parts of the country power plant .
 Data are collected from generation, transmission and
distribution systems.
 Externally, industrial customers based on oral questions and
interviews.
 In regarding to power infrastructure observation is
applied. The study uses the recent six years outage report
data of beles power plant.
 Reference
[1] Ethiopian Electric utility strategic plan, July 2014
[2]Skof, L. V., Ontario Hydro Surveys on Power System
Reliability Summary of Customer Viewpoints, Ontario
[3]Hydro Rep. R&MR 80-12, EPRI Seminar, 1983.
[4]Billinton, R., 'Evaluation of reliability worth in an
electric power system', Reliability Engineering and System
Safety, 46 (1994), pp. 15-23
[5]Adamu M., Adegboye B., et al, Reliability Evaluation of
Kainji Hydro-Electric Power Station in Nigeria, Journal of
Energy Technologies and Policy, vol 2(2), 2012
Thank you for your attention