RISK BASED INSPECTION

By
PRAKASH JOSHI. INTEGRATED TRAINING

22-26 July 2006, Cairo. Egypt.

 WHAT IS RBI ?
• Traditional inspection methods :
- Generally time based
- Often unfocussed and indiscriminate,
- With little relevance to the actual risk of equipment.

• RBI is based on :
- Assessment of RISK levels,
- Prioritizing the equipments based on risk levels
- Focusing inspection program based on risk levels.
 WHY ADOPT RBI ?

1. RBI is based on RISK.

2. A relatively large percentage of the risk is associated

with a small percentage of the equipments,

3. RBI permits the shift of inspection and maintenance

resources to a higher level on the few high-risk items
and to an appropriate level on several low risk items
Thus,establish economic optimum levels of inspection .
 WHAT IS “RISK” ?

• Risk is the net result of: The Likelihood of Failure

(LOF) and the Consequence of Failure (COF).
Risk = Likelihood of failure x Its consequence
Risk = LOF X COF

• RBI is likely to reduce risk by :

1. Reducing LOF by Suitable inspection and,
2. Reducing COF by risk mitigation methods..
GRAPICHL DISPLAY OF RISK
GRAPHICAL DISPLAY OF RISK LEVELS

5 Highest Risk
High Risk

4 high Risk
LIKELIHOOD
CATEGORY

2 Medium risk

1 Low Risk

1 2 3 4 5
CONSEQUENCE CATEGORY
 RISK ASSESSMENT

• Risk assessments can be qualitative or quantitative.

• Assessments combining features of both (i.e accuracy of

quantitative and simplicity of qualitative are denoted as
semi-quantitative.

• Qualitative answers are often sufficient to make major

decisions

• Qualitative methods are cumbersome, time consuming.

Semi-quantitative results in reasonably accepted results
with lesser efforts.
EQUAL RISK LINES
 RISK ANALYSIS
1) Hazard Identification – Study of Process, environment,
damage mechanism of each item
2) Likelihood Assessment – Inspection method, NDT
Inspection Frequency
3) Consequence Assessment – Type of product-flammable
or toxic, area affected etc.
4) Risk Evaluation and Reporting - Combing LOF & COF
5) Mitigation and improvement – Appropriate & adequate
Inspection,Design improvement
 BENEFITS OF RBI

1 - Optimize inspection / maintenance resources

2 - Increase availability time of certain
processes facilities
3 - Longer operation of certain equipments and,
4 - Maintaining the same level of risk for the
whole plant
THE RBI ASSESSMENT (API 580)

API RP 580 is intended to provide:

• Guidance on developing a Risk Based

inspection (RBI) program in Hydrocarbon
and Chemical process industries.

• It details out:
a. What is RBI
b. What are the key elements of RBI
c. How to implement a RBI program
THE RBI ASSESSMENT (API 580)…Contd.

RP 580 is intended to supplement:

API 510: Pressure Vessel Inspection code,

API 570: Piping Inspection Code and

API 653: Tank Inspection code .

THE RBI ASSESSMENT (API 580)…Contd.

The RBI assessment must systematically evaluate:

• The probability of failure and

• The associated consequence of failure.

The probability of failure assessment must be based

on all forms of deterioration that could be expected to
affect the piece of equipment.
THE RBI ASSESSMENT (API 580)…Contd.

The consequence of failure assessment must

address safety/health/environment aspects
and/or Economic standpoint
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF API 580

A successfully implemented RBI will throw up

suggestions for:
• Developing the appropriate inspection strategy
commensurate with risk. and/or,

• Risk mitigation and Risk-management

PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF API 580…Contd.
By providing information on following:

a. Ranking by risk of all the equipments

b. An inspection plan to be employed, e.g:

• Inspection methods

• Extent of inspection

• Timing of inspection (insp.interval)

c. Suggestions of risk mitigation

d. Expected levels of residual risk

 RBI BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS

1. Benefits:

a. Overall reduction of risk of the plant and equipment

b. Understanding / Acceptance of current risk

c. RBI helps to identify equipments that may not require

inspection or mitigation because of acceptable level of
risk

d. The inspection and maintenance activities can be more

focused (towards risk) and also more cost effective.
RBI BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS…Contd.
2. Limitations:

RBI does not compensate for:

a. Inaccurate/ missing information

b. Inadequate design or faulty installation

c. Operations outside design limits

d. Lack of the qualified persons or sound

engineering judgments.
RBI BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS…Contd.
3. RBI as continuous improvement tool:
• As new data (inspection results) becomes available,
reassessment of RBI program can be made with a
refreshed view of risks.
• It may identify shortcomings in effectiveness of
presently available inspection methods.
• RBI is expected to promote faster development of
more appropriate inspection technologies.
• Review of present but underutilized technologies,
which may be more effective in risk assessment.
RBI BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS…Contd.

4. RBI as integrated Management tool:

RBI is a risk assessment and risk-management tool.

It produces inspection and maint. plans to achieve:

• Reliable and safe operation,

• Cost effective inspection and

• Longer process runs for uninterrupted productivity.

 Scope of API 580

• RP 580 is specially targeted at the application of

RBI in hydrocarbon and chemical process
industry.

• API 580 is focused on mechanical integrity of

pressure equipments and minimizing the risk of
loss of containment due to deterioration.
 Scope of API 580…Contd.
• RBI complements (not replace):

 Process Hazard Analysis (PHA)

 Hazardous operation (HAZOP)

 Reliability centered Management (RCM)

Which focus on Design, Operation and

Maintenance practices respectively.

 Why was RBI developed?
• All pressure equipment contain flaws
Most flaws are innocuous - Don’t
cause problems
• Few flaws cause catastrophic failure
Must find (inspect) those critical
flaws in high risk service – Cost
effectively
• Typically 80% of the risk is associated with
< 20% of the pressure equipment
 Types of RBI Analysis

• Level I - Qualitative risk analysis, simple , brief

prioritization of equipment.

• Level II - Semi-quantitative risk analysis,

more detailed prioritization and planning.

• Level III - Quantitative risk analysis, in depth

analysis
 Types of RBI Analysis…Contd.
Perform minimum level of analysis necessary to
provide information adequate for decision
making.

• Detailed analysis, when not necessary, does

not benefit the decision maker, but also

inappropriately use resources .

Risk Assessments: API 580 and 581

• API 580 : Recommended Practice that

describes all vital issues to be considered when

implementing a RBI program .

Used as the Standard guideline document for

methods and requirements for RBI.
Risk Assessments: API 580 and 581…Contd.

• API 581: Base Resource Document that

describes specific step-by step RBI methodology
for oil and gas plants.

Used as working document. Contains detailed

work-sheets, graphs, tables, and other data…all
to be used by RBI task force for actual carrying
out specific RBI implementations.
QUALITATIVE APPOACH to RBI

It can be performed at following levels.

• An entire operating unit.

• Major area or section of an operating unit.
• A system or major equipment.

First determine LOF within the Unit / Section /

Equipment then the associated COF, both of which
are then combined to produce risk rating.
 QUALITATIVE APPOACH – COF
Six factors considered to assess Likelihood Category.
• Equipment Factor (EF) – 15 Points

• Damage Factor (DF) – 20 Points

• Inspection Factor (IF) – 15 Points

• Condition Factor (CCF) – 15 Points

• Process Factor (PF) – 15 Points

• Mech. Design Factor (MDF) – 15 Points

Sum of above six factors establishes overall Likelihood

factor (Part A).
 QUALITATIVE APPOACH – COF

Major hazards or the consequences in Refinery &

Petrochemical plants are:
• Fire and Explosion (Part B)

• Toxic Risk (Part C)

Out of the above, (Part B & Part C), higher Level of

consequence is taken as “Overall Consequence
Category”.
 Quantitative Approach

Likelihood & consequence analysis gives the risk in

quantified absolute figures i.e.

• In US per year or

• Area affected (Risk Area) in square feet.

The results are used to Develop Inspection programs

to reduce Risk.
 Quantitative Approach - contd.

Likelihood Analysis works out failure frequency

considering :
• Generic Failure Frequency (Global)

• Equipment Modification factor (Equipment)

• Management system evaluation factor (Plant)

Quantitative Approach - contd.

Consequence Analysis considers :

• Flammable consequences

• Toxic consequences

• Environmental consequences

• Business interruption consequences

 QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS
Adjusted Failure frequency (AFF) is calculated by:

AFF = GFF * FE * FM

Where,

GFF = The generic failure frequency.

FE = Equipment modification factor specific to the

mechanical integrity of the equipment

FM = Management factor, specific to the plant.

 Likelihood Analysis
1. Determine Generic Failure Freq. (Database)

2. Equipment Modification factor consists of :

• Technical Module sub-factor

• Universal sub-factor

• Mechanical sub-factor

• Process sub-factor

3. Management Evaluation factor is determined from a

score out of 1000 points
 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
Likelihood analysis is carried out to obtain Failure
Frequency of equipment considering:
• Generic Failure Frequency
• Technical module based on
• Damage rate
• Inspection effectiveness
• Universal - Factors applicable to whole plant
• Mechanical – Factors applicable to equipment
• Process – Process stability & safety
• Management systems factor
QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS…Contd.
Equipment modification factors, (FE) considers:

• Type and rate of damage expected (e.g.

corrosion, cracking, property degradation)

• Quality and scope of inspection program (e.g.

frequency, methods, tools)

• Maintenance and repair quality control program

(e.g. control of workmanship)
QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS…Contd.

• Design and construction standards utilized (e.g.

active code, API codes)

• Equipment and process histories (e.g. quality of

inspection records)

• Preventive maintenance programs (e.g. PSV

servicing, insulation maintenance)
QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS…Contd.

Equipment factor (FE) mainly depends on assessment of :

1). Potential damage mechanisms (e.g. localized corrosion

or wet H2S cracking, SCC etc.) and Damage rates (e.g.
corrosion rates or cracking rates).

2). The effectiveness of the current inspection program in

finding and monitoring the identified damage
mechanisms.
 Inspection effectiveness is rated as:

• Highly Effective: finds the damage nearly always.

• Usually Effective: finds the damage most of the time

• Fairly Effective: finds damage about half of the time.

• Poorly Effective – usually does not find the damage.

• Ineffective – does not find the damage.

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS…Contd.

Management factor (FM) considers management issues

affecting the plant integrity like:

• Maintenance procedures and training

• Process safety information
• Management of change procedures and practices
• Operating procedures
• Process hazards analysis
 Consequence Overview
1. Estimate Release rates

2. Determine type of release

• Instantaneous

• Continuous

3. Determine type of dispersion / damage.

4. Estimate impact of mitigation systems

5. Estimate consequences
 CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT

1) Severity and extent of potential damage

depends on the size of the leak or rupture and
the likelihood of a release being instantaneous
or continuous for a period of time

2) For flammable events, four events are

calculated for hole sizes: ¼", 1”, 4” and full
rupture.
CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT…Contd.
3) Calculations are made to determine if the
release is likely to result in

• vapor cloud explosion,

• a flash fire,

• a jet fire,

• a liquid pool fire,

• or safe dispersion (no ignition).

 Consequence Analysis
1. Determine Representative fluid

2. Select set of hole sizes (simulation of leak)

3. Fluid available for release

4. Release rates

5. Type of release

6. Final phase of fluid

7. Post leak response

8. Consequences of Release
 RISK ANALYSIS
RISKS = Cs X Fs

Where,

s= Failure Scenario Anticipated (Hole Size)

CS = Consequence for Each Failure Scenario

FS = Frequency Anticipated for Each Scenario

The frequency for each scenario (FS) is calculated

using the Adjusted Failure Frequency (AFF).
 RISK ANALYSIS…Contd.
Then the risk for each piece of equipment is the summation
of all the risk calculations

for each of four hole sizes:

RISKEQUIP = Σs RISKs

Where,

RISKs = Risk for Each Scenario (1/4", 1", 4", and rupture

cases)

RISKEQUIP = Total Risk for Each scenario of Equipment

 RISK ANALYSIS…Contd.
The units of risk are expressed in terms of:

• Potential damaged area /year for flammable and toxic

events, or

• Potential dollars lost/year for business interruption or

• Major environmental damage.

This would also need consideration of the local statutory

laws and resulting liability the owner has to incur towards

the compensation /penalty.

 SEMI-QUANTITATIVE RBI
• This shortened process (Level II) is an 80/20
version of Level III analysis. and is expected to
produce 80% of the results with 20% of the effort.

• It retains all of the vital aspects of risk analysis

utilized in Level III analysis, but makes numerous
simplifications significantly reducing the time and
effort to collect data and to conduct an RBI .
 Semi-quantitative Approach

• It is scaled down approach from Quantitative approach.

It considers the effect of the vital factors ignoring the
trivial ones.

• It thus results in most of the benefits of Quantitative but

does not require much input.

• The results is plotted on 5 X 5 risk matrix as in qualitative

approach.
 SEMI-QUANTITATIVE RBI…Contd.

• Likelihood of failure is based solely upon the

assessment of potential damage mechanisms
and the effectiveness of the inspection program
All other aspects of process safety management
and mechanical integrity programs included in
Level III analysis are deleted for the simplified
Level II analysis.
 Likelihood Analysis

• It only considers Technical Module sub factor to

determine likelihood category
• TMSF (around 1000) usually for outweighs all other
factors (usually less than 10)
• Other factors tend to be similar across the plant and do
not provide discriminations between equipments
• Likelihood category ( 1 to 5 ) is therefore decided based
on TMSF only.
 Consequence Analysis

It consists of :
• Simplified approach for estimating inventory
amounts
• Consequence area is calculated for each hole size
• Likelihood weighted average area is worked out to
determine consequence category (A-E)
• Risk matrix ( 5 X 5 ) is then constructed for
analysis and assessment purpose.
 RBI BASED INSPECTION PROGRAM
• RBI gives, the prioritized risk ranking (combined
likelihood and consequence of failure),

• It also contains a prioritized list of equipment by

likelihood of failure only and consequence of
failure only.

• This allows the user to focus on the specific

issues that drive up total risk,
RBI BASED INSPECTION PROGRAM …Contd.

• It helps to understand whether the total risk is

driven primarily by likelihood of failure or
primarily by consequence of failure.

• It therefore clearly shows up the such aspects

which needs to be addressed ( dealt with) for
reducing the risk.
 RBI Based Inspection Program

It addresses two issues :

• Develop inspection program and appropriate
technique relevant to type of damage
• Optimize inspection program commensurate
with risk, i.e. decrease in inspection activity if
no gain in risk reduction results in high level
of inspection
 RISK REDUCTION THROUGH INSPECTION

• Having calculated a total risk for each piece of

equipment, the next step is to decide what to do
with the risk-prioritized list of equipment.
• One of important potential risk reduction efforts is
inspection and testing (I&T) program. Once we
know what our highest priority pressure
equipment, we will be able to determine very
specifically where I&T efforts should be focused
to reduce total risk.
RISK REDUCTION THROUGH INSPECTION –
contd.
Inspection influences risk by reducing probability
of failure considering 4 factors :
• Damage mechanism active in the system and type
of damage it can cause

• Rate of damage progression

• Selecting appropriate technique to detect damage

(Inspection Effectiveness)

• Tolerance of equipment to type of damage

RISK REDUCTION THROUGH INSPECTION –
contd.
Inspection strategy should be developed
considering :
• What damage to look for (Service condition)

• Where to look for it (Location of inspection)

• How to look for damage ( Type of NDT)

• When to look (Frequency)

INSPECTION STRATEGY BASED ON RBI
• First, of all, the frequency of inspection can be
adjusted.
• The methods and tools for I&T can be changed.
• The scope, quality, and extent of the inspection
and data taking can be adjusted.
• More global I&T techniques (like AE and
thermography) can be applied, when
appropriate.
 INSPECTION STRATEGY BASED ON
RBI…Contd.
• More on-stream inspections can be utilized to
assess damage occurring while in-service.

• Inspections can be more focused at areas of

expected damage.

• Where appropriate, more sophisticated tools and

techniques can be used to find and characterize
localized damage and cracking.
 INSPECTION STRATEGY BASED ON
RBI…Contd.
• The proposed changes in inspection activity are
then planned into upcoming scheduled
inspection, (turnaround planning,)

• Once the inspections are conducted, results

analyzed, higher risk equipment on the list might
have dropped in risk ranking appreciably, as a
result of having received more inspection and
maintenance attention during turnaround.
 INSPECTION STRATEGY BASED ON
RBI…Contd.
• This may require another reprioritizing of
equipments (though at reduced risk levels) thus
continuing the cycle of Continuous improvement

• Overall, one can reduce not only the potential for

injury, capital asset loss, and production losses,
but you may be able to accomplish that with
fewer inspection resources.
RISK REDUCTION THROUGH INSPECTION

In short, The RBI throws-up:

A prioritization ranking of each piece of equipment for
deciding three different levels of

inspection activity:

1. A reduced but adequate inspection plan

2. Continuation of current actual level of inspection, and

3. Increased but optimized level of inspection

 INSPECTION PROGRAM OPTIMIZATION

• RBI analysis could be an effort to optimize the inspection

program, by obtaining the lowest risk at the lowest cost.

• Thus, a company may shift its limited inspection

resources away from low risk equipment (which may be
over-inspected) towards the higher risk equipment (that
may be under-inspected).

• The iso-risk lines help to clearly differentiate higher risk

equipment from lower risk equipment.
 INSPECTION PROGRAM
OPTIMIZATION…Contd.
• The management can focus inspection and/or mitigation
resources on equipment items that are above a
maximum acceptable risk level and bring them within
acceptable risk. Thus the total risk is minimized.

• The changes in risk can bring about changes in planned

inspection strategy eliminating redundant inspections
and inspection costs as to resources earlier costs will be
reduced. Thus total risk is decreasing and inspection
costs are also decreasing.