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Petroleum Reservoir System

&
Field Management
Flow Rates
Number of Wells
Recovery

A h φ ( 1 − S wi )
φ OOIP =
Integrated Team:
B oi
A = Geophysic P1
H,φ ,Swi, = Petrophysic + Geology P2
Gas
Boi = Res. Eng P3
Sealing
GOC
Oil
Spillpoint
WOC → Pc
Oil
FWL Water

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History of Reserves
Definitions

 1936 - 1964 : American Petroleum Institute (API)


 1939 - present : DeGolyer and MacNaughton (D&M)
 1964 - 1980 : Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
 1979 : U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC)
 1981 - present : SPE Revised Definitions
 1983 : World Petroleum Congress (WPC)
 1997, 2000 : SPE & WPC

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Reserve Definition

 Reserves Classification

* Discovered
* Recoverable
* Commercial
* Remaining

And they are estimated, not determined, because they


are always uncertain.

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Reserves and Estimated Ultimate
 Recovery
Reserves are the summation of the future production, from
a given date forward (up to the economic or contract limit)
25,000 140,000

120,000

20,000

100,000

1
5,000
80,000

TYPE OF DECLINE
:EXPONENTIAL
Di =0.00065(1
/DAY) 60,000
1
0,000 N=0.00000
qabd=5(BBL/D)
ENDTIME =8-2032
UR =1 23,597MBBL 40,000

5,000
20,000

0 0

J an-82 J un-87 Dec-92 J un-98 Nov-03 May-09 Nov-1


4 May-20 Oct-25 Apr-31 Oct-36
TIME, DAY

 Estimated Ultimate Recovery


Hydrocarbons-In-Place
x
Recovery Factor *
=
Estimated Ultimate Recovery – EUR
* RF for oil typically 10 – 40%, but can reach 70%. 4

RF for gas typically 50 – 80%


 Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE):
60.000 + professionals in 105 countries

 World Petroleum Council (WPC):


A forum for science and technology of
petroleum of 60+ countries

 American Association of Petroleum


Geologist (AAPG):
30.000 + professionals in 116 countries

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“Reserves
Definitions”

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Reserves & Resources

Resource
s

Discovere Undiscovere
d d
Commerciall Non
y
Commerciall
Recoverable y
Cummmulativ Reserves
e
Production

Proved Probable Possible

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SPE/WPC/AAGP
Resources System

Reserves are ………….

- those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated


to be commercially recoverable from known
accumulations from a given date forward

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SPE/WPC/AAPG System

Prospective resources are ………….

- those quantities of petroleum which are estimated,


on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from
undiscovered accumulations.

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SPE/WPC/AAPG Resources
Classification System

Production
DISCOVERED RESERVES
COMMERCIAL
1P 2P 3P
CONTINGENT
DISCOVERED RESOURCES
SUB- Low Best High
COMMERCIAL Uncoverable
PROSPECTIVE
RESOURCES
UNDISCOVERED
Low Best High
Uncoverable
← Range of Uncertainty →

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SPE/WPC/AAPG Resources
Classification System

Production
PROJECT STATUS
DISCOVERE
DISCOVERED
RESERVES On Lower
D
COMMERCIAL
Production
Under Development Risk
COMMERCIA 1P 2P 3P
L Planned for
CONTINGENT Develop.
DISCOVERED Develop.
RESOURCES Project
SUB- pending On
Develop.
Low Best High Maturit
COMMERCIAL Hold
Develop. Not
Uncoverable y
Viable
PROSPECTIVE Prospect
RESOURCES Higher
UNDISCOVERED Load Risk
Low Best High
Play
Uncoverable
← Range of Uncertainty → Key concepts
are
risk/maturity 11

and
Total Resources

IDENTIFIED UNDISCOVERED
DEMONSTRATED HYPOTHETICAL SPECULATIVE
IN IN
KNOWN UNDISCOVERED
MEASURED INDICATED INFERRED DISTRICTS DISTRICTS

INCREASING DEGREE OF ECONOMIC FEASABILITY


ECONOMIC

RESERVES
PARAMARGINAL

RESOURCES
SUBMARGINAL

INCREASING DEGREE OF GEOLOGIC ASSURANCE

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Commercial DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED

Field Field Field


on under under
Production Development Appraisal

Prospect Lead Play


NonCommercial

Noncommercial Field

Decreasing Risk

Modified McKelvey box showing resource status categories.


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Risk versus Uncertainty

“There is a RISK that I am going to calculate and I am


UNCERTAIN how far the OOIP is to the reality”

Risk

 Is it going to be accepted?

 Will the number of wells will be sufficient?

 Probability of success?

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Uncertainty

 Is the OOIP correct/aceepted

 Will the wells produce as the predicted rates?

 How long is the plateau?

 Low, Best Estimate, High case answer =


DETERMINISTIC MODELING
 Continuum, probability distribution answer =
PROBABILISTIC MODELING

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What are the Sources of Risk?

 Prospective resources might not be there

 Contingent resources may not be developed

 Additional information may result in a more


pessimistic view on the project
 A licence might not be extended

 Fiscal terms may be changed

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Risk Analysis: Monte Carlo

Triangle Distribution Histogram Chart


100%
650
90%
600

1- Prob. Of Success
550 80%
500
70%
450
60%
Area, Net Pay, Porosity, 400
350 50%
Sw 300
40%
250
200 30%
150
20%
100
50 10%

P90
P10 P50
P50 P90
P10

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Production Forecast
Reserve Estimation

 Probabilistric distribution for RF as input into to


reserve equation and Monte-Carlo simulation

RF
 Deterministic Reserve on the P90, P50 and P10
STOIIP cases from simulatrion and histoty
matching. For These deterministicd estimate a
PRODUCTION FORECAST is necessary.

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What are the Sources of Uncertainty?
 For Volumes:
- Seismic
- Depth conversion
- Reservoir continuity
- Reservoir quality
- Fluid properties
- Well productivity
- Recovery factor

 For Value:
- Future costs
- Future prices

For each, the uncertainty is in both possitive and negative 19


directions
Window of Uncertainity
After SPE No. 28782

Exploratio Appraisal Development/productio


+ 50 n n
High
Estimated Ultimate Recovery

Estimate

Range of Most
Uncertaint Reliable
y Estimate

Low
Estimate

- 50

Time 20
(years)
Recovery Factor

RANGE OF RECOVERY ESTIMATES


Barells

Time after J.J Arps


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Proved Definitions
SEC
Proved oil and gas reserves are the estimated quantities
of crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids which
geological and engineering data demonstrate with
reasonable certainty to be recoverable, in future years
from known reservoirs under existing economic and
operating conditions, i.e. prices and cost as of the date
the estimate is made

SPE / WPC
Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum
which, by analysis of geological and engineering data,
can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be
commercially recoverable, from a given date forward,
from known reservoirs and under current economic 22

conditions, operating methods, and government


The area of the reservoir considered as proved
includes:

1. The area delineated by drilling and defined by fluid


contacts, if any; and

2. The undrilled potions of the reservoir that can


reasonably be judged as commercially productive on
the basis of available geological and engineering
data. In the absence of data fluid contacts, the
lowest known occurance of hydrocarbons controls
the proved limit unless otherwise indicated by
definitive geological, engineering or performance
data.

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Probable – SPE Definition
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves
which analysis of geological and engineering
data suggests are more likely than not to be
recoverable. In this context, when probabilistic
methods are used, there should be at least a
50% probability that quantities actually
recovered will equal or expected the sum of
estimated proved plus probable reserves.

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In general, probable reserves may include:
1. Reserves anticipated to be proved by normal step-out
drilling where sub-surface control is inadequate to
classify these reserves as proved;
2. Reserves in formations that appear to be productive
base on well log characteristics but lack core data
definitive tests and which are not analogous to
producing or proved reservoirs in the area;
3. Incremental reserves attributable to infill drilling that
could have been classified as proved if closer
statutory spacing had been approved at the time of
the estimate;
4. Reserve attributable to improved recovery methods
that have been established by repeated commercially
successful applications when:
(a) A project or pilot is planned but not in operation;
and
(b) Rock, fluid and reservoir characteristics appear
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favorable for commercial application;


5. reserves in an area of the formation that appears to
be separated from the proved area by faulting and
the geologic interpretation indicates the subject area
is structurally higher than the proved area;

6. Reserves attributable to a future workover,


treatment, re-treatment, change of equipment, or
other mechanical procedures, where such procedures
has not been proved successful in wells which exhibit
similar behavior in analogous reservoirs; and

7. Incremental reserves in proved reservoirs where an


alternative interpretation of performance or
volumetric data indicates more reserves than can be
classified as proved.

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Possible – SPE
Definition
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves
which analysis of geological and engineering
data suggests are less likely to be recoverable
than probable reserves. In this context, when
probabilistic methods are used, there should
be at least a 10% probability that quantities
actually recovered will equal or expected the
sum of estimated proved plus probable plus
possible reserves.

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In general, possible reserves may include:
1. reserves which, based on geological interpretations,
could possible exist beyond areas classified as
probable.
2. Reserves in formations that appear to be petroleum
bearing based on log and core analysis but may not
be productive at commercial rates;
3. Incremental reserves attributed to infill drilling that
are subject to technical uncertainty;
4. Reserves attributed to improved recovery methods
(a) a project or pilot is planned but not in operation;
when
and
(b) rock, fluid and reservoir characteristics are such
that a reasonable doubt exists that the project will
be commercial; and
5. Reserves in an area of the formation that appears to
be separated from the proved area by faulting and
geological interpretation indicates the subject area28 is
structurally lower than the proved area.
References
 Andrew A. Young:”The Importance of
Reserves Definitions: Global Acceptance
and Consistent Rporting”, AJM 2004.
 Louis Rozman:”A Comparison Between
Petroleum Reserve Reporting & Mineral
reserve Reporting”, AJM 2004.
 Ian Paton:”Are Reserves and Intrinsic
Property of the Reservoir or The Result of
Engineering”, AJM 2004.

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