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Adjusted Forecasting

• The exponential smoothing forecasting technique


adjusted for trend changes and seasonal patterns.

• The formula for:


Trend Factor : Tt = β ( Ft – Ft-1 )+ (1 – β ) Tt-1
𝟏 −β
Adjusted Forecast: AFt = Ft + ( ) Tt
β
where :
Tt - the present period trend factor
Tt-1 - the last period trend factor
Ft - the present period forecast
Ft-1 - the last period forecast
AFt - the adjusted forecast in the present period
Sample Problem:
The Beta automobile dealer in Quezon Avenue area
wants to accurately forecast demand for the Beta
special edition car during the next month. Because the
distributor is in Korea, it is difficult to send cars back or
recorder if the proper number of cars is not ordered a
month ahead. From sales records, the dealer has
accumulated the following data for the past year.
Calculate the adjusted exponential smoothing.
Month Motorcycles Demanded
January 60
February 70
March 50
April 90
May 10
June 80
July 150
August 70
September 110
October 150
November 130
December
Motorcycles
Month F for α = 0.1
Demanded

Solution
January 60 -
February 70 60
March 50 61
April 90 59.9

Let May 10 62.91


June 80 57.62
AF2 = F2 = 60 July 150 59.86
August 70 68.87
T2 = 0 September 110 68.98
for β = 0.20 October 150 73.08
November 130 80.77
December 85.69

For period 3 𝟏 −β
AF3= F3 + ( ) T3
T3 = β ( F3 – F2)+ (1 – β ) T2 β
T3 = 0.2 ( 61 – 60)+ (1 – 0.20) (0) 1 −0.20
AF3= 61 + ( ) (0.20)
T3 = 0.20 0.20
AF3= 61.80
Month Motorcycles Demanded F for α = 0.1 AF for β = 0.2
January 60 - -
February 70 60 60
March 50 61 61.8
April 90 59.9 59.66
May 10 62.91 65.11
June 80 57.62 55.14
July 150 59.86 59.66
August 70 68.87 75.91
September 110 68.98 74.70
October 150 73.08 80.42
November 130 80.77 93.21
December 85.69 99.57
Adjusted Exponential Smoothed Forecast w/ α = 0.1 and β = 0.2
160

140

120

100
Motorcycle Demand

80

60

40

20

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month

Actual 0.1 0.2