Matakuliah : 0442K-Metode Kuantitatif

Project Scheduling : PERT/CPM

Session 9
 Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM

Material Outline

 Project Scheduling with Known Activity

Times
 Project Scheduling with Uncertain Activity
Times
 Considering Time-Cost Trade-Offs
 Material Outline

• Structure of a Waiting Line System

• Single-Channel Waiting Line Model with
Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service
Times
• Multiple-Channel Waiting Line Model with
Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service
Times
 Structure of a Waiting Line System

• Queuing theory is the study of waiting lines.

• Four characteristics of a queuing system are:
– the manner in which customers arrive
– the time required for service
– the priority determining the order of service
– the number and configuration of servers in the system.
 Structure of a Waiting Line System
• Distribution of Arrivals
– Generally, the arrival of customers into the system is a random
event.
– Frequently the arrival pattern is modeled as a Poisson process.
• Distribution of Service Times
– Service time is also usually a random variable.
– A distribution commonly used to describe service time is the
exponential distribution.
• Queue Discipline
– Most common queue discipline is first come, first served (FCFS).
– An elevator is an example of last come, first served (LCFS)
queue discipline.
– Other disciplines assign priorities to the waiting units and then
serve the unit with the highest priority first.
 Structure of a Waiting Line System

• Single Service Channel System

Customer Waiting line

arrives S1 Customer
leaves

• Multiple Service Channels System

S1
Customer Waiting line Customer
arrives S2 leaves

S3
 M/M/1 Queuing System
• Single channel
• Poisson arrival-rate distribution
• Exponential service-time distribution
• Unlimited maximum queue length
• Infinite calling population
• Examples:
– Single-window theatre ticket sales booth
– Single-scanner airport security station
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• M/M/1 Queuing System
Joe Ferris is a stock trader on the floor of the New York
Stock Exchange for the firm of Smith, Jones, Johnson, and
Thomas, Inc. Stock transactions arrive at a mean rate of 20
per hour. Each order received by Joe requires an average of
two minutes to process.

 M/M/1 Queuing System

Orders arrive at a mean rate of 20 per hour or one order
every 3 minutes. Therefore, in a 15 minute interval the
average number of orders arriving will be
 = 15/3 = 5.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Arrival Rate Distribution
Question
What is the probability that no orders are received within
a 15-minute period?
Answer
P (x = 0) = (50e -5)/0! = e -5 = .0067
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Arrival Rate Distribution
Question
What is the probability that exactly 3 orders are received
within a 15-minute period?
Answer P (x = 3) = (53e -5)/3! = 125(.0067)/6 = .1396

• Arrival Rate Distribution

Question
What is the probability that more than 6 orders arrive
within a 15-minute period?
Answer P (x > 6) = 1 - P (x = 0) - P (x = 1) - P (x = 2)
- P (x = 3) - P (x = 4) - P (x = 5)
- P (x = 6)
= 1 - .762 = .238
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Service Rate Distribution
Question
What is the mean service rate per hour?

Answer
Since Joe Ferris can process an order in an average
time of 2 minutes (= 2/60 hr.), then the mean service
rate, µ, is µ = 1/(mean service time), or 60/2.

m = 30/hr.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Service Time Distribution
Question
What percentage of the orders will take less than
one minute to process?

Answer
Since the units are expressed in hours,
P (T < 1 minute) = P (T < 1/60 hour).
Using the exponential distribution, P (T < t ) = 1 - e-µt.
Hence, P (T < 1/60) = 1 - e-30(1/60)
= 1 - .6065 = .3935 = 39.35%
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Service Time Distribution
Question
What percentage of the orders will be processed in
exactly 3 minutes?

Answer
Since the exponential distribution is a continuous
distribution, the probability a service time exactly equals
any specific value is 0.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Service Time Distribution
Question
What percentage of the orders will require more
than 3 minutes to process?

Answer
The percentage of orders requiring more than 3
minutes to process is:
P (T > 3/60) = e-30(3/60) = e -1.5 = .2231 = 2.31%
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Average Time in the System
Question
What is the average time an order must wait from
the time Joe receives the order until it is finished being
processed (i.e. its turnaround time)?
Answer
This is an M/M/1 queue with  = 20 per hour and m =
30 per hour. The average time an order waits in the
system is: W = 1/(µ -  )
= 1/(30 - 20)
= 1/10 hour or 6 minutes
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Average Length of Queue
Question
What is the average number of orders Joe has
waiting to be processed?
Answer
Average number of orders waiting in the queue is:
Lq = 2/[µ(µ - )]
= (20)2/[(30)(30-20)]
= 400/300
= 4/3
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Utilization Factor
Question
What percentage of the time is Joe processing
orders?

Answer
The percentage of time Joe is processing orders is
equivalent to the utilization factor, /m. Thus, the
percentage of time he is processing orders is:
/m = 20/30
= 2/3 or 66.67%
 M/M/k Queuing System
• Multiple channels (with one central waiting line)
• Poisson arrival-rate distribution
• Exponential service-time distribution
• Unlimited maximum queue length
• Infinite calling population
• Examples:
– Four-teller transaction counter in bank
– Two-clerk returns counter in retail store
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)
• M/M/2 Queuing System
Smith, Jones, Johnson, and Thomas, Inc. has begun
a major advertising campaign which it believes will
increase its business 50%. To handle the increased
volume, the company has hired an additional floor trader,
Fred Hanson, who works at the same speed as Joe
Ferris.
Note that the new arrival rate of orders,  , is 50%
higher than that of problem (A). Thus,  = 1.5(20) = 30
per hour.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)
• Sufficient Service Rate
Question
Why will Joe Ferris alone not be able to handle the
increase in orders?

Answer
Since Joe Ferris processes orders at a mean rate
of µ = 30 per hour, then  = µ = 30 and the utilization
factor is 1.
This implies the queue of orders will grow infinitely
large. Hence, Joe alone cannot handle this increase in
demand.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)
• Probability of n Units in System
Question
What is the probability that neither Joe nor Fred will be
working on an order at any point in time?
Answer
Given that  = 30, µ = 30, k = 2 and ( /µ) = 1, the probability
that neither Joe nor Fred will be working is:
1
P0  k 1
( / m ) n ( / m ) k km

n 0 n !

k !
(
km  
)

= 1/[(1 + (1/1!)(30/30)1] + [(1/2!)(1)2][2(30)/(2(30)-30)]

= 1/(1 + 1 + 1) = 1/3 = .333

 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)
• Probability of n Units in System (continued)
Answer
Given that  = 30, µ = 30, k = 2 and ( /µ) = 1, the probability
that neither Joe nor Fred will be working is:
1
P0  k 1
( / m ) n ( / m ) k km

n 0 n !

k !
(
km  
)

= 1/[(1 + (1/1!)(30/30)1] + [(1/2!)(1)2][2(30)/(2(30)-30)]

= 1/(1 + 1 + 1) = 1/3 = .333

 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)
• Average Time in System
Question
What is the average turnaround time for an order
with both Joe and Fred working?
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)
• Average Time in System (continued)
Answer
The average turnaround time is the average
waiting time in the system, W.
m ( m )k (30)(30)(30 30)2 1
Lq  ( P0 )  (1/3) 
( k  1)!( km   ) 2
(1!)(2(30)  30) 2
3

L = Lq + ( /µ) = 1/3 + (30/30) = 4/3

W = L/ (4/3)/30 = 4/90 hr. = 2.67 min.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)
• Average Length of Queue
Question
What is the average number of orders waiting to be
filled with both Joe and Fred working?

Answer
The average number of orders waiting to be filled is
Lq. This was calculated earlier as 1/3.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)
• Creating Special Excel Function to Compute P0
Select the Tools pull-down menu
Select the Macro option
Choose the Visual Basic Editor
When the Visual Basic Editor appears
Select the Insert pull-down menu
Choose the Module option
When the Module sheet appears
Enter Function Po (k,lamda,mu)
Enter Visual Basic program (on next slide)
Select the File pull-down menu
Choose the Close and Return to MS Excel option
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

• Visual Basic Module for P0 Function

Function Po(k, lamda, mu)
Sum = 0
For n = 0 to k - 1
Sum = Sum + (lamda/mu) ^ n / Application.Fact(n)
Next
Po = 1/(Sum+(lamda/mu)^k/Application.Fact(k))*
(k*mu/(k*mu-lamda)))
End Function
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)
• Economic Analysis of Queuing Systems
The advertising campaign of Smith, Jones, Johnson
and Thomas, Inc. (see problems (A) and (B)) was so
successful that business actually doubled. The mean
rate of stock orders arriving at the exchange is now 40
per hour and the company must decide how many floor
traders to employ. Each floor trader hired can process
an order in an average time of 2 minutes.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)
• Economic Analysis of Queuing Systems
Based on a number of factors the brokerage firm
has determined the average waiting cost per minute for
an order to be $.50. Floor traders hired will earn $20 per
hour in wages and benefits. Using this information
compare the total hourly cost of hiring 2 traders with that
of hiring 3 traders.
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)
• Economic Analysis of Waiting Lines
Total Hourly Cost
= (Total salary cost per hour)
+ (Total hourly cost for orders in the system)
= ($20 per trader per hour) x (Number of traders)
+ ($30 waiting cost per hour) x (Average number
of orders in the
system)
= 20k + 30L.
Thus, L must be determined for k = 2 traders
and for k = 3 traders with  = 40/hr. and m = 30/hr.
(since the average service time is 2 minutes (1/30
hr.).
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)
• Cost of Two Servers
1
P0 
k  1 ( / m )n ( / m ) k km
  ( )
n 0 n! k! km  
P0 = 1 / [1+(1/1!)(40/30)]+[(1/2!)(40/30)2(60/(60-40))]

= 1 / [1 + (4/3) + (8/3)]

= 1/5
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)
• Cost of Two Servers (continued)

Thus,
m ( m )k (40)(30)(40 30)2 16
Lq  ( P0 )  (1/5) 
( k  1)!( km   ) 2
(1!)(2(30)  40) 2
15
L = Lq + ( /µ) = 16/15 + 4/3 = 2.40

Total Cost = (20)(2) + 30(2.40) = $112.00 per

hour
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)
• Cost of Three Servers
1
P0 
k  1 (  / m )n ( / m )k km
  ( )
n 0 n! k! km  

P0 = 1/[[1+(1/1!)(40/30)+(1/2!)(40/30)2]+
[(1/3!)(40/30)3(90/(90-40))] ]
= 1 / [1 + 4/3 + 8/9 + 32/45]
= 15/59
 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)
• Cost of Three Servers (continued)
m ( m )k (30)(40)(40 30)3
Lq  ( P0 )  (15/59)  .1446
( k  1)!( km   ) 2
(2!)(3(30)  40) 2

Thus, L = .1446 + 40/30 = 1.4780

Total Cost = (20)(3) + 30(1.4780) = $104.35 per hour

 Example: SJJT, Inc. (C)
• System Cost Comparison

Wage Waiting Total

Cost/Hr Cost/Hr Cost/Hr
2 Traders $40.00 $82.00 $112.00
3 Traders 60.00 44.35 104.35

Thus, the cost of having 3 traders is less than that of 2

traders.
 M/D/1 Queuing System

• Single channel
• Poisson arrival-rate distribution
• Constant service time
• Unlimited maximum queue length
• Infinite calling population
• Examples:
– Single-booth automatic car wash
– Coffee vending machine
 Example: Ride ‘Em Cowboy!
• M/D/1 Queuing System
The mechanical pony ride machine at the entrance
to a very popular J-Mart store provides 2 minutes of
riding for $.50. Children wanting to ride the pony arrive
(accompanied of course) according to a Poisson
distribution with a mean rate of 15 per hour.

What fraction of the time is the pony idle?

 = 15 per hour
m = 60/2 = 30 per hour
Utilization = /m = 15/30 = .5
Idle fraction = 1 – Utilization = 1 - .5 = .5
 Example: Ride ‘Em Cowboy!
• What is the average number of children waiting to ride
the pony?
2 (15)2
Lq = =  .25 children
2m (m - ) 2(30)(30 - 15)

• What is the average time a child waits for a ride?

 15
Wq = =  .01667 hours
2m (m - ) 2(30)(30 - 15)
(or 1 minute)
 M/G/k Queuing System

• Multiple channels
• Poisson arrival-rate distribution
• Arbitrary service times
• No waiting line
• Infinite calling population
• Example:
– Telephone system with k lines. (When all k lines are being
used, additional callers get a busy signal.)
 Example: Allen-Booth

• M/G/k Queuing System

Allen-Booth (A-B) is an OTC market maker. A broker wishing
to trade a particular stock for a client will call on a firm like Allen-
Booth to execute the order. If the market maker's phone line is
busy, a broker will immediately try calling another market maker to
transact the order.
A-B estimates that on the average, a broker will try to call to
execute a stock transaction every two minutes.
The time required to complete the transaction averages 75
seconds. A-B has four traders staffing its phones. Assume calls
arrive according to a Poisson distribution.
 Example: Allen-Booth
This problem can be modeled as an M/G/k
system with block customers cleared with:
1/ = 2 minutes = 2/60 hour
 = 60/2 = 30 per hour
1/µ = 75 sec. = 75/60 min. = 75/3600 hr.
µ = 3600/75 = 48 per hour
 Example: Allen-Booth

• % of A-B’s Customers Lost Due to Busy Line

First, we must solve for P0
1
P0  k
where k = 4
 (
i 0
 m )i
i!

1
P0 =
1 + (30/48) + (30/48)2/2! + (30/48)3/3! + (30/48)4/4!
P0 = .536
continued
 Example: Allen-Booth

• % of A-B’s Customers Lost Due to Busy Line

(  m )k (30 48)4
Now, P4  P0  (.536)  .003
k! 4!
Thus, with four traders 0.3% of the potential
customers are lost.