A Sustainable Energy

Future
Paul Komor
ESTCON 2014
Earthrise, 1968
1968-2014
 Great success in
reducing emissions!
EU: SOx down 82%

SOx US: SO2 down 79%

Cuyahoga River, 1969

Cuyahoga River, 2014

But challenges remain…
Challenge: Energy Costs
Challenge: Limited Fossil
Fuel Supplies
Challenge: Energy
Access
Challenge: CO2
Emissions
We did not come to fear the future. We
came here to shape it.
President Obama, Sep. 9, 2009
What Might a Sustainable Energy
Future Look Like?
0 CO2, 0 Net Energy
House
~ 0 Net Energy Office
Building
~ 0 Net Energy
Apartments
Zero Tailpipe Emission
Vehicles
If something exists, it
must be possible.
Source: IEA, WEO 2013
Paths to a Sustainable
Energy Future

Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovation
Keys to a Sustainable
Energy Future
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovation
Renewable Energy
 Renewable Energy

Unlimited and sustainable resource

Available anywhere the sun shines or the wind

blows

~0 CO2 emissions
 Wind Power

A global success story!

~25% annual growth rate,
2007-2012
Now provides >20% of
electricity in Denmark,
Portugal, and parts of
Germany, Australia, and the
U.S.
Source: REN 21
Malaysia Wind Resource:
Worth a Closer Look

Source: IRENA
Global Atlas
 Photovoltaics (PV)

Dramatic cost reductions in last 5

years

In transition from niche to low-

cost option

Will revolutionize the electricity

industry
Source: REN 21
PV: ~$3/W

Source: DOE, 2013

 PV the lowest cost option!

“This is the first time that we’ve seen, purely on a price basis, th
-David Eves, CEO, Xcel Energy

Source: Denver Business Journal

 Malaysia Solar Resource

Covering 0.3% of
Peninsular Malaysia with
solar PV panels would
provide as much electricity
as Malaysia uses each
year.
 Renewable Energy

“…(renewable energy) accounted for just over half of the new e

Source: IPCC, 2014

Keys to a Sustainable
Energy Future
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovation
Energy Efficiency: The
Lowest Cost Resource
 Energy Efficiency: The
Lowest Cost Resource

Example: Replace 75 watt light with 10 watt LED. Electricity

demand reduced by (75-10) = 65 watts.

LED costs $5. Assume ‘on’ 8 hours/day.

$5/(65/3) = $0.23/watt (compare to new coal at ~$2/watt).
The low-cost power plant at
my local DIY store

90% lower first cost than a

coal-burning power plant

The ‘negawatt’ power plant

Source: IEA, 2013
Source: McKinsey, 2010
Energy Efficiency: Low hanging fruit
that grows back!
Keys to a Sustainable
Energy Future
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovation
Energy Innovations:
My top 10
1. The negawatt power
plant
2. The solar lease
3. Storage Techologies

Source: Komor et al. 2012

4. Mobile Storage
5. Very smart thermostats
 6. Integrated
home/car/power plant

Source: NYT, 3/25/14

7. System Integration

Source: IEA, 2014

8. Networked
Technologies

Source: IEA, 2013

9. Policy innovation

Source: IEA, 2014

10. Innovative energy
education

engineeringanywhere.colorado.edu
 What next?

Change is underway, but needs to accelerate

Need to increase adoption of known solutions
Need to promote innovation in business models,
technologies, policies, and institutions
A sustainable future is within our reach!
 b

Earthrise, 1968 Earthrise, 2068

END
 References

IPCC 2014: http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-

for-policymakers_approved.pdf

McKinsey global cost curve:

http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/sustainability/latest_thinking/green
house_gas_abatement_cost_curves

Storage graph: Komor and Glassmire 2012, IRENA report

World lighting market data: IEA 2013 Energy Efficiency Market Report

earth rise picture: http://grin.hq.nasa.gov/ABSTRACTS/GPN-2001-

000009.html

System integration graphic: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2014

 Honda house: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/25/business/car-companies-take-expertise-
in-battery-power-beyond-the-
garage.html?emc=edit_tnt_20140325&nlid=48405466&tntemail0=y&_r=1

EU emissions data: EU Emission Inventory Report

http://www.eea.europa.eu//publications/eu-emission-inventory-report-lrtap

US coal consumption and emissions: http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/quarterlytracking.html

crude oil price summary: http://www.eia.gov/beta/MER/index.cfm?tbl=T09.01#/?f=A

Energy poverty numbers: http://www.iea.org/topics/energypoverty/

Obama quote: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-to-a-

Joint-Session-of-Congress-on-Health-Care

Davis housing:
http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2013/11/27/uc-davis-west-village-sustainable-energy-future
India 0 energy building:
http://www.indiraparyavaranbhawan.com

Malaysia 0 energy building:

http://www.cleanenergyactionproject.com/CleanEnergyActionPr
oject/CS.Pusat_Tenaga_Malaysia_Zero_Energy_Office_Buildi
ng___Zero_Net_Energy_Building_Case_Study.html

Wind data: REN 21

Malaysia elec demand:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_Malaysia
Wind cost data: DOE, 2012 - Wiser et al. 2013, http://emp.lbl.gov/reports

IRENA global atlas: http://globalatlas.irena.org

US PV cost data: DOE, 2013 - Feldman et al. http://emp.lbl.gov/reports

Malaysia PV potential: Medium dark brown is 20 MJ/m2/day (

http://161.142.139.60/solar/peninsula/annual.jpg ) 1 MJ = 0.28 kWh (direct
conversion). Malaysia total elec. use = 94E9 kWh/yr
(http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=my&v=81 ) Land area of Pen
May ~ 132,000 km2
(https://www.google.com/#q=peninsular+malaysia+land+area ). 1% =
1320 km2 = 1320E6 m2 = 2.64E10 MJ/day. 10% conversion effic.:
2.64E10 * 0,28 * 0.1 = = 739E6 kWh/day = 270E9 kWh/yr.