8A-1

Waiting Line Analysis

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OBJECTIVES

• Waiting Line Characteristics

• Suggestions for Managing
Queues
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Disney World

• Waiting in lines does not add enjoyment

• Waiting in lines does not generate
revenue
Waiting lines are non-value added occurrences
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Waiting Lines

• Queuing theory: Mathematical approach to the

analysis of waiting lines.
• Goal of queuing analysis is to minimize the
sum of two costs
– Customer waiting costs
– Service capacity costs
• Waiting lines are non-value added
occurrences
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Implications of Waiting Lines

• Cost to provide waiting space

• Loss of business
– Customers leaving
– Customers refusing to wait
• Loss of goodwill
• Reduction in customer satisfaction
• Congestion may disrupt other business
operations
 8A-6

Suggestions for Managing Queues

1. Determine an acceptable waiting

time for your customers
2. Try to divert your customer’s
attention when waiting
3. Inform your customers of what to
expect
4. Keep employees not serving the
customers out of sight
5. Segment customers
 8A-7

Suggestions for Managing Queues (Continued)

6. Train your servers to be friendly

7. Encourage customers to come
during the slack periods
8. Take a long-term perspective
toward getting rid of the queues
 8A-8

Queuing Analysis
Figure 18.1

Total Customer Capacity

cost = waiting cost + cost
Cost

Total cost
Cost of
service
capacity

Cost of
customers
waiting

Service capacity Optimum

 8A-9

System Characteristics

• Population Source
– Infinite source: customer arrivals are
unrestricted
– Finite source: number of potential
customers is limited
• Number of observers (channels)
• Arrival and service patterns
• Queue discipline (order of service)
 8A-10

Components of the Queuing System

Servicing System
Servers
Queue or
Customer Waiting Line
Arrivals Exit
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Queuing Systems
Figure 18.3

Multiple channel

Multiple phase
Channel: A server in
a service system
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The Queuing System

Length

Queuing Number of Lines &

Queue Discipline
System Line Structures

Service Time
Distribution
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Poisson Distribution
Figure 18.4

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 8A-14

Waiting line Models

• Patient
– Customers enter the waiting line and remain
until served
• Reneging
– Waiting customers grow impatient and leave
the line
• Jockeying
– Customers may switch to another line
• Balking
– Upon arriving, decide the line is too long and
decide not to enter the line
 8A-15

Waiting Time vs. Utilization

Figure 18.6
Average number on
time waiting in line

0 100%
System Utilization
 8A-16

System Performance

Measured by:
1. Average number of customers waiting
2. Average time customers wait
3. System utilization
4. Implied cost
5. Probability that an arrival will have to
wait
 8A-17

Customer Service Population Sources

Population Source

Finite Infinite
Example: Number Example: The
of machines number of people
needing repair who could wait in
when a company a line for
only has three gasoline.
machines.
 8A-18

Service Pattern

Service
Pattern

Constant Variable
Example: Items Example: People
coming down an spending time
automated shopping.
assembly line.
 8A-19

Queuing Models: Infinite-Source

1.Single channel, exponential service time

2.Single channel, constant service time
3.Multiple channel, exponential service
time
4.Multiple priority service, exponential
service time
 8A-20

Waiting Line Models

Source
Model Layout Population Service Pattern
1 Single channel Infinite Exponential
2 Single channel Infinite Constant
3 Multichannel Infinite Exponential
4 Single or Multi Finite Exponential

These four models share the following characteristics:

 Single phase
 Poisson arrival
 FCFS
 Unlimited queue length
 8A-21

Notation: Infinite Queuing: Models 1-3

 = Arrival rate
 = Service rate
1
 Average service time

1
 Average time between arrivals


 = = Ratio of total arrival rate to sevice rate

for a single server
Lq  Average number wai ting in line
 8A-22

Infinite Queuing Models 1-3 (Continued)

Ls = Average number in system

(including those being served)
Wq = Average time waiting in line
Ws  Average total time in system
(including time to be served)
n  Number of units in the system
S = Number of identical service channels
Pn  Probabilit y of exactly n units in system
Pw  Probabilit y of waiting in line
 8A-23

Priority Model

Processing
order

1 3 2 1 1

Arrivals Waiting Service Exit

line
Arrivals are assigned
a priority as they arrive System
 8A-24

Finite-Source Formulas
Table 18.6
T
Service factor X
T U
Average number waiting L  N (1  F)
L(T  U ) T(1  F)
Average waiting time W 
NL XF
Average number running J  NF(1  X )
Average number being served H  FNX
Number in population N  J  L H
 8A-25

Finite-Source Queuing

Not waiting or Being

Waiting
being served served

J L H

U W T

JH
F
J  LH
 8A-26

Examples of Line Structures

Single
Multiphase
Phase

One-person
Single Channel Car wash
barber shop

Bank tellers’ Hospital

Multichannel
windows admissions
 8A-27

Degree of Patience

No Way! No Way!

BALK RENEG
 8A-28

Example: Model 1
Assume a drive-up window at a fast food restaurant.
Customers arrive at the rate of 25 per hour.
The employee can serve one customer every two
minutes.
Assume Poisson arrival and exponential service
rates.
Determine:
A) What is the average utilization of the employee?
B) What is the average number of customers in line?
C) What is the average number of customers in the
system?
D) What is the average waiting time in line?
E) What is the average waiting time in the system?
F) What is the probability that exactly two cars will be
in the system?
 8A-29

Example: Model 1

A) What is the average utilization of the

employee?

 = 25 cust / hr
1 customer
 = = 30 cust / hr
2 mins (1hr / 60 mins)

 25 cust / hr
 = = = .8333
 30 cust / hr
 8A-30

Example: Model 1

B) What is the average number of customers in

line?

 2
(25) 2
Lq = = = 4.167
 ( -  ) 30(30 - 25)
C) What is the average number of customers in
the system?


25
Ls = = =5
 -  (30 - 25)
 8A-31

Example: Model 1

D) What is the average waiting time in line?

Lq
Wq = = .1667 hrs = 10 mins

E) What is the average waiting time in the system?

Ls
Ws = = .2 hrs = 12 mins

 8A-32

Example: Model 1

F) What is the probability that exactly two cars

will be in the system (one being served and the
other waiting in line)?

  n
pn = (1 - )( )
 

25 25 2
p 2 = (1 - )( ) = .1157
30 30
 8A-33

Example: Model 2

An automated pizza vending machine

heats and
dispenses a slice of pizza in 4 minutes.

Customers arrive at a rate of one every 6

minutes with the arrival rate exhibiting a
Poisson distribution.
Determine:

A) The average number of customers in line.

B) The average total waiting time in the system.
 8A-34

Example: Model 2

A) The average number of customers in line.

 2
(10) 2
Lq = = = .6667
2 (  -  ) (2)(15)(15 - 10)

B) The average total waiting time in the system.

Lq .6667
Wq = = = .06667 hrs = 4 mins
 10

1 1
Ws = Wq + = .06667 hrs + = .1333 hrs = 8 mins
 15/hr
 8A-35

Example: Model 3
Recall the Model 1 example:
Drive-up window at a fast food restaurant.
Customers arrive at the rate of 25 per hour.
The employee can serve one customer
every two minutes.
Assume Poisson arrival and exponential
service rates.

If an identical window (and an identically trained

server) were added, what would the effects be on
the average number of cars in the system and the
total time customers wait before being served?
 8A-36

Example: Model 3

Average number of cars in the system

Lq = 0.176
(Exhibit TN7.11 - -using linear interpolat ion)
 25
Ls = Lq + = .176 + = 1.009
 30
Total time customers wait before being served
Lq.176 customers
Wq = = = .007 mins ( No Wait! )
 25 customers/ min
 8A-37

Notation: Finite Queuing: Model 4

D = Probabilit y that an arrival must wait in line

F  Efficiency factor, a measure of the effect of
having to wait in line
H  Average number of units being served
J = Population source less those in queuing
system ( N - n)
L  Average number of units in line
S  Number of service channels
 8A-38
Finite Queuing: Model 4 (Continued)

n = Average number of units in queuing system

(including the one being served)
N  Number of units in population source
Pn  Probabilit y of exactly n units in queuing system
T = Average time to perform the service
U  Average time between customer service requirements
W  Average waiting time in line
X  Service factor, or proportion of service time required
 8A-39

Example: Model 4

The copy center of an electronics firm has four copy

machines that are all serviced by a single technician.

Every two hours, on average, the machines require

adjustment. The technician spends an average of 10
minutes per machine when adjustment is required.

Assuming Poisson arrivals and exponential service,

how many machines are “down” (on average)?
 8A-40

Example: Model 4

N, the number of machines in the population = 4

M, the number of repair people = 1
T, the time required to service a machine = 10 minutes
U, the average time between service = 2 hours
T 10 m in
X =  = .077
T+ U 10 m in + 120 m in

From Table TN7.11, F = .980 (Interpolation)

L, the number of machines waiting to be
serviced = N(1-F) = 4(1-.980) = .08 machines

H, the number of machines being

serviced = FNX = .980(4)(.077) = .302 machines

Number of machines down = L + H = .382 machines

 8A-41

Queuing Approximation

• This approximation is quick way to analyze a queuing

situation. Now, both interarrival time and service time
distributions are allowed to be general.
• In general, average performance measures (waiting
time in queue, number in queue, etc) can be very well
approximated by mean and variance of the distribution
(distribution shape not very important).
• This is very good news for managers: all you need is
mean and standard deviation, to compute average
waiting time
Define:
Standard deviation of X
Cx  coefficient of variation for r.v. X =
Mean of X
Variance
Cx2  squared coefficient of variation (scv) = Cx  
2

mean2
 8A-42

Queue Approximation

Inputs: S, , , Ca2 ,Cs2

(Alternatively: S, , , variances of interarrival and service time distributions)


Compute  
S

2( S 1)
 Ca2  Cs2
Lq   Lq Ls
1  2 as before, Wq  , and Ws 
 

Ls  Lq  S 
 8A-43

Approximation Example

• Consider a manufacturing process (for example making

plastic parts) consisting of a single stage with five
machines. Processing times have a mean of 5.4 days
and standard deviation of 4 days. The firm operates
make-to-order. Management has collected date on
customer orders, and verified that the time between
orders has a mean of 1.2 days and variance of 0.72
days. What is the average time that an order waits
before being worked on?

Using our “Waiting Line Approximation” spreadsheet we

get:
Lq = 3.154 Expected number of orders waiting to be
completed.
Wq = 3.78 Expected number of days order waits.
Ρ = 0.9 Expected machine utilization.
 8A-44

Other Approaches

• Reduce perceived waiting time

– Magazines in waiting rooms
– Radio/television
– In-flight movies
– Filling out forms
• Derive benefits from waiting
– Place impulse items near checkout
– Advertise other goods/services
 8A-45

Queuing

QAP9
Managing Queues by Business Rules
 8A-46

Waiting Line Management

DWL5
Disney Fast Pass Results/Distributing Queues
 8A-47

Pilot Queue System

DWL6
Fast Pass at Disney’s Animal Kingdom—Statistics
 8A-48

Other Queue Perception Improvers

DWL7
Disney World—Traditional Queue Improvement Methods