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Paul Griffith
National Projects Manager
ATTI
Presentation Outline
• Energy Basics
• Regulated Emissions and Greenhouse Gases
• Global Warming
• EPA and CARB Regulations
• Bus Fuel Options
• Historical Fuel-Use Trends in Bus Industry
• Comparative Emissions
• Conclusions
Forms of Energy
Kinetic (motion) Potential (stored)
– Electrical – Chemical
– Radiant • Petroleum
• Natural Gas
• Solar
• Propane
– Thermal • Biomass
• Geothermal – biodiesel
– Motion – Stored Mechanical
• Wind – Nuclear
– Sound – Gravitational
• Hydropower
6% 94%
(CONSERVATION)
Dependence on Foreign/
Domestic Oil & NG production Unstable Sources Domestic Demand
past their peak
Sources: Assoc. for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas; US Army Corps of Engineers
Non-Renewables: Domestic & World Reserves
300
Domestic Reserves
250
Years of Reserves
World Reserves
200
150
100
50
0
Oil NG LNG Coal Uranium
Fuel
Prices
300
250
Cents per Gallon
200
150
100
U.S.
50
California
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: U.S. DOE, Energy Information Administration
Natural Gas Prices (Commercial Rate)
18
16
14
Price ($/1000 cf)
12
10
4
Residential
2
Commercial
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: U.S. DOE, Energy Information Administration
California Average Retail Electricity Prices
16
14
12
Cost (cents/kWh)
10
8
6
4 Residential
2 Commercial
Industrial
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: California Energy Commission
Normalized Price Trends: Diesel, NG, Elect.
2.5
Price (Relative to 1994)
2.0
1.5
1.0
Diesel (US avg)
0.5 NG (commercial)
Electricity (commercial)
0.0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sources: U.S. DOE, Energy Information Administration; California Energy Commission
Projected Price Trends
NON-RENEWABLES
RENEWABLES
?
Hydroelectric Biomass H2
Stable Stable Tech. Dependent
ELECTRIC GRID
Slow Increase
Combustible fuels
Explosive fuels create security risks
Nuclear materials
Global warming
Smog
Acid rain
Ground-level ozone
Fuel mining/production
– destroys ecosystems & biodiversity
NG
LNG
Coal
Nuclear
N
O
x
&
G
H CO
G
s
D
ri l
lin
M g&
in
in Pro
g
Ex - du
pl Ma ctio
oi jo
Te tat rL nP
rro ion oc ollu
ris of al D tio
Sh tT R a n
ip e m
pi arg str ag
La ng e ic
ts te e
rg I d
e mp Ar
W Th act ea
as er s s
t e ma
Ac D
i lS
ci s
de pos igna
nt al tu
s U re
D n
is
Source: US Army Corps of Engineers (ERDC/CERL TR-05-21)
p e re s
rs olv
e ed
R
Environmental Impacts: Non-Renewables
ad
io
ac
tiv
ity
Wind
Solar
Ethanol
Biomass
Hydrogen
Geothermal
Conservation
Hydroelectric
Ag
. Im
pa
C
O ct
,N s&
O C
o
H x,
az PM mb
ar .E
do ;H m
La us ar is
nd W v es sio
C as t.
&
ns
t
Bi on
rd su e in Tr
m Pr an
Ki
lls p t o s.
Lr ; N ion du
g ct
D oi io
n
am se
;
So s: Vi
m R su
e iv
er al
Su
Ve H Po
lfu yd ll u
ry rE r tio
m lg n
Be y
Lo ni is ,H
w g si
on 2O
-H n s
ea Tm
Si d p.
g. H
Le yd
ro
N ss
o I M
Source: US Army Corps of Engineers (ERDC/CERL TR-05-21)
or
En mp
a e
Environmental Impacts: Renewables
vi ct Be
ro t
nm h an nign
en Fo
ta ss
lI
m il
Fu
pa
ct el
s
>90% of Californians Breath Unhealthy Air at Times
The 1990s were the warmest decade in the past 1,000 years.
Simplified Greenhouse Effect
2.5
Standard Deviations from Mean
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Years Before Present
Sources: Leland McInnes; NOAA; ORNL
Carbon Emissions Since Industrial Revolution
20th Century:
Temp +1.1 °F (+0.6 °C)
Collection of
20 glacier
length records
Length
from different
parts of world
1500 2000
1859
2,500-m retreat,
450-m higher
2001
1875
2,000-m retreat
2004
1914
2004
1911
NPS estimates that all
but a few of the 30
glaciers in this park will
be gone by mid-century
2000
Lake Chad
1960
World’s 6th largest lake
1963-2001
Shrunk 95%;
wetlands spoiled
Measurements indicate a
30% reduction in ocean
circulation volume
since 1957
25º N lat
Significant climate
changes for areas like
Scandinavia and Britain
that are warmed by the
North Atlantic drift.
Sources: World Resources Institute; Ocean current figure: www.NASA.gov; Transect information: Bryden, Harry L.
et al. "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N." Nature 438: 655-657. 1 December 2005
Frequency of Weather Related Disasters
Where to next?
Climate Model Predictions for Global Warming
SRES A2 Emissions Scenario (assumes no action taken to reduce emissions)
No Silver Bullet
Source: APTA
Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct)
16.0
CO
14.0
12.0
98% Reduction 1988-2010
10.0
8.0
NOx
6.0
4.0
2.0 HC
0.0
PM NMHC
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fuel Characteristics
• Ethanol
– increased cost of operation
– option for vans; hybrid cutaway bus in development
• Methanol
– increased cost of operation
– toxic, water-soluble fluid, creating concerns about
groundwater contamination from release during an accident
– corrosive, attacking engine and fuel system components
– although regulated emissions reduced, formaldehyde is
produced
Criteria Emissions
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2006 Comparative Emissions: Diesel vs. CNG
Certified Emissions for 2006 230-hp Cummins ISB/BG 230
NOx NMHC PM10 CO
LS Diesel1 (g/bhp-hr) 2.03 0.08 0.10 1.3
CNG (g/bhp-hr) 1.43 0.00 0.00 1.0
1 Tested with Low-Sulfur Diesel (500 ppm). Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (15 ppm) reduces
emissions of sulfur compounds enabling NOx, HC, and PM reductions.
60% CO
40%
20%
0%
??
LS ULSD or Hybrid CNG Electric Electric
Diesel B20 (B20 or Local Total
MY2007 ULSD)
MY2010
Sources: Cummins; CARB; US EPA; EPRI; SBMTD
Well-to-Wheels Emissions
800
600
400
200
0
CNG/LNG
Hybrid
Hybrid
Propane
B20
Diesel
(B20)
Source: CSIRO (Life-Cycle Emissions Analysis of Alternative Fuels for Heavy Vehicles)
GHG Emissions: CH4
Transit Buses Combustion
3.0
Fuel Production
2.5
2.0
g/km
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
CNG/LNG
Hybrid
Hybrid
Propane
Diesel
B20
(B20)
Source: CSIRO (Life-Cycle Emissions Analysis of Alternative Fuels for Heavy Vehicles)
GHG Emissions: N2O
Transit Buses
Combustion
0.14
Fuel Production
0.12
0.10
0.08
g/km
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
CNG/LNG
Hybrid
Hybrid
B20
Propane
Diesel
(B20)
Source: CSIRO (Life-Cycle Emissions Analysis of Alternative Fuels for Heavy Vehicles)
Global Warming Potential of GHGs
% of Global Warming
Greenhouse Gas
Total Potential (100-yr)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 72% 1
1600
GWP Wtd. Fuel Production
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
CNG/LNG
Hybrid
Hybrid
Propane
Diesel
B20
(B20)
Source: CSIRO (Life-Cycle Emissions Analysis of Alternative Fuels for Heavy Vehicles)
Summary & Conclusions
• CNG has dominated the alt fuels bus market
• Emissions gap between diesel & alt fuels narrowing
– 2010 regulations: diesel emissions comparable with alt fuels
• Biodiesel
– lowest capital cost of alt fuels
– Renewable, energy security, reduced GHG emissions
• Bus industry moving towards diesel hybrids
– improved fuel economy, reduced emissions
• Electric Buses
– lowest emissions