Manajemen Risiko (MS141211)

Jurusan Transportasi Laut

Firmanto Hadi
Kriteria Penilaian

Ujian Akhir Semester : 40%

Ujian Tengah Semester : 30%

Tugas Individu : 15%

Tugas Kelompok (Presentasi) : 15%

Absen Kurang dari 80% : UAS dianggap nol

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 2

Definisi Risiko
1. Secara umum diartikan sebagai:
“peluang terjadinya sesuatu dimasa depan yang
tidak sesuai dengan yang kita harapkan”

2. Risiko timbul karena KETIDAK-MAMPUAN

kita MENGETAHUI SECARA PASTI apa yang
akan TERJADI DIMASA DEPAN

3. Setiap berhadapan dengan ketidak pastian

saat itulah risiko muncul

4. So… Risk means Uncertainty

5. Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary:

a. Certainty “a state of being free from doubt”
b. Uncertainty “doubt about ability to predict
the future outcome of current action”

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 3

Uncertainty
Now Future
Time Frame
Activities Outcomes
Favorable
(Opportunities)
Activities
Unfavorable
(Risks)
Risk Management’s function is to move uncertainty away from risk
and towards opportunity
Sumber: PMBOK, Project and Program Risk Management

1. Ketidak-pastian timbul karena kita tidak memiliki informasi yang cukup tentang
outcome yang akan diperoleh
2. Derajat ketidak-pastian dapat dikurangi dengan menambah/melengkapi
informasi yang dibutuhkan

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 4

Spektrum Ketidak-pastian

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 5

Karakteristik Risiko

Risiko Subyektif
Risiko Obyektif

• Dapat diukur secara • Tidak dapat diukur

matermatis dengan secara pasti
TEPAT • Tergantung orang
• Semua orang akan yang mengukur
sepakat • Contoh: ramalan
• Contoh: lempar cuaca, inflasi
dadu, koin, kartu

Fakta  Risiko yang paling banyak kita hadapi

adalah RISIKO SUBYEKTIF
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Jenis Risiko
Risiko Usaha/Spekulatif
(Business/Speculative Risk)
• Terdapat 2 peluang (Untung/rugi)
• Outcome Favorable  UNTUNG
• Outcome Unfavorable  RUGI
• Contoh: Risiko Investasi

Risiko Murni (Pure Risk)

• Hanya ada satu peluang (Rugi)
• Outcome Favorable  NO GAIN
• Outcome Unfavorable  RUGI
• Contoh: Risiko kerusakan mesin
• Sering disebut sebagai insurable risk

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 7

 Risiko adalah masalah preferensi

Risiko adalah personal judgment

Daniel Bernoulli
(8 February 1700 – 17 March 1782)

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 8

Risiko Bersifat Dinamis

Reaktif Pro-Aktif
(Crisis Management) (Preventive)

Menghindari Peluru Menghindari Orang bersenjata

Menangkis peluru

Memperbaiki kerusakan

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 9

Risk Universe

Controls
(frequency)

Risk Drivers/
Risks Events Outcomes
Causes

Controls
(severity)

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Risk Drivers and Controls

Risk Drivers Controls

• Increase uncertainty • Reduce uncertainty

• Simply exist • Soften the blow
• Created with thought

Identification of Risks and Elemen Utama

Application of Controls Manajemen Risiko

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 Events and Outcomes
Events Outcomes

• Bukti bhw Risiko itu ada • Konsekuensi dari kejadian (event)

• Kita dpt belajar darinya • Dapat dikendalikan (controlled)
• Memiliki konsekuensi (diinginkan/ • Kemampuan mengendalikan
tdk) outcome menurun ketika
• Terjadi sebelum outcome  msh mendekati outcome
bisa mempengaruhi outcome

Menentukan possible outcomes dan probabilitasnya

Menentukan peluang kejadian (event)

ERM Officer
Menentukan apa yg dapat dilakukan untuk mencegah dampak buruk

Prepare for the worse case

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 12

 Inherent and Residual Risk

Inherent Risk Untreated risk Do Nothing

Controls  mitigate Inherent Risk Residual Risk

So...
Residual Risk Inherent Risk Controls

Main Focus of Risk Management

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 13

Enterprise Risk Management

Enterprise  Perusahaan

Risk  Ketidak-pastian

Management  Mengelola

Mengelola Ketidak-pastian yang ada guna

Mencapai Tujuan Perusahaan

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 14

 Mengapa ManRisk Diperlukan?

Uncertainties
Information

Historical Data

NOW
PAST FUTURE
(decision)

Possible & Probability of:

Dengan • Action Plan
• Events
Man Risk • Prepare for the worse
• Outcomes

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 15

Good Decision vs Good Outcomes

“Since it is not possible to be certain of a good

outcome, increase the probability of good
outcomes by making good decisions”
R. Max Wideman – PMBOK Risk Management

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 16

Risk and Decision Makers
Why should the risk be taken?

What will be gained

What could be lost?

What are the chances of success (and failure)?

What can be done if the desired result is not achieved?

Is the potential reward worth the risk?

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 Tahapan Analisis Risiko

Risk
Management

Identification Assessment Response Documentation

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 18

Elemen Manajemen Risiko

PMBOK COSO

Identification

Assessment
Risk
Management
Response

Documentation

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 19

Elemen Manajemen Risiko
ISO AS/NZS

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 20

Identifikasi Risiko
Mengidentifikasi semua faktor yang
mempengaruhi goal
• Faktor signifikan
• Faktor tidak signifikan

Umumnya dilakukan dengan Risk Identification

Program
• Pendapat Ahli
• Brain-storming
• Workshop

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 Identifikasi Risiko
Identifikasi risiko dapat dilakukan jika kita tahu tujuan kita

Lebih mudah dilakukan dengan mengklasifikasikan sumber risiko (bukan

dampaknya)

PMBOK, mengklasifikasikan risiko:

• External Unpredictable
• External Predictable
• Internal Non-Technical
• Internal Technical
• Legal
Always remember…
“the alligators that you don’t see,
are the ones that bite you”
May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 22
Identifikasi Risiko
Kelompokkan Risiko dalam
• Business Risk
• Pure Risk or Insurable Risk
Ingat!!! Risiko tidak berdiri sendiri (Risk never lived alone)

Kelompokkan risiko menurut tipenya:

• Knowns – Knowns
• Knowns – Unknowns
• Unknowns – Unknowns
Kemlompokkan risiko menurut dampaknya:
• Berdampak pada kualitas
• Berdampak pada biaya
• Berdampak pada waktu
May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 23
 Risk Assessment
Dilakukan setelah identifikasi risiko

Dilakukan untuk menentukan status risiko dalam hal

• Tipe
• Probabilitas kejadian
• Konsekuensi

Tujuan Risk Assessment

• Memahami proyek/bisnis secara umum
• Menjamin ketidak-pastian yang ada telah dipertimbangkan dalam tahap perencanaan
• Mengidentifikasi alternatif2 metode yang tersedia
• Mengidentifikasi dan memahami konsekuensi yang dihadapi
• Meningkatkan koordinasi dan komunikasi antar bagian yang terlibat
• Mengidentifikasi contingency plan

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 24

 Risk Assessment
Dua hal yang harus dihasilkan pada tahap ini:

• Impact (konsekuensinya)
• Probabilitas kejadiannya

Hasil yang diperoleh pada tahap ini umumnya:

• High impact – high probability

• High impact – medium probability
• High impact – low probability
• Dst

Tugas dari manajemen risiko  menentukan mana yang harus

menjadi prioritas utama dan perlu mendapt perhatian

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Risk Assessment Methodology
1. Selection

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Risk Assessment Methodology
2. Simple Assessment Development

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Risk Response
Risk may be:

• Unrecognized, Unmanaged or Ignored (by default)

• Recognized but no action taken (absorbed as a matter of policy)
• Avoided (by taking an appropriate steps)
• Reduced (by an alternative approach)
• Shared (with others, e.g. by joint venture)
• Transferred (to others through contract or insurance)
• Retained and absorbed (by prudent allowances)
• Handled by a combination of the above

Risk
Response

Standard Planning
Insurance
System Alternatives
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Risk Documentation

Historical Database

Current Project Database

Post-project review and archive

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Mengapa ManRisk Sering Gagal?
Terlalu berorientasi Finansial

Bersifat Audit  sering timbul resistensi bagian/departemen

Subyektif

One size fits all

Hasil dari Benchmarking

Aplikasi Sporadis (tidak Well Planned)

Terjebak Detail

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 30

Orientasi Finansial

Financial statements dealing with the

business in a historical context

Simply the result of what has already

occurred in the operations

Financial risk is one of numerous risk

categories that need to be considered

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 Bersifat Audit dan Subyektif

Hindari/Kurangi Subyektifitas Data is the Key

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 32
One size fits all and Benchmark

No two businesses have the same management structure

No two businesses have the same systems

No two businesses have the same business model

No two businesses have the exact same geographic location

No two businesses have the exact same infrastructure

No two businesses have the exact same customer base

Etc…etc…

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 33

Konsep Pengembangan ERM

Corporate
(ERM)

Risk
Strategic Business Management

Project

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 34

 ERM is Business Tool
Corporate Objectives
ERM is Business Plan

Harus sudah
Objectives Must Be… Teridentifikasi Jelas

S • Specific

M • Measurable

A • Achievable

R • Realistic

T • Time bound
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May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 36
Pendahuluan
Application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques
to project activities to meet the project requirements

Project  has a beginning, an end, and well-defined

goals

Meskipun dirancang untuk me-manage project  PM

dapat juga diterapkan dalam business plan perusahaan

Untuk melaksanakan proyek dibutuhkan resources 

manpower, equipment, budget

Project must be completed within a certain time,

budget and specification

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 37

Sejarah Project Management
Dikembangkan lebih dari 50 tahun lalu secara terpisah:
•PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
•CPM (Critical Path Method)

PERT  dikembangkan oleh US Navy, Lockheed, and Booz, Allen and Hamilton

CPM  dikembangkan oleh DuPont and Remington-Rand

PERT  include uncertainty

CPM  certainty

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 38

Lebih jauh tentang PM
Two methods have tended to merge  PERT/CPM

Project consists of a number of tasks that must be completed for the project to be completed

The tasks have duration

• CPM  duration is known

• PERT  duration is uncertain

The tasks have precedence relationship which put constraints on the tasks that can be done
when

Project have three dimensions:

• Time
• Resources
• Scope

PERT/CPM  focuses primarily on time dimension

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 39

Basic Model (CPM)
1. Basic Asumption of CPM, we know:
a. The activities that comprise the project
b. Precedence relationships among activities
c. Time required to complete each activity  certainty
2. The project is complete when all activities have been
completed
3. Each Activities has a set of activities called:
a. Immediate predecessors  that must be completed before
the activity begins
b. Immediate successors  that cannot start until it has
finished
4. A project network diagram usually used to represent
the precedence relationships:
a. AON  Activity On Node  frequently used
b. AOA  Activity On Arc
May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 40
Contoh AON

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Rules for Drawing an AON
1. Include a node for each activity and place its
duration next to the node
2. Include an arc from nod i to node j only if node i is
an immediate predecessor of node j
3. Include a Start and a Finish node with zero
durations.
a. There is an arc from Start node to each node that has no
predecessors
b. There is an arc into the Finish node from each node that
has no successors

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 42

Goal of PM
1. Two problems are typically analyzed in PM:
a. To find the time to complete the project and to allocate the
bottleneck activities
b. To find cost-efficient ways to complete the project within a
given deadline
2. In each problems  a key concept is a bottleneck
activitiy, called critical activity
3. Critical activity is an activity that, if its duration
increases, the time to complete the project necessarily
increase.
4. The set of critical activities is called critical path
5. If the netowork is not too complex (like the previous
example)  critical path can be determined easily 
the longest path from Start to Finisih (using duration
as “distance”)
May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 43
Formulation of PM
1. 𝐸𝐹𝑗 = 𝐸𝑆𝑗 + 𝑑𝑗 , where:
a. 𝐸𝐹𝑗 = 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑗 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠ℎ
b. 𝐸𝑆𝑗 = 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑗 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡
c. 𝑑𝑗 = 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑗
2. 𝐸𝑆𝑗 = max 𝐸𝐹𝑖 , where:
a. 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑗
b. 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑗 𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑠 
activity j cannot start until all of its predecessors have
finised  maximum
3. 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 𝐸𝑆𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠ℎ 𝑛𝑜𝑑𝑒

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 44

Finding Critical Path
1. 𝐿𝑆𝑗 = 𝐿𝐹𝑗 − 𝑑𝑗 , where:
a. 𝐿𝑆𝑗 = 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑗 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡
b. 𝐿𝐹𝑗 = 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑗 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠ℎ
2. 𝐿𝐹𝑖 = 𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝐿𝑆𝑗 , where:
a. 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑗 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖
b. Latest time activity i can finish is the minimum of the
latest start times of all its successors
3. 𝑆𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑗 = 𝐿𝑆𝑗 − 𝐸𝑆𝑗
a. If the slack is positive  could start a bit later without
delaying the project
b. If the slack is zero  critical path

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 45

Contoh
1. Sebuah perusahaan ingin membangun LAN
2. Pembangunan LAN terdiri atas 15 aktivitas
3. Precedence relationship antar ke-15 aktivitas tersebut
adalah seperti gambar di bawah
4. Perusahan ingin mengetahui berapa lama LAN dibangun
dan aktivitas mana yang termasuk dalam critical path

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 46

Contoh
1. Data pembangunan LAN

Penyelesaian

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 47

Modeling Allocation of Resources
1. Contoh sebelumnya  hanya fokus pada waktu
 project complete as soon as possible
2. Durasi sebuah aktivitas  membutuhkan
resources (tenaga kerja, fasiltas/alat, uang, dll)
3. Pada durasi tertentu  dibutuhkan resources
tertentu  trade-off antara resources vs waktu
4. Multi-objective optimization problem:
a. To finish project quickly
b. To consume as few resources as possible (minimize cost)
c. To produce a high-quality project
5. PM  resources monitoring and crashing

May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 48

Contoh
1. Perhatikan contoh sebelumnya (LAN)
2. Asumsikan saat ini melibatkan resources:
a. Man Penyelesaian
b. Money
Engineering Systems Purchasing Installers Training Cost per day
Perform needs analysis 6 $500
Develop specifications 8 $500
Select server 5 $400
Select software 7 $400
Select cables 3 $400
Purchase equipment 4 $300
Develop user manuals 5 $300
Wire offices 8 $450
Set up server 4 $400
Develop training program 9 $300
Install software 6 $400
Connect network 3 5 $450
Train users 8 $300
Test & debug system 5 $400
Get management acceptance $250
Tujuan: mengontrol penggunaan sumberdaya dan melihat bagaimana sumberdaya ini
dipengaruhi oleh saat Start dan aktivitas yang non kritis
May 8, 2018 Manajemen Risiko – Firmanto Hadi 49
Crashing Activities
1. Dengan menggunakan resources spt contoh sebelumnya  waktu yang
dibutuhkan 62 hari
2. Misalnya karena sesuatu hal, proyek tersebut harus selesai dalam 56 hari
3. Durasi setiap aktivitas dapat diperpendek
a. Cost per day of activity time reduction
b. Maximum possible days of reduction
4. Tujuan:
Minimum cost at
new deadline

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Crashing Solution
1. You need to make a few changes:
a. There are now changing cells to indicate how much crashing to
perform
b. There are two constraint:
i. An activity cannot be crashed by more than the allowable limits
ii. The deadline must be met
c. The objective is to minimize the crashing cost
2. Variable and Constraint for Crashing model:
a. Input variable:
i. Activity duration (before crashing)
ii. Precedence relationship
iii. Crashing data
iv. New deadline
b. Decision variable  crashing amount of activities
c. Objective (target cell)  minimize total crashing cost
d. Constraints:
i. Precedence constraints
ii. Carshing amount ≤ maximum reduction Penyelesaian
iii. Porject length ≤ new deadline

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