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2018

Back to the
Future
A Visioning Project with the
Community
Where are We Heading

If you don’t know where you are


going, you’ll end up someplace else.
- Yogi Berra
1968

Plans have helped shape


what our community looks
like today

Require vision and


adaptability

Vision leads to some great


things
Innovative Changes Over Time
Population Growth

Source: UF Bureau of Economy & Business Resource April 2017


How We Have Grown

By 2038 –
44,834 Dwelling Units

Average of 2,000
Dwelling Units/Year

Source: Manatee County Aerial Maps, GIS


Median Age

1998 2018 2038


Source: U.S. Census, 2010
Households 65+

1998 2018 2038


Source: Woods & Poole Economics, 2017
Race, Ethnicity, & Culture
U.S. Florida Manatee Manatee
2000 2000 2000 2050

Black,
Non-Hispanic 12.3% 14.6% 8.2% 8.3%

Hispanic
(Any Race) 12.5% 16.8% 9.3% 38.9%

White,
Non-Hispanic 75.1% 78.9% 86.4% 50.8%

Source: Woods & Poole Economics, 2017


Household Size

Source: Woods & Poole Economics, 2017


economics

Anyone who has ever struggled with


poverty knows how extremely
expensive it is to be poor.
- James A. Baldwin
Unemployment
While the late 1990s saw
strong unemployment rates,
the economic recessions
during the 2000s greatly
impacted the economic
vitality of the county.

Since 2010 however, the


unemployment is nearer to
the 2000 unemployment rate.

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census


Real Median Income
When adjusted to 2017
dollars, the median income
in Manatee County has
consistently fallen since
2000.

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census


Poverty
Following the recessions of
the 2000s, the poverty rate
increased in Manatee county
by almost 5%, but has since
declined to a little over 12%.

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census


Home Ownership
Homeownership has
likewise fallen consistently
since 2000.

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census


Affordable Housing
Despite increased demand
for rental units, the
percentage of households
paying over 35% of income
has remained consistent
Rent over 35% of Income

since 2010, but increased


from 2000.

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census


Educational Attainment
Overall, there are higher
rates of educational
Percentage with Bachelors Degree or Higher

attainment in Manatee
County.

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census


Inflation Rates

52.36% Cumulative Inflation Rate


Since 1997

Projected value of the dollar is assuming


an average inflation rate of 2.32% with a
cumulative inflation rate of 149.86%.
A $20 purchase in 1997 While interest rates can vary, the
would cost $30.54 in 2017. historical inflation trends suggest that
the dollar is going to continue to

By 2037, it could cost $50.


experience inflation.

Source: https://smartasset.com/investing/inflation-calculator
Minimum Wage
While minimum wage has
risen since 1997, the
present minimum wage
2017 Living Wage still falls short of a livable
wage in Manatee County.
Minimum Wage

If minimum wage
continues to rise at it’s
historical rate, it would still
fail to provide an adequate
livable wage.

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (2017)


MIT Living Wage Calculator (2017)
Technological Change
Many industries will be
impacted by technology.

According to a 2015 study,


many jobs – white & blue
collar – will be replaced by
computers.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2017), Frey and Osborn (2013)
Economic Change by Industry in Manatee
County
Where and how we work
are changing. In the late
90s and early 2000s,
Manatee county had
greater amounts of
manufacturing,
construction, agriculture,
whole sale trade, and
public administration jobs.

Now, we have greater


amounts of employment
in Arts and Recreation,
health and education,
warehousing, and retail.

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census


infrastructure

I think our cities' deteriorating


infrastructure is a silent crisis.

- Betsy Hodges
1998 Transportation
SUVs became popular

Electric vehicles a novelty

Segway was the future of


transportation

A Bicycle Plan was in


place…but not followed well
1998 Transportation
Accomplishments
2018 Transportation
Trends:
• USA Growing mostly suburban
• Shifting towards Mobility

Person > Car


• Electric Vehicles are Main Stream
• Rideshare | Uber | Lyft

Transportation Infrastructure
• Complete Streets
• Vision Zero
• Safe Routes to School
• ASCE Grade is D+
2018 Transportation
Accomplishments

• Fort Hamer Bridge


• 44th Avenue Extension
• SR 64 Improvements
• Complete Street Projects in Palmetto
• DeSoto Bridge analysis underway
Supply Heat Map 2018

Source: Transportation Planning Division of Manatee County Public Works


Demand Heat Map 2018

Source: Transportation Planning Division of Manatee County Public Works


Source: Transportation Planning Division of Manatee County Public Works
Supply Meets Demand

Source: Transportation Planning Division of Manatee County Public Works


Supply Meets Demand

Source: Transportation Planning Division of Manatee County Public Works


2038 Transportation
Potable Water
Currently:
• Capacity until 2034
• 1,300+ Miles of Pipe Line
• 7.6 MGD
• Will require new supplies
and sources
• Use of Reclaimed Water
• Ground Water Replacement
Credits
• Continued Conservation

Source: Manatee County Utilities Department


Sewer
• Vital Element of Society
• Vital for the Environment
• Currently 3 Plants
• 1,133+ Miles of Pipe Line
• 4.4 MGD/plant
• Injection wells for effluent
• Continued Conservation from Potable Water are necessary

What happens when these are at capacity?


Is that capacity closer than we think?

Source: Manatee County Utilities Department


Lena Road Landfill
13.8 MCYD Year End & Current
Available Capacity

5.9 MCYD Reserved

2042 Lifespan in years

Source: Manatee County Utilities Department


Lena Road Landfill

Hurricane Irma Produced


456,000 CYD

Source: Manatee County Utilities Department


County Facilities
1950 - Present
Service Delivery Strategy:
• Headquarters: Admin Building
• Satellite Customer Service Centers
• Back Office/Yards

Are we where we need to be?


Are we most convenient for the
citizens?
Are we operating efficiently?

Source: Manatee County Government


Resident Population | By Decade: Up to 1970

Residential Centerpoint
Residential Units

Built 1961 to 1970

Built 1960 or Earlier

97,862
69,168
34,704

1940 1960 1980 2000


Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Intercensal Estimates
38
Resident Population |By Decade: 1971-1980

Residential Centerpoint
Residential Units

Built 1971 to 1980

Built 1970 or Earlier

148,445
97,862
69,168
34,704

1940 1960 1980 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Intercensal Estimates


39
Resident Population |By Decade: 1981-1990

Residential Centerpoint
Residential Units

Built 1981 to 1990

Built 1980 or Earlier

211,707
148,445
97,862
69,168
34,704

1940 1960 1980 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Intercensal Estimates 40


Resident Population | By Decade: 1991-2000

Residential Centerpoint
Residential Units

Built 1991 to 2000

Built 1990 or Earlier

264,002
211,707
148,445
97,862
69,168
34,704

1940 1960 1980 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Intercensal Estimates


41
Resident Population |By Decade: 2001-2010

Residential Centerpoint
Residential Units

Built 2001 to 2010

Built 2000 or Earlier

322,833
264,002
211,707
148,445
97,862
69,168
34,704

1940 1960 1980 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Intercensal Estimates


42
Resident Population |By Decade: 2011-2017

Residential Centerpoint
Residential Units

Built 2011 to 2017

Built 2010 or Earlier

322,833
264,002
211,707
375,888 (2017)
148,445
97,862
69,168
34,704

1940 1960 1980 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Intercensal Estimates


43
Resident Population |By Decade: 2038?

Residential Centerpoint

Population Projections
600,000
526,800 550,800
500,400
500,000 469,500
434,700
394,300
400,000

300,000

200,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and
100,000 Intercensal Estimates & UF BEBR 2018 Population
Estimates
0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 44
Quality of life

Quality of life actually begins at home - it's


in your street, around your community.
- Charles Kennedy
Braden River
1998 Libraries

Palmetto
South Manatee

Rocky Bluff
Rocky Bluff
2018

Braden River
South Manatee
Downtown
Palmetto

Island
2018 835,000
Visits

6 items/min.
millions
Checked Out

$7,040,600
Saved by residents
Librarian of the Year (2017) - Ava Ehde
Friends, Foundation & Board Award (2017)
Library of the Year (2016)
Betty Davis Miller Youth Services Award (2016)
Lifetime Achievement Award- Kevin Beach (2016)
Outstanding Friends Member - Doris Pope (2016)
Keep Manatee Beautiful Recycling Award (2015)
Libraries Change People's Lives Award (2015)
Library Innovation Award (2013)
Betty Davis Miller Youth Services Award (2013)

Library Accomplishments
2038

New facilities from


half-cent sales tax

Aging population

Growing Hispanic
population

Young families

Increased focus on
e-resources and
technology

Private sector
inspiration
2038
Funding & Concerns
Staffing Levels
Square Footage Per Capita

Value of
Public Libraries In
Florida
$1 = $10.18
roi.info.florida.gov

$17.36/capita
(Manatee County)
vs
$26.35/capita
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Library and Information Services
(Average FL Library) Public Library Statistics & Ranked Data Tables 2015/2015
1997 Parks & Natural Resources
• Beach re-nourishment & artificial reefs
• Emerson & Duette Preserves - 1,000 visits/year
• No Rye, Robinson, Riverview Pointe Preserves
• GT Bray had no trees
• 38 local parks
• 1 district park
• 3 regional parks
• Last master plan drafted in 1975
2018
70 Parks
28,000 Acres
68 Miles of Trails
56,000 acres
under conservation

2.6 miles of coastline

500,000 visitors/year to
Robinson & Emerson
Preserves
2018 Accomplishments

planmanateeparks.com
2038 Future Recreation
• Comprehensive Master Plan for Parks, Recreation, and
Open Space details plans for parks, pools, greenways,
trails, playgrounds, & more
• New parks/pools
• East County, Hidden Harbor, Lincoln Park
• John Marble renovation
• Improve athletics fields
• Shade
• Air-conditioning
• Environmental horticulture
Funding & Concerns
• By 2038, we will have spent $100 million to
purchase new lands & improve existing parks &
natural resources
• $64m sales tax
• $38m impact fees
• Fewer staff & more residents per acre than
surrounding counties
• More conservation land needed

Percent of Open Space


Manatee Sarasota Hillsborough Pasco Lee State of
County County County County County Florida
12.5% 52% 16.8% 23.4% 19.9% 30%
Looking to the future

“What is a legacy? It’s planting seeds in


a garden you never get to see.”

- Hamilton, The Musical


County Service Delivery

Doing more with less

How is the nature of our work going


to change in the next 20 years?

What do we need to start


planning for now?
The Takeaway
Economy
Top employment fields are shifting from
manufacturing based to service centered.

The economy is constantly changing with a slower


than usual recovery from the last recession

Economic predictions are next to impossible


especially for as far away as 2037
The Takeaway
Infrastructure
Changes in transportation/mobility (introduction of
driverless cars, ride sharing services, new fuel
sources)

New methods will be needed to curve use of our


utilities and adapt to the growing population.
The Takeaway
Quality of Life
Libraries and Parks are busier than ever.

Both services are focusing on creativity and


innovation.

Trying to maintain standards with less than average


funding.
Looking to the Future

Will any of our How will new How will economic


plans change who technologies affect forces change trends
we attract? workforce living? of home ownership?
Planning for the Future
What are the top 5 things you think our community should do to
prepare:

Economy & Transportation & Housing Quality of Life


Jobs Mobility for 2038? Services
for 2038? for 2038? for 2038?

www.mymanatee.org/backtothefuture

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