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disease surveillance
Robert Allard MDCM MSc FRCPC
October 2004
Infectious disease
surveillance designs
Traditional disease notification
Outbreak investigation
Cluster investigation
Enhanced surveillance
Sentinel surveillance
Emerging infectious diseases
diagnosis-based surveillance
syndromic surveillance
Molecular biology and surveillance
Definition
“Surveillance, when applied to a disease, means
the continued watchfulness over the distribution and trends
of incidence
through the systematic collection, consolidation and
evaluation of morbidity and mortality reports and other
relevant data.
Intrinsic in the concept is the regular dissemination of the
basic data and interpretation to all who have contributed
and to all others who need to know.
The concept, however, does not encompass direct
responsibility for control activities.”
A.D. Langmuir, 1963
COMMUNICABLE DISEASE
SURVEILLANCE or RESEARCH?
Ongoing Time-limited
Generates hypotheses Tests hypotheses
Incomplete data on Complete data on sample
population
Simpler analysis More complex analysis
Rapid dissemination of Slower dissemination of
results results
Results not necessarily Aims at generalizability
generalizable
Triggers intervention Looser link to intervention
Traditional disease notification
Legal framework
List of reportable (or notifiable) conditions
Verification and analysis
Investigation
Public health intervention
Dissemination of results
Evaluation and updating
Legal framework
Required for
transmission of confidential information
investigation
intervention
Varies between jurisdictions
Québec specifics:
no more anonymously reportable conditions
HIV-AIDS is “provincially reportable”
duty to “signal” non-reportable conditions
distinction between “surveillance” and “vigie”
surveillance ethics committee
DISEASE SELECTION CRITERIA
Incidence
Morbidity
Mortality / severity / lethality
Communicability / potential for outbreaks
Preventability
Changing pattern in previous 5 years
Socioeconomic burden
Public health response necessary
Public perception of risk
International and other sector consideration
Rank (Priority for Canadian government, first 12 of 43)
1988 1998
1 Measles HIV
2 Tuberculosis AIDS
3 AIDS Laboratory confirmed influenza
4 Hepatitis B Tuberculosis
5 Pertussis Measles
6 Salmonellosis Rabies
7 Rubella Pertussis
8 H. influenzae Invasive meningococcal disease
invasive disease
9 Diphtheria Hepatitis C
10 Chickenpox Botulism
11 Meningococcal Poliomyelitis
infection
12 Gonococcal Creutzfeld-Jacob Disease
infection
VALIDITY OF REPORTS
(False positives)
Surveillance definitions
May be different from clinical definitions
Laboratory confirmation
The problem of nearly eliminated diseases
Most positives are false positives
• Poor clinical diagnostic accuracy
• Importance of eliminating alternate Dx
Only confirmed cases enter statistics
COMPLETENESS OF REPORTING
(False negatives)
Varies by
Type of reporting (active, passive)
Source of reports
Disease
Need not be high, provided it is stable
More important if intervention is possible
Stages in the reporting of
shigellosis (CDC, ca. 1970)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inf Symp Cons Cult Pos Report Inv Neg
ROUTINE INVESTIGATION
OF REPORTED CASES
MD, patient and/or relative are interviewed
Not all cases can be investigated
Intervention possible
Transmissibility is high
Case is unusual
Outbreak is suspected
ANALYSIS OF
SURVEILLANCE DATA
Shigellose
Cluster:
(Knox, 1989)
WHY THE INTEREST
IN CLUSTERING?
Cases are effects.
If effects are clustered, their causes could
also be.
Or they could be in fact the same cause.
A common cause may be easier to
identify (of all exposures, it is the one that cases share)
remove or control.
TEMPORAL CLUSTERING
Based on time-series (of numbers of notified cases)
Time unit:
Week
Month (period)
Favourite statistical methods:
ARIMA or Box-Jenkins modelling
“Figure 1” method
Box-Jenkins modelling:
the time series and the forecasts
SPATIAL CLUSTERING
Less useful for surveillance in urban
compared to rural environments
Very many methods exist
Most require more or less unrealistic
assumptions
Most promising: SaTScan (see satscan.org)
Reported dead corvid sightings
WNV-INFECTED CORVIDS (red)
SMOOTHED MAP
OF SAME INFECTED CORVIDS
(Thanks to Christian Back)
HUMAN WNV CASES
(a few days later, Sept. 19, 2003)
SaTScan v4.0.3
_____________________________
SUMMARY OF DATA
Exclusion Criteria
A suspect or probable case should be excluded if an
alternate diagnosis can fully explain their illness.
SARS EPIDEMIC CURVE, CANADA, 2003
EID: syndromic surveillance
Observes the occurrence not of diagnosed
disease but of a pre-defined syndrome
Syndrome = “a pattern of symptoms
indicative of some disease”, usually
unidentified
The syndrome may be associated with one or
more disease entities
A diagnosis is sought (for surveillance) only
when a cluster of the syndrome is detected
EXAMPLES OF SYNDROMES
FOR SURVEILLANCE
Fever + upper or lower respiratory signs or
symptoms (plague,anthrax, ricin, staph. toxin or …)
Fever + rash (smallpox or …)
Fever + hemorrhages (Ebola, Marburg or …)
Fever + GI symptoms (salmonellosis or …)
Cranial-nerve impairment (botulism or …)
Fever + unexplained death
OPERATIONALIZATION OF
SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE
Most promising general source of information:
emergency department (or other primary care
source) presenting complaints (PC)
Information is
computerized on site
transmitted periodically to central server
scanned to extract PCs and other information
PCs are synthesized into syndromes if possible
Clusters of syndromes are tested for
Significant clusters flagged for further investigation
Simple temporal analysis of HMO data
(Thanks to Richard Platt)
Simple spatial analysis of HMO data
(Thanks to Richard Platt)
MOLECULAR BIOLOGY
AND SURVEILLANCE
Based on ability to distinguish different
strains of same agent, based on its nucleic
acid (genotype)
Different methods, short of sequencing, can
be used
Must be able to detect mutations that are
Frequent enough to have produced many different
strains over the years
Rare enough not to occur during an outbreak
DNA electrophoretic pattern
Uses of DNA “fingerprinting”
Prove that cases in an outbreak are related
Prove that suspected vehicle is the true common
source
Identify outbreaks missed by traditional methods
TB in chronic care hospitals for old people
Help select cases and controls in a case-case study
Cases: cases caused by the outbreak strain
Controls: cases caused by non outbreak strains
Goal: identify mode(s) of transmission specific to this
outbreak
Example of case-case study
Listeriosis outbreak (meningitis, sepsis, especially in
pregnant women) in France
Positive L. monocytogenes culture from normally
sterile site between 99/11/12 and 00/02/28
Cases: 29 strain-associated cases
Excluded were:
• 2 deaths
• 1 case whose status (as case) was known before interview
Controls: 32 non strain-associated cases
Results:
Adjusted ORs and 95% CI
• Jellied pork tongue: 75.5 (4.7 - 1216)
• Pâté de campagne: 8.9 (1.7 - 46.1)
• Cooked ham: 7.1 (0.7 - 71.8)
All cases had eaten at least one of the above
Recommendation against eating the pork tongue
made on Feb. 22, 2000
Outbreak strain in foodstuffs
Identified in some (rillettes: OR = 1.1 [0.3 – 3.8])
Not identified in jellied pork tongue
• No recall, as specific brand could not be incriminated
CONCLUSION:
research vs surveillance
Collaboration between the research and
public health communities is increasing
Research and surveillance methodologies
are converging
The objectives of each remain different:
is one trying to answer questions
of local interest, as rapidly as possible
of general interest, as validly as possible