ANR/VMC/MISEEVA

A trans-disciplinary approach to assess vulnerability of the coastal

system to marine inundation
C. Vinchon, N.Baron Yelles, E.Berthellier, C. Hérivaux,
S.Lecacheux, C. Meur Ferec, R. Pedreros, H.Rey-Valette, B. Rulleau

23rd of september2010_LONDON Littoral 2010

Institut de

i3m Mathématiques
et de Modélisation
de Montpellier
 Motivation for developping MISEEVA project
Ocean thermic
Greenhouse gas emissions
dilataion Sea level rise

Marine inundation hazards

Warming up Ice melting Storm regime

Modifications(?)
Photo DRE-LR.
Argelès-17 décembre 1997

©BNS

Damages to population and assets

Atmospheric and oceanic Palavas nov 1982.
circulation
changes

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 Objective of the project « Marine Inondation and
Social, Economic and Environmental Vulnerability
Assessment »

> Assessment, in a the context of future

global changing, of the vulnerability of the
coastal system
• Global change : Climate and Society
• Vulnerability of a system = agregation of specific
vulnerabilities
• Transdisciplinary approach
– Site choice, preliminary assumptions, data crossing, deliverables

> T0= 2010, T1= 2030, T2 = 2100

> Down and up spatial scaling i3m

Institut de
Mathématiques
et de Modélisation
de Montpellier

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Regional and local sites

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Main Components of the approach

Assumptions of
future

Hazard assessment Assets assessment Adaptation capacity

assessment

Vulnerability of the coastal system to marine inundation

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Assumptions
> Transdisciplinary approach
• Propositions discussed and validated by the project
team

> 3 sets of assumptions

• Climate scenarios (preliminary)
• Demographic and economic scenarios (from existing
documents)
• Adaptation strategies (by iteration)

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 Climatic scenarios
T0, T1, T2
> Sea Level Rise
• T2=2100
– a)Mean IPCC 2007 hypothesis :0.35m
– b) Rahmstorf 2007 1m
• T1 = 2030 (within normal climate variation)
Interpolation of IPCC 2007 : 0.07 m

> Storm surges :

• No increase of storm intensity and frequency in western
mediterranean sea (Deque et al, 2004)
• Choice of reference storm (Nov 1982)

Gruissan 1982 (©DREAL LR)

1960-2000

2070-2099
Déqué et al. 2004
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 Economic and
demographic hypotheses
T1 et T2

> T0=2010 Evolution de la population permanente sur la zone d'étude

Données INSEE 1968 - 2006
• Positive GDP, increasing demography (migrations), ageing 1 800 000

population, paupersiation and precarity Evolution observée 1 685 837

• Tourism (non permanent population)

1 600 000
Extrapolation linéaire

• Contrasted land use

Extrapolation géométrique
1 400 000
– Seafront : urbanisation, tourism, commerrce
– Backshore and lagoons : fisheries, agriculture/urbanisation, 1 200 000
biodiversity
> T1= 2030 1 000 000
955 367

• Continuation of present trends (DATAR 2004, SRADT 2009) 800 000

– (increasing demography, toursim), stability of other field
> T2 = 2100 600 000
615 726

•
568 549
No possible extrapolation of trends 435 926

• 2 scenarios
400 000

– -No change/2010
–
200 000
-« trend »scenario : increase of population, 222 519

– deseasonalisation of tourism -
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

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Illustration of deseasonalisation and
linear increase of population

Estimation de la population mensuelle dans les 58 communes en 2006

Estimation de la population mensuelle dans les 58 communes en 2100 (S0)
1 800 000
1 800 000 Population saisonnière (campings + hôtels + rés 2aires)
Population permanente
Population saisonnière (campings + hôtels + rés 2aires)
1 600 000
Population permanente
1 600 000

1 400 000
1 400 000
Population moyenne mensuelle (hab)
Population moyenne mensuelle (hab)

1 200 000
1 200 000

1 000 000
1 000 000

800 000
800 000

600 000
600 000

400 000
400 000

200 000
200 000

-
- JAN FEV MARS AVR MAI JUIN JUIL AOUT SEPT OCT NOV DEC
JAN FEV MARS AVR MAI JUIN JUIL AOUT SEPT OCT NOV DEC

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 Adaptation perspectives
T1 et T2

> Transdisciplinary approach,made in year 2.5, with

results on
• Hazard assessment,
• Social economical and environmental assessment ,
• Adaptation capacity approach.
> Iteration of the perspectives
• with improving results,
• with stakeholders advices.
> Perspectives (« possible futures »)
• 2030 : 0.07m SLR, increasing demography and tourism activity :
increase vulnerability of urbanised zones
• 2100 : Different adaptations schemes
– Hold the line
– Do nothing
– Retreat
Composite adaptation

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Hazard assessment

« permanent »
marine inundation
Climatic scenarios
SLR and storms Hazard
T0, T1, T2 modeling
at T0, T1 and T2 Reccurent marine
inundation

Exceptional marine
inundation

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Marine inundation definition
Surverse?

RUN-UP
Swash SET-UP
RUN-DOWN
SET-DOWN
Atmospheric surge (wind and pressure)
Tide range
Instantaneous level / hydrographic 0)
Hydrographic 0 (lower tide level)

Inundation zone

Waves
Wind (Height, Wave surge (set-
(speed, SWAN
Period, up)
direction) direction)

Swash generated Run-up

Wind and atm. MARS Atmospheric
by surf (Max level
pressure surge
reached by
MARSOUIN
SURF-Wb

swash)
Tide parameters MARS Tide level

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 Modeling and evaluating inundation

1
> 2 scales
• Regional (1) : Languedoc Roussillon
– Low resolution topo-bathymetric data (DTM IGN 50m, SHOM sounding lines), and lLow
resolution models for wind and wave propagation
– empicical formula for set up on shore (Stockdon et al 2006)

• Local : Villeneuve lès Maguelone, Latte, Pérols, Palavas-les-flots and Mauguio Carnon
– (2) same resolution of model , propoagation on LIDAR and MNT IGN
– (3) Detailed approach on shoreface SURF Wb model on LIDAR (2m xy /2cm z)

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Deliverable to socio-économists
Different return periods in 2100, with 1m SLR
Permanent (SLR, low tide), recurrent (SLR, high tide)
exceptional (SLR, high tide, storm set-up)

Uncertainties (DTM, models, scenarios,…)

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Detailed application ( Surf Wb) on the shore face

Palavas, Nov 1982©DREAL-LR

Institut de

Software : i3m Mathématiques

et de Modélisation
de Montpellier

Application Miseeva :

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Assets assessment

> Demographic, social, economic and

environemental assets

Inventory and
Valuation of exposed
assets at T0

Damage evaluation for specific

assets at T0

Socio-economic scenarios Damage evaluation for specific

T1 et T2 assets at T1 and T2

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 Exposed assets
20 000
Recurrent marine inundation

>
18 000
Dense population (ageing, pauperisation)
Inundated surfaces in ha (not considering lagoons)

Permanent marine inundation

16 000

14 000 > Urbanisation of lidos (dwelling, infrastructures,

12 000 road/power/sewage networks)
10 000
> Little agriculture on lidos (vineyard), more north
8 000
of lagoons(rice, arable land,salt marshes)-
6 000
Decreasing
>
4 000

2 000
Fisheries and shell (lagoons, sea)
- > Tourism, associated trades
• High temporary/ permanent residence ratio
Not considering SLR 2100 SLR of 35 cm 2100 SLR of 1m

• Beache use (merchant and non merchant)

> Little space for natural environment but high
biodiversity value in wetlands and lagoons
> 44% drinkable water from coastal aquifers

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Example : beaches
> Coastal squeeze on urban and semi urban beaches
> Rolling mobility on natural beaches
Urbaine
naturelles 628,17
953,9 33%
51%

semi
urbaine
301,722
> Partial or total inundation of beaches induces: 16%
• merchant loss (tourism, beaches trades)
• Damages and use of safety structures
• Loss in value of uses (leisure, heritage)
• Loss or damage of defences equipment (if no adaptation)
• Maintainance and/or restauration cost

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Adaptation capacity assessment

Public perception of coming risk *LONDON, littoral2010,

at T0
(*Meur Ferec et al) session 10, yesterday,16h45, 10

Evaluation of stakeholders Hazard assessment

response capacity to
the coming risk
at T0.

Adaptation perspectives
T1 et T2

Assets assessment

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 Perception of marine inundation risk
> Objective :Analysis of exposed population perception of risk
• Knowledge, sensitivity, attachment, moving capacity

> 2 surveys
• Residents and commerces (563 interviews) at the local site.
• Beaches users

> Profile
• Permanent residents(houses), secondary residents in flats.
• Sea view, childhood, climate and sea side attractivity

> Results of the residents/ shopkeepers survey

• Knowledge of the risk :
– non main risk, rely on scientists and municipalities
• Management :
– Collective defence
– consideration of soft management or retreat
• Memories of past event
– Little memories of events. Remembers damages to life networks
©DREAL LR-nov 1982/
• Seeing forward
– No foreseeing of changes in uses of the coastal zone at short term
– Belief in dwelling value , beliel of Public Power taking in charge; no belief in insurancies
– Foreseeing potential damages at long term

©DREAL LR-12/04/2003/

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Existing or planned adaptation tools
> National level
• 2006 Fight against CC
• 2011 National plan for adaptation in 2011 ; « no regret » adaptation

> PPR submersion

• No risk increases
• Rules : no development or limitation of dwellings
• Many dispensations

> Plan climat Languedoc-Roussillon (septembre 2009) 2030 et 2050.

• No focus on coastal zone

> SRADT
• Urbanisation of coastal zone

> ….

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 Adaptation perspectives
T0 = 2010

T1 = 2030

T2 = 2100
No foresight of
Same trends in demography, sociology and economy as

Confident
increase marine No planning of population P1.
inundation adaptation by policy

maintained
Insurance
DENIAL

policies
makers
Lag in impact of managelment policies

No confidence
from
No planning of population
P2.

insurancies
adaptation by policy
DO-NOTHING

No
makers
1990-2006

Forecasting of
increase P3. HOLD-THE
marine LINE.
inundation P4A : « Ideal »

depending on
management
management

Insurance
policies

policies
Planning of adaptation
P4 Composite
measures by policy
makers
adaptation
P4B :  « by default »
management

P5. RETREAT

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 Hazard assessment Assets assessment Adaptation capacity
assessment

Socio-economic scenarios Public perception of coming risk

Climatic scenarios T1 et T2 at T0
SLR and storms (*Meur Ferec et al)
T0, T1, T2

« permanent » Inventory and

Evalaution of stakeholders
marine inundation valuating exposed response capacity to the coming risk
SLR/CC assets at T0 at T0.
Hazard
modelisation
at T0, T1 and T2 Reccurent marine
inundation Damages evaluation for specific
SLR/ high tides assets at T0

Adaptation perspectivrs
Exceptional marine T1 et T2
inundation Damages evaluation for specific
SLR/tides/ storms assets at T1 and T2

Vulnerability of the coastal system to marine inundation

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Vulnerability of the coastal system to marine
inundation in a changing global context

> To be done
• Application of the different adaptation perspectives at T1 and
T2 , analysis of potential damages on different assets
• From specific to systemic vulnerability :
– Specific and systemic indicators
– Evolution indicators
• Hierachisation of vulnerability (maps)
> Tools for
• Knowledge of vulnerability
• Transdisciplinary approach
– Inducing adaptation of methodologies and iterations
• Picture of « possible » futur
• Reproductibility of the approach
• Down and up scaling (?)

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« Miss Eva » thanks you for your
attention….
The authors wish to thank the
MISEEVA team
Y. Balouin (BRGM), J.C. Charles
(LAMETA), E. Delvallée (BRGM), H.
Flanquart (MESHS), M. Garcin (BRGM),
A.P. Hellequin (MESHS) Y. Krien
(BRGM), L.Kuhfuss (LAMETA), G. Le
Cozannet (BRGM), L. Maton (BRGM),
F. Nathan (SOGREAH..), B Poisson
(BRGM), A..L.Agenais (BRGM), M.
Yates (BRGM),…
Thanks to
F. Marche (I3M) and P. Bonneton
(EPOC) for giving access to SURF Wb
C. Vanroye ( DREAL LR) for giving
access to data

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