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Stephen Cragg
Associate – SIAS Limited
Overview
Methodological approach
Key achievements
Limited Choice
• Employment, income, household composition,
household location
Active Choice
• Lifestyle (e.g. car, motorbike, cycle ownership)
Influences on travel
Where am I?
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Behaviour model
Logic based
If
this situation occurs
Then
do this
based on my vehicle
and my driving style
Driver behaviour
Condensed into just three decisions
• What lane?
~Mandatory and Discretionary
• What speed?
• What gap?
What lane?
Mandatory rangers
(i.e. need to be a lane or range of lanes for a
manoeuvre)
• When do I find out what lane(s) I should be in?
~Signposting
• If not in right lane(s), then ‘urgency’ to get in lane
increases as I get closer to hazard
What lane?
Discretionary suggesters
• Keep left
• Vehicle behind me
• Slow vehicle in front of me
• Congestion
• Avoidance (incident, bus)
• On-slip / ramp
What lane?
Lane weightings applied
• Seniority can be applied
Behind
Bus BUS
Left
Fast Slow
Car Car
Slow
What speed?
Acceleration suggesters – lowest value chosen
• Target speed • End speed
• Geometric • Stop
• Following • Yellow box
• Want lane change • Bus stop (for buses)
• Let in
• Undertaking
• Friction
• Overtake (opposite carriageway)
What speed?
Finally a set of vehicle specific modifiers
• Drag and inertia
• Gradient
~Modifies acceleration
~Modifies target speed (for GVs only)
What gap?
A Gap when driving is generally time-based
• Junctions
• Headway
• Minimum gap
~This is the closest distance I’ll get to the
vehicle in front of me.
Behaviour model
Logic based
If
this situation occurs
Then
do this
based on my vehicle
and my driving style
Driver characteristics
30
Aggression
•25This determines how I behave
20
Frequency
Awareness
15
Default
5 is Normal Distribution
• Apply
0 a spread
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Default Distribution
Distribution modification
30
Not all distributions are normal
•25Apply a skew
20
Frequency
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Skew Distribution
Vehicle characteristics
Top speed
• Physical rather than legal
Dimensions
• Length, width, height and mass
Overview
Methodological approach
Key achievements
Metrics change
• Journey Time can now be supplemented with
Journey Time Reliability
• Predictions of environmental impacts
– all improved
• Effect of incidents / roadworks
New answers
Key achievements
SPEED
• Richer data
• Multiple runs
Challenges
Language
• Micro and Small are NOT synonyms
Education
• Different mindset
Challenges
Combining traffic microsimulation with other driver
choices. For example:
• When to travel?
• How to travel (e.g. should I cycle or drive)?
• Where to travel?