Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 29

Modelling individual vehicle

and driver behaviours

Stephen Cragg
Associate – SIAS Limited
Overview
Methodological approach

Key achievements

Current and future challenges


Influences on personal travel
Fixed
• Age, sex, health

Limited Choice
• Employment, income, household composition,
household location

Active Choice
• Lifestyle (e.g. car, motorbike, cycle ownership)
Influences on travel
Where am I?

Where am I going? (should I go?)

How often? (or not at all?)

How will I get there? (what’s available?)

When can / should I go?

What route to take?


Life, the Universe
Transport Models Trafficand
Driver & Vehicle
Models Behaviour
Everything
A model

Ui  xi 1  ti 
ai 1ai xi ai s m 1 ai
m
   ai
TT i
 xi 
U i  xi 1  
sm sm ai

1 ai  sm 
 ai s m 
U i  ai sm   ai sm  i 1  ai 
1 ai
m ai
1   a

 sm 
TT SR i 
xi ai sm

ss ss
1 ai
 ai ss 
U i  ai ss   ai ss  1  ai 
1 ai
LR ai
1   ai

 ss  1 ai
 ai s m 
U i  ai sm  1  
SR ai
xi ai ss
TT LR i    ai  ss 
ss ss
xi  ai sm
Behaviour model
Logic based

If
this situation occurs

Then
do this
based on my vehicle
and my driving style
Driver behaviour
Condensed into just three decisions
• What lane?
~Mandatory and Discretionary

• What speed?

• What gap?
What lane?
Mandatory rangers
(i.e. need to be a lane or range of lanes for a
manoeuvre)
• When do I find out what lane(s) I should be in?
~Signposting
• If not in right lane(s), then ‘urgency’ to get in lane
increases as I get closer to hazard
What lane?
Discretionary suggesters
• Keep left
• Vehicle behind me
• Slow vehicle in front of me
• Congestion
• Avoidance (incident, bus)
• On-slip / ramp
What lane?
Lane weightings applied
• Seniority can be applied

Behind
Bus BUS
Left

Fast Slow
Car Car
Slow
What speed?
Acceleration suggesters – lowest value chosen
• Target speed • End speed
• Geometric • Stop
• Following • Yellow box
• Want lane change • Bus stop (for buses)
• Let in
• Undertaking
• Friction
• Overtake (opposite carriageway)
What speed?
Finally a set of vehicle specific modifiers
• Drag and inertia
• Gradient
~Modifies acceleration
~Modifies target speed (for GVs only)
What gap?
A Gap when driving is generally time-based
• Junctions
• Headway
• Minimum gap
~This is the closest distance I’ll get to the
vehicle in front of me.
Behaviour model
Logic based

If
this situation occurs

Then
do this
based on my vehicle
and my driving style
Driver characteristics
30
Aggression
•25This determines how I behave
20
Frequency

Awareness
15

• This determines how I respond to others


10

Default
5 is Normal Distribution
• Apply
0 a spread
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Default Distribution
Distribution modification
30
Not all distributions are normal
•25Apply a skew
20
Frequency

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Skew Distribution
Vehicle characteristics
Top speed
• Physical rather than legal

Bounds of acceleration / braking

Dimensions
• Length, width, height and mass
Overview
Methodological approach

Key achievements

Current and future challenges


Industry Acceptance
First Commercial Application in 1995
• First in the world (to the best of our knowledge)

Many similar products now on the market


Improved understanding

Not all answers are good – That’s Good!


Confidence in design

Our work is accessible to non-modellers


New answers

Metrics change
• Journey Time can now be supplemented with
Journey Time Reliability
• Predictions of environmental impacts
– all improved
• Effect of incidents / roadworks
New answers

The world is changing


• Managed highways
• Selective vehicle priority
• Driver education
• Ageing Population
Overview
Methodological approach

Key achievements

Current and future challenges


Challenges
DATA, DATA, DATA
• Difficult to capture individual behaviour
• Difficult = Expensive!

SPEED
• Richer data
• Multiple runs
Challenges
Language
• Micro and Small are NOT synonyms

Education
• Different mindset
Challenges
Combining traffic microsimulation with other driver
choices. For example:
• When to travel?
• How to travel (e.g. should I cycle or drive)?
• Where to travel?

Вам также может понравиться