Risk, Reliability and Safety

 By: Hafiz M. Usman Khalid

 Project Advisor: Mr. Shehzad Jamil

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Risk, Reliability, and Safety
 Risk is the potential for realizing some
unwanted and negative consequences of an
event.
 Risk (Consequences/unit time) = frequency
(events/unit time) X magnitude
(consequence/event)
 Examples: Failure of large technological
systems, Discrete small-scale accidents etc.
 Engineering risk: is a link between
Technological Growth and Social Values

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Risk, Reliability, and Safety
 Reliability is the probability that a system,
device or component will successfully perform
for;
 A given range of operating condition
 A specific environment condition
 A prescribed economic survival time
 It is one of the essential elements of modern
engineering design

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Reliability Theory
It is basically a study of Causes, Distribution and
Failure.

Basic Equation for Reliability

R (t) = Reliability with respect to time
F(t) = Unreliability (probability of failure) in the
same time t.
As failure and non-failure are mutually exclusive
events so;
R(t) + F(t) = 1

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Reliability Theory

N0= Number of components put into test

Ns(t) = Number of components survived at time t
Nf(t) = Number of components failed between
time 0 and t

Ns(t) + Nf(t) = N0

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Reliability Theory

From definition of Reliability

N s t  N f t 
R(t )   1
N0 N0

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Reliability Theory

Hazardous rate or Instantaneous failure

rate is the number of failure per unit
time per number of items exposed for
the same time.

dN f (t ) 1
h(t ) 
dt N s t

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Reliability Theory
In more statistical terms Hazard Rate h(t) is defined as
the probability that a given test item will fail
between t1 and t1+dt1, when it has already
survived to t1.

f (t ) f (t )
h(t )    P(t1  t  t1  dt1 t  t1
1  F (t ) R(t )
Solving in terms of Hazard or failure Rate

 t 
R (t )  exp   h(t )dt 
 0 
Hazard or Failure rate for components in the range of 10-5 to
10-7 per hour exhibits a good commercial level of
reliability.
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Definitions
Mean Life: The average life of the No components put
on test or in service, measured over the entire life.
Mean Time to Failure (MTTF): It is the average time
that a non-repairable system, device or component
will operate before experiencing a failure. e.g. light
bulbs, transistors, bearings etc. Therefore when a
part fails in a non-repairable system, system fails.
Therefore system reliability is a function of the first
part failure.
MTTF = R(t) dt

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Definitions

Mean Time between Failure T : It is the time

between two successive component failures.
MTBF is similar to MTTF but it is applied for
components or system that are repairable. For a
system of m components, all of different ages,
each with its own MTTF and each which is
immediately replaced on failure.

m
1 1

MTBF j 1 MTTF j

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Definitions
Table shows some rough ideas of average failure rates
for different components:

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Constant or Exponential
Failure Rate
 This is the most simple and widely used
distribution in reliability engineering.
 For special case of constant failure rate, h(t) = 

 t 
R(t )  exp   h(t )dt   e t
 0 
Where:

number of failures

time in which all the components will fail

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Constant or Exponential
Failure Rate
 The reciprocal of  is MTBF, i,e

1
T

so

t T
R (t )  e
If a component is operated for a period equal to
MTBF, the probability of survival is 1/e = 0.37

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Example:

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Variable Failure Rate

 Failures are not constant always e.g. for

Relays and thermionic devices and other
mechanical systems
 Failure rate is a function of time.
Therefore simple exponential relation for
reliability does not apply
 Weibull Function (m) is used to consider
this type of failure:

m 1
m  t  t0 
h(t )   
  
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System Reliability

 Most Mechanical and Electronic Systems

comprise a collection of components
 Overall reliability of system depends
upon performance of each and every
component.
 Reliability of the system can be defined in
terms of reliability of elements of the
system

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Series System Reliability

 If components are so arranged that the

failure of any component causes the
system failure, then it is said to be in
series
 System reliability is the product of
component reliabilities
Rsystem = RA x RB x ………….x Rn
 If reliabilities of components are
considered identical then
Rsystem = Rn

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Series System Reliability

 System reliability quickly decreases with

an increase in number of components
 For example if there are 20 components
with R = 0.99, the system reliability is
0.9920=0.818
 For a system with Constant Failure Rate

Rsystem  RA  RB  eAt  eBt  e(A B )t

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 Parallel System Reliability
 If components are so arranged that the
failure of all component causes the system
failure, then it is said to be in parallel
 System reliability is the product of
component reliabilities

Rsystem  1  (1  RA )(1  RB ).......(1  Rn )

 For a constant failure rate:

Rsystem  1  (1  RA )(1  RB )  1  (1  eAt )(1  eBt )

 e   At  e   B t  e  (  A   B ) t
 Since this is not in the form e-constant the
parallel system has Variable Failure Rate
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 Parallel System Reliability
 A system in which the components are
arranged to give parallel reliability is said to
be redundant.

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 n-out-of-m System
Reliability
 Consider a four-engine aircraft that can fly
on 2 engines.
 Will lost stability if one engine is operated.
 The Reliability of such a system is given by:
m
 m i
Rn / m    R (1  R) mi
i n  i 

Where
 m m!
  
 i  i!(m  i )!

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Example

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Example

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Maintenance and Repair
 Overall system reliability is improved if
repairable component is replaced with
redundant component
 Preventive maintenance is aimed at
minimizing system failure
 Routine maintenance does not have
major positive effect on reliability
(although absence of Routine
maintenance can cause premature
system failure)
 Repair of failed component in a Series
System will not improve reliability, since
the system is not operating
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Maintenance and Repair
Decreasing repair time improve maintainability
and availability

MTBF = MTTF + MTTR

Where
MTBF = Mean time between failure
MTTF = Mean time to failure
MTTR= Mean time to repair

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Maintenance and Repair
If repair rate is r = 1/MTTR then for an active
redundant system:

3  r
MTTF 
22

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Example:
If r = 6 h-1 and  = 10-5. Calculate:

1. MTTF with repair

2. MTTF without repair

Answer: 3 x 1010, 1.5 x 105 (hours)

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Maintainability…
 Probability that a component or system
that has failed will be restored to service
within a given time
 MTTF and failure rate measures reliability
 MTTR and repair rate measures
maintainability
 It is important to predict maintainability
during design of an engineering system

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Maintainability…
Maintainability includes:
 Time required to determine failure
occurred and diagnose necessary repair
action
 Time to carry out necessary repair action
 Time required to checkout the unit to
establish that the repair has been
effective and the system is operational

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Maintainability…
 Maintainability can be calculated as:

M (t )  1  e rt  1  et MTTR

Where
M(t) = Maintainability
r = repair rate
t = permissible time for repair

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Availability…
 Concept which combines both reliability
and maintainability
 It is the proportion of time the system is
working “on line” to the total time, when
that is determined over a longer period of
time

MTTF
Availabili ty 
MTTF  MTTR

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Design for reliability…
 The approach can fall between two broad
extremes:
1. Fail-safe approach
2. Absolute-worst case approach

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Fail-safe approach…
 To identify weak spot in the system or
component
 To provide someway to monitor that
weakness
 When a weak link fails it is replaced (like a
fuse in a house hold electrical system)

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Absolute-worst case
approach…
 Use in the worst combination of
parameters
 Design is based on the premise that all can
go wrong at the same time
 Results in Conservative Approach and
leads to Over design

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Causes of Unreliability…
 Design mistakes: Exclusion of important
operating factors, incomplete information,
erroneous calculations, poor material selection
 Manufacturing defects: Poor surface finish,
cracks/defects during heat treatment, lack of
supervision, instructions, poor working
environment, inadequate training
 Maintenance: Lack of maintenance after
operation.
 Exceeding design limits: limit of
temperature, speed, load etc
 Environmental factors: Non-consideration of
rain, humidity, ice, temperature etc

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Minimizing Failure…
 Probability of failure for structural
applications Pf < 10-6
 Probability of failure for unstressed
applications 10-4 < Pf < 10-3

Read this article

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Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)…
 It is a team-based methodology for
identifying potential problems with new or
existing designs
 Most frequently used hazard-analysis tool
 Useful in identifying critical areas of
design that need redundant components
and improved reliability

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Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)…
Objective of FMEA:
 Prediction of possible failures
 Prediction of effect of failure on the
function of the system
 Establishment of steps that might be taken
to prevent the failure

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Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)…
Factors involved in developing a FMEA:
 The severity of failure (Mostly used is
rating 9 & 10) as shown here…
 Probability of Occurrence the failure is
given in table shown here…
 Rating for failure detection (before the
product is used by the customer). This
Table give the scale for detection.

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Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)…

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Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)…

Back

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Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)…

Back

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Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)…
The practice is to combine the three factors
into a risk priority number (RPN) as:
RPN = (severity of failure) x ( occurrence of
failure) x (detection rating)
Value of RPN can vary between 1000 (the
greatest risk) & 1 ( the minimum risk)

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Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)…
Example:

Discussion

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