Leadership 2030: Megatrends and

Their Implications
 Megatrends

“History can only be

recounted in hindsight.
That means
futurologists have their
work cut out for them: “Small haphazard
They can merely events can change the
extrapolate from trends course of history.”
that are already visible.”
Source: van Santen, Rutger, Djan Khoe, and Bram Vermeer, 2030 : Technology That Will Change the
World, New York: Oxford University Press, 2010, 9 – 12.
 Wildcards

Source: ATKearney, Global mega trends, http://www.challengefuture.org/static/upload/uploads/Global_mega_trends.pdf, December,

2012, 14. Accessed April 16, 2014.

Slide 3
Possible Plausible Probable Preferred
Four Types
of Futures

Those that Those that Those which What we

might could are want to
happen – no happen considered happen
matter how according to “likely to
far fetched our current happen”,
knowledge and stem in
part from
the
continuance
of current
trends

Source: Voros, Joseph, Ph.D., A Primer on Futures Studies, Foresight and the Use of Scenarios, http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-
content/uploads/2010/10/A_Primer_on_Futures_Studies.pdf, 2001, 2. Accessed September 4, 2014.

Slide 4
 What Defines Time

a Megatrend? Observable over decades, megatrends

can be projected with a high degree of
probability at least 15 years into the
future

Reach
Megatrends affect all regions and
Megatrend stakeholders, including
governments, individuals, and
businesses

A long-term, transformational process Impact

with global reach, broad scope, and a Megatrends fundamentally
fundamental and dramatic impact transform policies, society, and
the economy
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to
Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management
Association, 2014, 6.

Slide 5
 Megatrend Life Cycle

Industry
standards
are
established
& influenced
Legal
frameworks
strive to
catch up Becomes ubiquitous,
the “new normal”

Source: Alcatel-Lucent, Megatrends – A Wave of Change Impacting the Future, http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/public_files/megatrends/Megatrends_EN_MarketAnalysis.pdf, 2012, 7.
Accessed August 19, 2014.

Slide 6
 Globalization 2.0 The Digital Era
Leadership
The Environmental
Demographic Change
2030: The Six
Megatrends
Crisis

Individualism and Technological

Value Pluralism Convergence

Changing Working
Patterns

Corporate
Environment

Organization

Personal and Team

Level
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the
Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 10 -11.

Slide 7
 Megatrend #1: Globalization 2.0

1. Globalization 2.0 is fundamentally different

from Globalization 1.0
2. Traditional trade patterns will be disrupted
3. Beware of “glocalization”
4. The burden of complexity will intensify
5. Contextual awareness will be critical

Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management
Association, 2014, 13 -14.

Slide 8
 World
Economic
Center of
Gravity Shift

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey & Company,
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class, June 2012, 17. Accessed August 19, 2014.

Slide 9
Most Defining Characteristics
of Complexity in Projects

“The exponential
increase in ambiguity
surrounding
stakeholder
expectations, especially
regarding the certainty
of program outcomes
and schedules”

Source: Project Management Institute, Inc., PMI’s Pulse of the Profession In-Depth Report: Navigating Complexity, 2013, 4.

Slide 10
 Characterizing
Complexity

Is it complex?

Or is it merely
complicated?

Source: Project Management Institute, Inc., PMI’s Pulse of the Profession In-Depth Report: Navigating Complexity, 2013, 3.

Slide 11
 Glocalization – What is it?

Local
Global Brand Glocalization
Innovation

Sociologist Roland Robertson suggests replacing the concept of

globalization with the concept of "glocalization“

Slide 12
Correlation in Industrial Profitability
Argentina
Austria
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
Chile Positive correlation
China Significant at the 10% level
Colombia
Denmark Insignificant correlation
Finland
France Negative correlation
Germany Significant at the 10% level
Greece
Hong Kong
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Pakistan
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
S. Korea
Singapore
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
U. Kingdom
United States
Venezuela

Source: Khanna, Tarun, “Contextual Intelligence,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 92, No. 9 (September 2014): 63.
Slide 13
 Megatrend #1: Globalization 2.0

1. Shift from executing projects to enterprise-

wide project management – further gains in
the recognition of, and demand for, project
management as a profession with an
increasing emphasis on providing business
value
2. Project complexity will continue to intensify
– see technological convergence
3. Contextual intelligence will become a key
factor in the success of projects
Slide 14
Megatrend #2: The Environmental Crisis

1. Climate change is real and almost

irreversible
2. Critical resources are being depleted
3. The implications are potentially
catastrophic
4. Carbon footprint moves from corporate
social responsibility to the bottom line
5. Transformational thinking and operations
will be necessary
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the
Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 33 -34.

Slide 15
 Sustainability

“Sustainability has gone from a nice to do to

a must do. It is about building a successful
business for the long term. Sustainability will
be a decisive factor in terms of which
businesses will be here in 20 or 30 years
time. It is the future of business.”
Steve Howard
Chief Sustainability Officer
IKEA Group
Source: Kanani, Rahim, “Why IKEA Thinks This Mega-Trend Will Define The Next 30 Years Of Business,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2014/02/07/why-
ikea-thinks-this-mega-trend-will-define-the-next-30-years-of-business/, February 7, 2014. Accessed August 19, 2014.

Slide 16
Sustainability Gap in Project Management

Sustainable
Practice & Development
Research Aspects
Gap
Corporate
Sustainability Projects
Strategy

Projects are linked

with strategy through
Overall
their value creation Corporate
process Strategy

Source: Keeys, Lynn A., Martina Huemann, and Rodney Turner. “Integrating Project Strategy for Sustainable Development: A Conceptual Framework,” in Sustainability
Integration for Effective Project Management, edited by Gilbert Silvius and Jennifer Tharp, 22. Hershey, PA: Business Science Reference, 2013.

Slide 17
 Megatrend #3: Individualism and Value
Pluralism

1. Mounting affluence will drive growing

individualism in emerging societies
2. People’s values will increasingly pluralize
3. Niche opportunities will emerge in local
markets
4. Organizations’ internal and external
environments will fracture
5. Greater flexibility and sensitivity will be
essential
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management
Association, 2014, 57 -58.

Slide 18
 The Evidence of Change

Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments,
http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
18. Accessed August 19, 2014.

Slide 19
 Middle Class
Growth to
2030

A virtual middle class is

rising:
• Though still very poor,
they are increasingly
demanding rights,
services, and good
governance

Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments,
http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
21. Accessed August 19, 2014.

Slide 24
Global Middle Class Consumption Growth

Asian Middle
Class Spending:

2000 10%
2040 40%

Source: OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No. 285: The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries,
http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf, 2010, 29. Accessed August 29, 2014.
.

Slide 25
Technology Access & The Rise of the
Individual

Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments,
http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
19. Accessed August 19, 2014.

Slide 22
 Megatrend #4: The Digital Era

1. The digitization of our lifestyles is

becoming the norm
2. Digital natives have increasing influence
3. Virtualization is disrupting power
relationships between companies,
customers, and employees
4. The workplace is fragmenting
5. Leadership will need to “go remote” and
prioritize loyalty and reputation
management
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into
the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 77 -78.

Slide 23
 The
Individual in
an Always-
Connected
World

Source: Friedrich, Roman, Michael Peterson, Alex Koster, and Sebastian Blum, The Rise of Generation C: Implications for the World of 2020,
Booz & Company Inc., 2012, http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/uploads/Rise_Of_Generation_C.pdf, 12. Accessed August 29, 2014.

Slide 24
 Generation Y

Source: Singh, Sarwant. “Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society,” Frost & Sullivan
presentation, www.frost.com/prod/servlet/cpo/213016007, 19. Accessed April 16, 2014.

Slide 25
 The
Future
of the
Web

Source: Davis, Mills. “Project 10X’s Semantic Wave 2008 Report: Industry Roadmap to Web 3.0 & Multibillion Dollar Market Opportunities,”
http://www.eurolibnet.eu/files/REPOSITORY/20090507165103_SemanticWaveReport2008.pdf, October 2008, 3. Accessed August 19,
2014.

Slide 26
 Knowledge Management Drivers

1. Increasing domain complexity

2. Accelerating market volatility
3. Intensified speed of responsiveness
4. Diminishing individual experience
5. Multiple locations of knowledge
6. Baby boomer retirement
7. Tacit knowledge challenge
8. Global nature of organizations
9. Distributed workforce
10. Multi-cultural workforce
Source: Sankarasubramanian, Sivasailam, PMP. “Knowledge Management Meets Project Management,” in 2009 PMI Global Congress
Proceedings – Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2009.

Slide 27
 The
Benefits
Realisation
Cycle

Source: Thiry, Michael, PhD, “The Future of Project Management in a Digitised Economy,” in 2013 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – New
Orleans, Louisiana, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, 7.

Slide 28
 The
Integrated
Organization

Central to this
decision process
is recognizing
when change is
needed

Source: Thiry, Michael, PhD, “The Future of Project Management in a Digitised Economy,” in 2013 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – New
Orleans, Louisiana, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, 8.

Slide 29
 Megatrend #5: Demographic Change

1. The world’s population is expanding and

aging in parallel
2. Demographic change is placing great
pressure on social structures and
companies
3. The war for talent will intensify
4. Workforces will diversify as companies
adapt
5. Managing diversity will be a core leadership
competency
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management
Association, 2014, 97 -98.

Slide 30
Increasing Importance of Leadership Skills

Source: Project Management Institute, Inc., Building High-Performance Project Talent White Paper, 2013, 1.
.

Slide 31
 The Global
Labor Force,
2008 to
2039
95 percent of the
population increase
(excluding migration)
will be in developing
countries

Source: OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No. 285: The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries,
http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf, 2010, 24. Accessed August 29, 2014.
.

Slide 32
 Global Aging

Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments,
http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
14. Accessed August 19, 2014.

Slide 33
The Supply of Educated Workers

Source: ATKearney, Global mega trends, http://www.challengefuture.org/static/upload/uploads/Global_mega_trends.pdf, December,

2012, 12. Accessed April 16, 2014.

Slide 34
Reverse Brain Drain of CXO Positions

Source: Singh, Sarwant. “Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society,” Frost & Sullivan
presentation, www.frost.com/prod/servlet/cpo/213016007, 17. Accessed April 16, 2014.

Slide 35
 Global Youth

Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments,
http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
14. Accessed August 19, 2014.

Slide 36
 World
Population
Changes

The consequences of
demographics:
• An aging world
• Public pension
systems under
pressure
• Healthcare
spending increases
• Youth bulges

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population 2012 Wall Poster,
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/trends/WPP2012_Wallchart.pdf, 2012. ST/ESA/SER.A/332. Accessed August 29, 2014.

.
Slide 37
Megatrend #6: Technological Convergence

1. Technological progress is likely to transform

many aspects of our lives
2. Convergence will drive the greatest
innovations
3. R&D will take center stage
4. Convergence will necessitate new levels
and forms of collaboration
5. Societies will debate the ethical boundaries
of technological advancement
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management
Association, 2014, 117 -118.

Slide 38
 Technological Convergence

“Technological “Technological innovation

convergence; occurs is more dynamic than the
when multiple products competition dynamic of
come together to form the market and it is more
one product with the dynamic than the
advantages of all of them” adequacy and stability of
public policy and the legal
framework”
Source: Olawuyi J.O. , Mgbole Friday, “Technological Convergence” Science Journal of Physics, Volume 2012, Article ID sjp-221, 5 Pages,
2012, 1. doi:10.7237/sjp/221

Slide 46
 Triple
Industry regime

Regulations,

Embeddedness
laws, standards Technical knowledge,
capabilities

Mission, Mindset, belief system

identity, norms
Framework of
Industries
Policymakers
Customers

Industry

Suppliers Activists,
(finance, social
machines, movements
labour, Civil society,
knowledge) public discourse

Core firm
Socio-political
Economic (task) Peripheral firm environment
environment
Source: Geels, Frank W., “Reconceptualising the co-evolution of firms-in-industries and their environments: Developing an inter-disciplinary
Triple Embeddedness Framework,” Research Policy, Volume 43, Issue 2, 2014, 261-277.

Slide 40
 Technology
Adoption
Rates

Source: Horace Dediu, Adoption Rates of Consumer Technologies in the US(10% to 90% penetration), November 18, 2013, accessed January 27, 2014,http://
www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Adoption-Rates-of-Consumer-Technologies.png

Slide 41
Which Digital Technologies Will be the Most
Disruptive Over the Next 10 Years?
Technology Percentage of CIOs
Mobile technologies 70%
Big data/analytics 55%
Social media 54%
Public cloud 51%

“The disruptiveness of each of these technologies is

real, but CIOs see their greatest disruptive power
coming in combination, rather than in isolation.”
Source: Gartner, Inc., “Gartner Executive Program Survey of More Than 2,000 CIOs Shows Digital Technologies Are Top Priorities in 2013,”
Stamford, Connecticut, January 14, 2014, http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2649419. Accessed September 4, 2014.

Slide 42
 Emerging
Technologies
Will Change
Everything

Leveraging mobile, social

media, cloud, and big
data/analytics organizations
will put customer/users even
more effectively at the center
of their approaches

Source: Hayes, Tony, “Emerging Business and Technology Trends,” Presentation to ISACA, January 14, 2014, 6,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CEcQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isaca.org%2Fchapters7%2FWellington%2FEvents
%2FDocuments%2FEmerging%2520Business%2520and%2520Technology%2520Trends.ppt&ei=fqMNVJ2WGoKnyASHz4CwBQ&usg=AFQjCNFeAdfn_27wfHCRkgN6dsVhl
mXYEQ&bvm=bv.74649129,d.aWwStamford, Connecticut, January 14, 2014. Accessed April 16, 2014.

Slide 43
How Will Organizational Capabilities Need to Change?

Source: Hayes, Tony, “Emerging Business and Technology Trends,” Presentation to ISACA, January 14, 2014, 8,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CEcQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isaca.org%2Fchapters7%2FWellington%2FEvents%2
FDocuments%2FEmerging%2520Business%2520and%2520Technology%2520Trends.ppt&ei=fqMNVJ2WGoKnyASHz4CwBQ&usg=AFQjCNFeAdfn_27wfHCRkgN6dsVhlmXYE
Q&bvm=bv.74649129,d.aWwStamford, Connecticut, January 14, 2014. Accessed April 16, 2014.

Slide 51
Integrated Technology & Business Teams are Needed

Source: Hayes, Tony, “Emerging Business and Technology Trends,” Presentation to ISACA, January 14, 2014, 9,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CEcQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isaca.org%2Fchapters7%2FWellington%2FEvents%2
FDocuments%2FEmerging%2520Business%2520and%2520Technology%2520Trends.ppt&ei=fqMNVJ2WGoKnyASHz4CwBQ&usg=AFQjCNFeAdfn_27wfHCRkgN6dsVhlmXYE
Q&bvm=bv.74649129,d.aWwStamford, Connecticut, January 14, 2014. Accessed April 16, 2014.

Slide 52
 Connectivity
is Pushing
Convergence

Source: Jawad, Iain. “World’s Top Global Mega Trends To 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures,” Frost & Sullivan presentation,
http://www.investinbsr.com/ipaforum/wp-content/uploads/Iain-Jawad-IPA-Forum-2014-Presentation.pdf, 2014, 11. Accessed September 10, 2014.

Slide 46
 Convergence
of
Technology
Will Lead to
Convergence
of
Competition

Source: Singh, Sarwant. “Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society,” Frost & Sullivan
presentation, www.frost.com/prod/servlet/cpo/213016007, 17. Accessed April 16, 2014.

Slide 47