WHY CELLULOSIC ETHANOL IS NEARER

THAN YOU MAY THINK

1978 – 2007 CRUDE OIL PRICES
IT PAYS TO BE PATIENT

President Bush promotes

cellulosic ethanol
My career begins
Linked Sustainability Challenges of the
Coming Decades
• Diversify transportation fuels & end strategic
role of petroleum in the world
• Provide food for growing & wealthier population
(which will consume more meat)
• Control greenhouse gases & limit other human
emissions (for example, nitrogen & phosphorus
discharge to ground & surface waters)
• Provide economic opportunities for rural people
• These challenges & opportunities intersect at
biofuels, particularly cellulosic biofuels
• Abundant opportunities for creative design &
system level thinking
 Some Basic Energy Facts
1. We do not need “energy”…we need services that
energy provides
2. The services we need from energy are (current
sources or carriers of these energy services)
• Heat (natural gas, coal)
• Light (coal, natural gas, hydro & nuclear)
• Mobility (petroleum—97%, rest is ethanol)
3. Energy has fundamentally different qualities:
carriers are not all interchangeable “All BTU are
not created equal”
4. Industrial society literally stops without liquid fuels
5. Liquid fuels: not “energy” are required for mobility
for the next few decades at least!
 The Problem:
Our Society STOPS
Without Liquid Fuels!
 All Energy Carriers do Not Have Equal
Strategic Importance Either
1. Coal– U.S. & China have huge domestic reserves
2. Natural gas—imports significant, mostly from
Canada and Mexico
3. Petroleum– more than 60% imported (U.S.) and
rising
• “We (U.S.) are addicted to oil” President Bush
• Oil revenues sustain oppressive & aggressive regimes
• Oil used as a political weapon
• Oil revenues finance international terrorism
4. Petroleum dependence undermines
1. climate security (a chief source of greenhouse gases)
2. economic security (no fuels = no movement of goods =
no trade = no prosperity)
3. international security & world stability
Options for Dealing with Petroleum Issue
1. Decrease demand
• More petroleum efficient vehicles
– Better mileage (start measuring vehicle efficiency by
“petroleum per mile” or “miles per gallon gasoline”
– Electrical/hybrid vehicles
• Fewer miles traveled (better planning)
2. Increase supply
• Athabasca oil sands (Canada)
• Oil shale (U.S.)
• Super heavy oil (Venezuela)
• Coal to liquid fuels (U.S., South Africa, China)
• Biofuels
– Biodiesel
– Ethanol (from sugar, from corn, from cellulosics)
 Why Biofuels?
• Biofuels, including cellulosic ethanol, are one
of a small handful of petroleum alternatives
that can provide:
– (inter) national security advantages
– large greenhouse gas reductions
– economic advantages (lower cost fuels than
petroleum fuels)
• This presentation emphasizes cellulosic
ethanol
– From agricultural and forestry residues
– From “energy crops”
 Ethanol Production Flowchart

Corn Process

Ferment- Ethanol
Sugar Distillation Drying
ation

Starch Co-Product
Conversion Recovery
Corn
(Cook or Animal Feed
Kernels Enzymatic Chemicals
Hydrolysis)
 Ethanol Production Flowchart

Corn Process

Sugar Cane Process

Sugar Ferment- Ethanol

Sugar Distillation Drying
Cane ation

Starch Co-Product
Conversion Recovery
Corn
(Cook or Animal Feed
Kernels Enzymatic Chemicals
Hydrolysis)
 Ethanol Production Flowchart
Cellulose Process

Corn Process

Sugar Cane Process

Sugar Ferment- Ethanol

Sugar Distillation Drying
Cane ation

Starch Co-Product
Conversion Recovery
Corn
(Cook or Animal Feed
Kernels Enzymatic Chemicals
Hydrolysis)

Cellulose
Cellulose Conversion
Cellulose
Pretreatment
Hydrolysis

• Crop residues: corn stover, rice

straw, wheat straw, etc.
• Forestry residues/slash
• Energy crops: switchgrass, poplar,
Miscanthus, many others
• Municipal & construction wastes, etc
 Ethanol Production Flowchart
Cellulose Process

Corn Process

Sugar Cane Process

Sugar Ferment- Ethanol

Sugar Distillation Drying
Cane ation

Starch Co-Product
Conversion Recovery
Corn
(Cook or Animal Feed
Kernels Enzymatic Chemicals
Hydrolysis)

Cellulose
Cellulose Conversion
Cellulose
Pretreatment
Hydrolysis

• Corn Stover
• Switchgrass
Thermochemical • Heat and Power
• MSW
Conversion • Fuels and Chemicals
• Forest Residues
• Ag Residues
• Wood Chips
 Major Cost Elements:
Petroleum Fuels & Biofuels
For all commodity products (fuels, bulk
chemicals, semiconductor chips, potato
chips, etc.) two things determine the
final selling price:
1. Cost of raw material (the feedstock)
2. Cost of processing the feedstock to the
desired product(s)
For gasoline, diesel, etc. the cost to make
them depends on petroleum cost (70%)
and processing cost (30%)
 Adapted from Lynd & Wyman
160

140 Energy content

Cost of biomass, $/ton

120

100

80

60 Forages & hay crops-typical prices

40 Our margin for processing: here to here

and beyond
20

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Cost of oil, $/barrel
Plant material is much, much cheaper than oil on both energy & mass basis
 Impact of Processing Improvements: Oil’s
Past & Future
• Historically, petrochemical
processing costs exceeded
feedstock costs
Relative Cost
• Petroleum processing
efficiencies have increased
and costs have decreased
dramatically but reaching
point of diminishing returns

• Petroleum raw materials have

long-term issues
– Costs will continue to increase as
supplies tighten
Early Years Today's Mature Future – High price variability
Processes – Impacts national security
– Climate security concerns
Oil Processing – Not renewable
• Not a pretty picture for our
petroleum dependent society
From J. Stoppert, 2005
 Brazil Has Been Reducing Sugar Ethanol Costs for 30 Years
Cellulosic Ethanol Costs Have Declined and Will Decrease More!

Ethanol-Brazil

Gasoline-Rotterdam
 Impact of Processing Improvements: The
Future of Cellulosic Biomass Conversion
• Processing is dominant cost
of cellulosic biofuels today
• Cellulosic biomass costs
Relative Cost should be stable or decrease
• Processing costs dominated
by pretreatment, enzymes &
fermentation
• Biomass processing costs
? must (& will) decrease
• Two ways to do this:
1. “Learning by doing” in large
scale plants
2. Applied (cost focused) research
• Much more attractive future
– Domestically produced fuels
Today Future – Environmental improvements
Adapted from J. Stoppert, 2005 – Rural/regional economic
development
Testing AFEX pretreatment technology
 Key Processing Cost Elements
Biomass Feedstock 33%

Feed Handling 5%
Capital Recovery
Pretreatment / Conditioning 18%
Charge
Grid Electricity SSCF 12%

Raw Materials Cellulase 9% (after ~10x cost reduction)

Distillation and Solids
Total Plant 10%
Recovery
Electricity
Wastewater Treatment 4%
Process Elect.

Fixed Costs Net 4%

Boiler/Turbogenerator
Utilities 4%
Storage 1%

(0.20) (0.10) - 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40

Biomass Refining CAFI

 Central Role and Pervasive Impact of
Pretreatment for Biological Processing
Enzyme
production

Harvesting,
Biomass Enzymatic Sugar
storage, Pretreatment
production hydrolysis fermentation
size reduction

Hydrolyzate Hydrolyzate Ethanol

conditioning fermentation recovery

Residue Waste
utilization treatment

Biomass Refining CAFI

 Cellulosic Biomass to Ethanol
Cellulosic
Biomass
Production

Biomass Conversion
Research Lab at Michigan
State Works Here Using
AFEX Process

DOE 2005
 How does AFEX work?
Ammonia
Recycle Recovery Gaseous
Ammonia Ammonia

Treated
Biomass Heat Biomass
Reactor Explosion
Expansion
 Biomass heated (~100 C) with concentrated ammonia
 Rapid pressure release ends treatment
 99% of ammonia is recovered & reused, remainder
serves as N source downstream for fermentation
 AFEX covered by multiple U. S. and international patents
 Sugars not degraded, fermentation inhibitors NOT
produced
Before and After AFEX
Pretreatment Economic Analysis by NREL
$/gal EtOH Proof Year: 4th Year of Operation
1.75
AFEX:
$1.41/gal
1.50

1.25

1.00

0.75
MESP

Cash
0.50 Cost
Plant
Level

0.25

0.00
Dilute Acid Hot Water AFEX ARP Lime Corn Dry Mill

Net Stover Other Variable Fixed w/o Depreciation Depreciation Income Tax Return on Capital
Results of AFEX Economic Analysis*

• Reduce ammonia loadings

• Reduce required ammonia recycle
concentrations (manage system water)
• Reduce capital cost of AFEX
• *Analysis performed by Dr. Tim Eggeman of NREL
 Improvements in AFEX Give
Improved Ethanol MESP
Stover Feedstock Cost Processing Cost
$1.60

$1.40 Original estimate2,205 dry ton/day scale

Reduced ammonia loading & concentration
$1.20
MESP ($/gal)

Plus new ammonia recovery

$1.00
approach
$0.80

$0.60

$0.40

$0.20

$0.00
NREL-2004 SSF-COMP- SSF-NEW- CBP-NEW- Mature
UPD UPD UPD

Simulation
 Final Result will be Low Cost
Ethanol from Cellulose
Stover Feedstock Cost Processing Cost
$1.60
2,205 dry ton/day scale
$1.40

$1.20
D
MESP ($/gal)

~$0.62
$1.00

$0.80

$0.60

$0.40

$0.20

$0.00
NREL-2004 SSF-COMP- SSF-NEW- CBP-NEW- Mature
UPD UPD UPD

Simulation
Ethanol from Cellulosics: Look for Fast Growth!

courtesy Dr. Steve Long UICU

What Happens Because of Inexpensive Ethanol?
• Petroleum dominance declines
– Reduce petroleum’s influence on prosperity & politics
– Less chance for international conflict
– Greater economic growth opportunities for poor nations
• Environmental improvements possible
– Reduced greenhouse gases
– Reduced nitrogen & phosphorus-related pollution
– Improved soil fertility
• Rural economic development possible
– Local cellulosic biomass processing
– Greater wealth accumulation in rural areas
– Less migration to cities to find economic opportunity
• Less expensive food (animal feed) possible
– Improved animal feeds: protein & calories
– Less expensive, more abundant human food
 Will People Go Hungry Because of Biofuels?
• Three major U.S. crops alone (corn, soy, wheat) produce
1300 trillion kcal & 51 trillion grams protein/yr
• Could meet U.S. human demand for protein & calories
with 25 million acres of corn (~5% of our cropland)
• Most U. S. agricultural production (inc. exports) is fed to
animals-- i.e., we are meeting their protein/calorie needs
from our land resources. Their needs are:
– 1040 trillion kcal/yr ( 5 times human demand)
– 56.6 trillion gm protein/yr (10 times human demand)
• Thus we can address perceived “food vs. fuel” conflict by
providing animal feeds more efficiently, on less land
• Dairy & beef cattle consume more than 70% of all
calories and protein fed to livestock
• As nations grow richer, they want more protein,
especially more meat….
 U.S. Livestock Consumption of Calories & Protein
TOTAL
HERD SIZE PROTEIN TOTAL ENERGY
ANIMAL CLASS (THOUSANDS) (MILLION KG/YR) (TRILLION CAL/YR)

Dairy 15,350 10,400 184.8

Beef 72,645 25,100 525.3

Hogs 60,234 6,900 136.2

Sheep 10,006 461 10.6

Egg production 446,900 2,470 4.3

Broilers produced 8,542,000 9,540 150.3

Turkeys produced 269,500 1,760 28.6

Total consumed by
U.S. livestock 56,630 1,040.00

Human requirements 5,114 205

Coproducing Animal Feeds and Biofuels
• Must supply animals (fish, poultry, swine, cattle) with:
– Calories (food energy), and
– Protein
• Can grow grasses with high protein content & recover
the protein with well-known (since 1945) technology
• Grasses/crop residues/woody materials also have lots
of calories as sugars “locked up” in plant cell walls.
• Pretreatment processes required to “unlock” these
sugars to make cellulosic ethanol could also unlock
these sugars for ruminant animal feeding
• Cellulose-based biorefineries could also be in the
animal feed business: this is a really important “food
vs. fuel” opportunity
 Ruminant Animals & Biorefineries:
Improve Cellulose Conversion for Biorefinery
= Improve Cellulose Digestibility for Cows

Mobile Cellulose Biorefinery Stationary Cellulose Biorefinery

(a.k.a. Cow)

=
Ruminant Bioreactor: SSCF Bioreactor:
Biomass Input ~ 26 Lb/Day* Biomass Input ~ 5,000 Dry Ton/Day
= 10 M Dry Lb/Day
Capacity ~ 40 Gal Fermentor Capacity ~ 45 M Gal Fermentor
Cow is 3x more efficient than industrial bioreactor
*Rasby, Rick. “Estimating Daily Forage Intake of Cows”. University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, http://beef.unl.edu/stories/200608210.shtml,
10/02/06.
 What Might the Future Look Like?
• Land available (million acres)
– Cropland (430): corn, wheat, soy, sorghum, alfalfa, hay, CRP
– Permanent pasture (570)- half suitable for mechanical harvest
– Most of these acres suitable for perennial grasses
– Does NOT include forests
• Assume we can develop a pretreated perennial grass
yielding 10 tons/acre/yr with 10% protein, 75% cellulose +
hemicellulose (90% digestible), 15% lignin and ash
• Supply ruminants 710 trillion cal/yr & 36 trillion grams
protein/yr using ~40 million acres of productive grasses
• Leaves available >600 million acres for other feeds,
human foods and biofuel production
• I simply do not agree that land for food is a limiting
resource for biofuel production—animal feed is the issue
Thinking Ahead: Farmers & Biofuels

“More than a century of bitter experience

has taught farmers that when they
simply sell a raw crop, they fall ever
further behind.”

David Morris “The American Prospect” April 2006

 Capturing Local Benefits from Biofuels
• Some issues for farmers/local interests
– If farmers merely supply biomass, they will not benefit much from
the biofuels revolution
– Investment required for cellulosic ethanol biorefinery is huge ~
$250 million and up—difficult for farmers to participate
• Some issues for biofuel firms/larger society
– Supply chain issues are enormous—need 5,000 ton/day from
~1,000 farmers: chemicals/fuels industries have zero experience
with such large agricultural systems
– Cellulosic biomass is bulky, difficult to transport
– Need to resolve “food vs. fuel” problem: actually “animal feed and
fuel opportunity”
• Is there a common solution?
– Regional Biomass Processing Center– concept worthy of study
– Pretreat biomass for biorefinery & ruminant (cattle) feeding
– Much lower capital requirements—accessible to rural interests
– Develop additional products over time—animal feed protein,
enzymes, nutraceuticals, biobased composites, etc
 Ethanol: Some Myths and Realities
• Myth: Ethanol has a negative “net energy”
Reality: Gasoline’s “net energy” is worse than ethanol’s
and anyway this metric is irrelevant
• Myth: Ethanol will drive up food prices
Reality: Complicated: no easy sound bites for fuels
derived from oilseeds or grains. Cellulosic ethanol will
reduce food prices
• Myth: Ethanol is bad for the environment
Reality: Compared with what? Corn ethanol is
superior to gasoline now for most metrics. Cellulosic
ethanol will be even better
• Myth: Ethanol will always cost more than gasoline
Reality: Ethanol from corn costs ~$1.20/gal; ethanol
from cellulosics, when mature, will cost $0.60/gal
1978 – 2007 CRUDE OIL PRICES
IT PAYS TO BE PATIENT

President Bush promotes

cellulosic ethanol
My career begins
“Absolutely!”
Questions ??