Why Basic Data Is Not So Basic - Dung

WHY BASIC DATA IS NOT
Confectionary
SO BASIC…
Consumer Panel Basic Training
© Kantar Worldpanel
Consumer Panel: Information Available
COLLECTED
DATA
STANDARD SPECIAL
RESULTS ANALYSIS
– Aggregated data – Disaggregated data

– Key measures – Specific calculation
– Software solution – Consumer Diagnostics
BUSINESS
SOLUTIONS
What will Consumer Panel’s Standard Data tell you about the category
you analyse?
– Category Insights:
– Value & volume size & trends (including seasonality, TET)
– Structural trends, e.g sectors, types, pack sizes
– Average price trends
– Area differences
– Brands Insights:
– Value & volume size & market share, % change (including
seasonality, TET)
– Structural trends, e.g pack types/sizes
– Average price trends
– Area differences
– Retailer Insights:
– Importance of trade channels and individual retailers
– Market share per retailer
CONSUMER PANEL
BASIC MEASURES
 The number of households/individuals that buy the

category/brand at least once in the considered time period as a
1 PENETRATION %
percentage of total households/individuals
AWP (Volume) – or VOLUME  Average Weight of Purchase. Average Volume of category/brand

2 PER BUYER (KG / L / Units) per buyer in the considered time period
3 SPEND PER BUYER (000VND)  Average Spend of category/brand per buyer in the considered
time period
4 PURCHASE FREQUENCY  Average number of purchase trips of the category/brand per

buyer in the considered time period
5 VOLUME PER TRIP (KG/L/Units)  Average amount of Volume for the category/brand per purchase
occasion in the considered time period
6 SPEND PER TRIP (000VND)  Average amount of Value for the category/brand per purchase
occasion in the considered time period
7 • LOYALTY (Share of Requirement/  Share of a Brand within the Brand Buyers, in the basket of
Total Category
SoR) – Volume or Value
4
Why have sales changed? – in consumer terms
or, what can I do to increase sales?
volume/value
# of buyers How much does the

average buyer buy?
How many times does How much does the

the average buyer buy? average buyer buy
at a time?
HOW THE MEASURES FIT TOGETHER - CATEGORY
YEAR ON YEAR COMPARISONS
How many peopleVALUE SALES

buy the market?
How many more buyers
7 % could my brand attract?
How often do people visit the category?

How long
VOLUME SALES
should I support initiatives for?
AVERAGE PRICE
3% 4%
How much do people buy at a time?
Is there a change in size preference?
VOLUME PER
PENETRATION%
HOUSEHOLD (KG)
58.4% 0.4% 8.951 1.0 %
VOLUME PER TRIP

NO. OF TRIPS
(KG)
5.9 1.0 % 1.521 0.8 %
6
Penetration Explained
NB/100 - Number of Buyers per 100 households
– Penetration Rate: the % of urban Vietnamese households who have bought the
analyzed market/segment/brand at least once in a given time period.
– Example:
– Tea has 64.2% penetration in the 24 w/e June 2005
– 64.2% of urban Vietnamese HHs have bought Tea at least once in the last 6 months.
– Penetration = Buyers of Market/Brand ÷ Vietnamese HHs x 100
– Penetration có được đem để phân tích retailer?

– Khu vực nghiên cứu
– Khoảng thời gian
– Khách hàng muốn tăng 1 điểm penetration thì sao?
Exercise for Penetration calculation…
– Sample = 10 households, Universe = 2,500,000 households

– 10 panelists purchasing of one category (consisting of 2 brands A & B) in Quarter 1 (i.e.
P1 to P3). Each period consists of 4 weeks…
– Brand A = 1kg, and costs $3, Brand B = 1.5 kg and costs $4
P1 P2 P3
Panelist 1 1A 2B 1A 1B 1B
Panelist 2 2A 1B
Panelist 3 2B
Panelist 4
Panelist 5 1B 1B 1A
Panelist 6
Panelist 7 2A
Panelist 8
Panelist 9 1A 1B 1B 1A 2A
Panelist 10 2B
Exercise for Penetration calculation…
– P1 Penetration for the market is 30%, what is Brand A and Brand B’s penetration
in P1?
– Which brand attracts the highest 4-weekly penetration and in which period?
– What is Q1 (P1 through to P3) penetration for the category?
– How many more/less households bought Brand A vs. Brand B in Q1?
How should we interpret Penetration?
– It represents the size of the customer base

and tells us how many buyers we’ve
reached
– It tells us “How many customers?” for the
Category / Segment / Brand and if its
changed overtime
– It is a key driver for volume construction &
change
– should not add up penetration
– should pay attention to the time period of
penetration
– penetration & consumption normally have a
very close relationship
11
QB/NB Explained – Average volume bought per buying household
– Average volume per buyer: The average amount (volume or spend) bought of the
market/brand by each household which purchased the market/brand in the
specified time period
– Also referred to as Average Weight of Purchase
– Example:
– Condensed/Evaporated Milk has a QB/NB of 20.3 tins in the 24w/e June 2005
– On average a buying HH of Condensed/Evaporated Milk buys 20.3 tins of the category in
24 weeks.
– QB/NB = Brand Sales (volume or value) ÷ No. of Buyers of Brand

– You cannot add the QB/NB
Exercise for Average volume per buyer calculation…

P1 P2 P3
Panelist 2 2A 1B
Panelist 3 2B
Panelist 4
Panelist 5 1B 1B 1A
Panelist 6
Panelist 7 2A
Panelist 8
Panelist 10 2B
Exercise for Average volume per buyer calculation…
– Category average volume per buyer in P1 is 2kg, how does this compare with
Brand A and Brand B in P1?
– What happens to Brand A’s average volume per buyer as a result of more
households buying in P2 vs. P1?
– What is Q1 (P1 through to P3) average volume per buyer for Brand B?
What does Average volume per buyer tell us?
– Helps design pack-size strategy

– Are my consumers upgrading their
consumption across time…are they
heavier?
– What is the potential consumption of your
consumers (i.e. 10 KG of detergent but
only 5 KG of OMO)
– What is my consumer average
consumption compare to my competitors’?
Average volume per buyer = Frequency x Average volume per trip
What activities may help to increase a brand’s average
volume per buyer?
– Introducing larger pack sizes

– Encouraging complementary usage
– Extra free / twin pack or multi-buy
promotional activities (short term)
– Recommend dosage on the package
label
17
Calculating No. of Trips (Frequency of Purchase)
– The average amount of trips (frequency) in a specified period that a

market/brand is purchased.
– It is a key driver to the QB/NB construction:
– How many times did the buyer purchase the brand?
– Example:
– Milk Powder has a Frequency of 6.4 times in the 24 w/e June 2005
– On average a buyer of Milk Powder buys the category in 6.4 times in a year- on
average once every 2 months.
– Frequency = Total No. of Trips / Brand Purchased ÷ Buyers of Market/ Brand

– You cannot add the # of Purchase
Exercise for Frequency calculation…

P1 P2 P3
Panelist 2 2A 1B
Panelist 3 2B
Panelist 4
Panelist 5 1B 1B 1A
Panelist 6
Panelist 7 2A
Panelist 8
Panelist 10 2B
Calculating Frequency of Purchase
– Category #Pur in P2 is 1.4 times while QB/Pur is 1.9kg, how does this compare
with Brand A and Brand B in P2?
– Calculate #Pur and QB/Pur for Brand B in P3?
– If Category QB/NB for Q1 is 2.3kg and Category QB/Pur for Q1 is 1.4kg, how often
does the average category buyer buy?
Loyalty explained
- this is a measure of repertoire, of consumer choice: the share of purchases of the

brand amongst buyers of that brand in the year ending in the stated period
Total number of brand purchase

Loyalty = x100
Total number of category purchase by the brand buyers
Loyalty is the share of purchases of the brand

amongst buyers of that brand
Exercise
What is the underlying health of my brand?
– Buyer 1: 3 OMO, 2 Surf, 1 Viso

– Buyer 2: 5 Tide
– Buyer 3: 1 OMO, 1 Tide
– Buyer 4: 1 Surf, 1 Viso
– Loyalty OMO = 50% -> consumption of OMO for total Det = 8 kgs
– Loyalty Tide = 85% -> consumption of Tide for total Det = 7kgs
– Avg consumption = 3.75kgs
– OMO share = 26.7%
– Penetration OMO = 50%
– Consumption index = 107
Share of requirement (SOR) – Basket share measure
How much of my brand buyer’s volume/spend goes to my brand?
Where does the rest go?
– What is the SOR profile of my brand?

– How many of my consumers are 100% loyal to my brand
(exclusive buyers)? High loyals – medium loyals – light loyals?
– What % of my brand buyers are only ‘occasional’?
– How does my loyalty rate compare to my competitors?

– Are my brand buyers more loyal to my products?
– What % of my brand buyers spend… Am I losing to my

competitors?
– SOR is also related to the number of available

brands in the market
Is loyalty measured by consumer panel "real loyalty"?
Buyers' loyalty
A higher loyalty level is down to a higher number of loyal consumers
From shopper research we know there is passive & active loyalty

- passive loyalty: they buy the brand by habit => easier to change
- active loyalty: they truly believe in the brand => hard to change
 Consumer panel attitudinal questions / lifestyle questionnaires,

Dynamic Tracking (Millward Brown), Shopper research, ...
LAW OF DOUBLE JEOPARDY
The ‘Ideal’ landscape of a brand is to be dominant in both Buyer Base and Loyalty (SoR) … Why??
Based on Total % Share Loyalty / SoR

TOOTHPASTE
Penetration % Frequency
(Volume) (Volume)
COLGATE 36.2 Share GAP is 60.5 Penetration 4.0

… rather
55.0
depended on GAP is
than
Penetration quite
LOYALTY
GAP substantial
DARLIE 29.5 45.2 2.8 54.6
SOUTHERN LION 12.1 29.7 2.6 34.8
UNZA 6.4 16.8 2.9 35.0
MUKMIN 4.1 11.7 2.7 31.7
GSK/SENSODYNE 1.7 8.8 2.0 19.3
27
LAW OF DOUBLE JEOPARDY
With the number of line extensions across segments, Colgate rightfully acquires higher
Loyalty than the current level (benchmark Darlie).
1.20
HAWLEY & HAZEL 45.2

(DARLIE)
1.00
60.5
COLGATE
PRIVATE LABEL
AVE. VOL/BUYER (KG)
0.80
MUKMIN UNZA
16.8 29.7
3.5 11.7
0.60 SOUTHERN LION
5.3
DIRECT SALES
8.2 UNILEVER
0.40
8.8
SENSODYNE
0.20
Note: the values
denote Penetration %
0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
PENETRATION %
28
THUS, OPPORTUNITY TO GROW
Further room to grow is by gaining buyer base (CDC Red) and potentially to upgrade current CDC
buyers to a more premium range (Total & Sensitive)
1.00 DARLIE
HOW MUCH DO THEY LIKE MY BRAND?
DIRECT
SALES
(VOLUME PER BUYER – KG)
0.80
PRIVATE
COLGATE
LABEL
SOUTHERN
0.60 LION
UNZA
MUKMIN
0.40
UNILEVER
GSK /
SENSODYNE MAT 2012
0.20 MAT 2011
MAT 2010
0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
HOW MANY PEOPLE BUY MY BRAND?
(PENETRATION %)
29
EXERCISE – UNDERSTANDING THE BASIC DATA
Anne May Ling Siladitya Nim
Customer C Customer B
Q1 200g 800g
Customer A QUESTIONS
Q2 200g
All questions based on the total year. What is
the…
Customer B Customer A
Q3 600g 400g 1) Penetration of the Category?
2) Penetration of Customer B?
Customer C
Q4 600g 3) Purchase frequency of the Category?
4) Purchase frequency of Customer A?
5) Purchase size of Customer C?
6) Loyalty/Share of Requirements of Customer

A?
30
EXERCISE
What is the….
• Penetration of the Category? 75%
• Penetration of Customer B? 50%
• Purchase frequency of the Category? 2
• Purchase frequency of Customer A? 1
• Purchase size of Customer C? 400g
• Loyalty/ Share of Requirements of Customer A? 30%
31
How do standard measures link?
What are the components of our brand market share?
What is the underlying health of my brand?
MARKET
SHARE
=
Relative Potential of
penetration the buyers – Share of
(%) X consumption X requirement
(SOR)
( tương đối) index
Out of 100% Compared to the Out of 100%

category buyers, volume bought by an volume/value
x% buy our brand average market bought by our
buyer, our buyer’s buyers, x% are
volume is smaller or for our brand
bigger?
Bring it all together
Volume Share (%)
23.3
19.6
Why does LIX have a higher share than VISO?
8.1
VISO TIDE LIX
Detergents, Vietnam
Supermarkets + Hypermarkets – 52 w/e Aug05
Bring it all together…
Volume Share (%)
23.3
19.6
8.1
Assuming they have the same average purchase size
VISO TIDE LIX
Penetration (%) Loyalty (%) Category Frequency

60.2
27.4 53.8
23.5
40.7 5.0
18.3
4.5
3.0
VISO TIDE LIX VISO TIDE LIX VISO TIDE LIX
Detergents, Vietnam
Bring it all together
Volume Share (%)
23.3
19.6
8.1
Assuming they have the same average purchase size
VISO TIDE LIX
Because LIX attracts more buyers than VISO and reaches a higher loyalty
among its buyers who are heavier category buyers
Penetration (%) Loyalty (%) Category Frequency

60.2
27.4 53.8
23.5
40.7 5.0
18.3
4.5
3.0
VISO TIDE LIX VISO TIDE LIX VISO TIDE LIX
Detergents, Vietnam
Summary Understanding Primary Measures
How many How much How often The average size

they choose they buy the in kg/litres of the
buy the
the brand category brand each time
brand among they buy
others
Brand Volume
Retailer works like Brand
How many How much How often The average

they choose they go basket spend
people
this retailer shopping in this retailer
shop there among
others
Retailer Value
Retailer works like Brand
How many How much How often The average

they choose they go basket spend
people
this retailer shopping in this retailer
shop there among
others
we look at VALUE
because you cannot
Retailer Value look at volume across
categories
Total value spent at retailer

Average Retailer Basket Spend =
Number of purchase occasions in this retailer
That’s Why Basic Data is not so
Basic...
…and why we call it Standard
What does Standard Data tell me?
For both markets & brands ...
– Value and Volume - Size and Trends

– Structural Trends e.g. sectors, pack size…
– Importance of Retailers (Different types of retailers)
– Relative Pricing and Trends
– Regional and Demographics Comparisons
– Penetration – % of buying HHs…
– Frequency of Purchase – How often….
– Average volume bought per buying HH / per shopping occasion
– Demographic Profiling and Rates of Purchase
What is driving expenditure?
Expenditure
VND 000’s
Average Price per Unit Volume Sales

(VND/Kg, VND/Liter, etc) (Tonnes, 000s Liters, etc)
Average Price can vary due to: Volume can vary due to:
 Change in price strategy  Larger volumes bought

 Change in Product mix  Change in Product / Pack size mix
 Promotional activity  Promotional activity
 New Buyers
What is driving volume movements?
Expenditure
VND 000’s

Average volume bought per Penetration (NB/100)

buying HH (QB/NB) - No. of buying HHs
QB/NB can  or  due to: Penetration can  or  due to:
 Change in volume bought per  Change in Frequency

purchase  Change in Heavy / Medium / Light
 Change in Frequency Buyers*
 Change in Product mix  New / Lost Buyers*
 Change in Heavy / Medium / Light
Buyers* * Special Analyses
What is driving volume movements?
Expenditure
VND 000’s

Average volume bought per Penetration (NB/100)

buying household (QB/NB) - No. of buying HHs
Average volume Where Bought?

Frequency of Profile of
bought per Retailers
Purchase (No. of buyers:
occasion
week purchase) Demographic
profile
Further Investigated via Special Analyses:

Profile of each buying HH: Heavy/Medium/Light Buyer New/Lost/Repeat etc ...
Change in Repertoire: Duplication, Loyalty Brand Switching etc ...
Source of growth for Unilever vs. P&G shampoo…
(100) (50) 0 50 100 150 0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Penetration %
Loyalty volume %
Avg. category volume
Pop growth
UNILEVER P&G
Value Value
('000 VND) ('000 VND)
155,532,300 3.3 % 134,877,800 21.9 %
Volume Average Price Volume Average Price

(L) ('000 VND) (L) ('000 VND)
1,476,305 3.5 % 105.352 -0.3 % 1,314,433 15.2 % 102.613 5.8 %
Penetration Average volume Penetration Average volume

(%) per HH (L) (%) per HH (L)
67.4 -3.0 1.012 4.0 % 62.2 1.3 0.975 8.2 %
Category volume Category volume

Volume loyalty (%) Volume loyalty (%)
(L) (L)
1.765 2.5 % 57.3 0.8 1.794 0.1 % 54.3 4
Urban 4 key cities – Total shampoo excluding Gift – YTD Q3’10 vs. YTD Q3’09
Shampoo snapshot performance in Rural…
Volume Volume
growth share Penetration (%) Avg. Volume (L) Volume loyalty (%)
97.5 1.237 100
+1% 100% TOTAL SHAMPOO 96.1 1.279 100
80.6 0.556 43.2
+9% 40% +2.8pts UNILEVER 78.9 0.622 46.2
52.2 0.337 25.0
+30% 19% +4.1pts CLEAR CORE 53 0.433 31.2
-4% -0.6 pt 49.4 0.286 22.0
11% SUNSILK 45.6 0.300 21.6
-21% -1.5 pts 22.2 0.359 23.4
5% LIFEBUOY 17.3 0.365 21.2
+0.7 pt 18.6 0.173 12.7

+29% 3% DOVE 17.2 0.243 17.7
10.6 0.177 11.8
+5% 2% CLR MEN 14 0.142 9.4
+0.2 pt 85.7 0.578 45.8
+2% 41% P&G 82.1 0.619 47.3
77.5 0.510 41.2
33% -0.2 pt REJOICE 73.6 0.545 42.4
+1%
-4% -0.4 pt 34.3 0.228 16.3
6% PANTENE 29.3 0.257 18.3
+0.8 pt 13.0 0.167 10.7

+46% 3% H&S 14.5 0.220 13.9
MAT Q2/09 MAT Q2/10
Source: Rural Panel – Total Shampoo excluding Gift – MAT Q2/10 vs. MAT Q2/09
49
DOES SURGERY 2 WORK AT THE EXPECTED TARGET?
OLD SUNSILK SUNSILK SURGERY 2

28 w/e Feb’10 28 w/e Sep’10
HCMC 70 112 68 108
HANOI 15 56 21 83
DANANG 11 152 6 104
CANTHO 5 109 5 83
LSM 1-4 11 119 11 140
LSM 5-7 50 112 45 102
LSM 8+ 39 85 44 92
STREET SHOP 50 92 54 102
MARKET 27 156 15 103
METRO 8 100 4 70
H+S 12 71 22 98
SACHET 60 147 38 96
NON SACHET 40 67 62 102
Volume contribution % index vs. average market
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam – Urban household purchase panel (urban 4 key cities)
Hair conditioner excl. Gift – Rinse off - 28 w/e Sep 10 vs. 28 w/e Feb 10 – Volume %
CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Penetration (%) Avg. Volume (L) Frequency (times) Avg. Volume per trip (L) Loyalty (volume)
ALL 94.1 1.63 0.22

7.5 100
RETAILERS
94.1 1.66 7.2 0.23 100
STREET 70.1 1.05 6.8 0.16 66

SHOP 68.6 1.11 6.6 0.17 67
25.4 1.06 4.8 0.22 55

MARKET
24.8 1.05 4.6 0.23 55
11.1 1.15 1.6 0.73 53

METRO
9.4 YTD Q309 1.13 1.5 0.77 55
YTD Q310
32.9 1.07 2.1 0.50 55

H+S
35.5 1.08 2.0 0.53 54
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam – Urban household purchase panel (urban 4 key cities)
Shampoo excl. Gift – YTD Q3’10 vs. YTD Q3’09
Key measures definition
Key Measures Definition
– Penetration: the % of all urban Vietnamese households who have bought the
analyzed market/segment/brand at least once in a given time period.
– Average volume bought per buying Household (QB/NB): the average amount
(Volume) bought of the Market/Brand by each household which purchased the
Market/Brand in the specified time period.
– Average spend per buying Household (Exp/NB): the average amount spent (Value)
on the Market/Brand by each household which purchased the Market/Brand in the
specified time period.
– Frequency (# of trips): it represents the behavior in terms of purchasing trips with

at least one purchase per buying household (average number of purchases per
buyer)
– Average volume bought per shopping occasion (QB/Pur): it represents the average
quantity bought per trip for all the buying Household
– Average spend per shopping occasion (Exp/Pur): it represents the average
amount spent per purchase trip for all the buying Household.
– Loyalty: reflects the proportion of choices between a brand and its competition. It is
the quantity dedicated to A brand by Brand A buyers out of the total category
quantity bought by brand A buyers.
– Interaction Index: This is used to benchmark the balance of transfers, function of

the volumes exchanged between the two brands, taking into consideration their
market shares
The formula is:

Part of the transfers AB Part of the transfers BA
MS of B in universe excl A + MS of B in universe excl A /2
– Cumulative penetration: reflects the proportion of all households that purchase a

category or brand over a period of time
– Consumption Index = QB/NB market of brand A buyers out of QB/NB market.
– Index vs. FMCG: the %value of A market sold via one retailer type divided by the
%value of total FMCG market sold via that retailer type.

Why Basic Data Is Not So Basic - Dung

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WHY BASIC DATA IS NOT

– Aggregated data – Disaggregated data

 The number of households/individuals that buy the

AWP (Volume) – or VOLUME  Average Weight of Purchase. Average Volume of category/brand

4 PURCHASE FREQUENCY  Average number of purchase trips of the category/brand per

# of buyers How much does the

How many times does How much does the

How many peopleVALUE SALES

How often do people visit the category?

58.4% 0.4% 8.951 1.0 %

VOLUME PER TRIP

5.9 1.0 % 1.521 0.8 %

– Penetration = Buyers of Market/Brand ÷ Vietnamese HHs x 100

– Penetration có được đem để phân tích retailer?

– Sample = 10 households, Universe = 2,500,000 households

– What is Q1 (P1 through to P3) penetration for the category?

– How many more/less households bought Brand A vs. Brand B in Q1?

– It represents the size of the customer base

– QB/NB = Brand Sales (volume or value) ÷ No. of Buyers of Brand

– Sample = 10 households, Universe = 2,500,000 households

– Helps design pack-size strategy

Average volume per buyer = Frequency x Average volume per trip

– Introducing larger pack sizes

– The average amount of trips (frequency) in a specified period that a

– Frequency = Total No. of Trips / Brand Purchased ÷ Buyers of Market/ Brand

– Sample = 10 households, Universe = 2,500,000 households

– Calculate #Pur and QB/Pur for Brand B in P3?

- this is a measure of repertoire, of consumer choice: the share of purchases of the

Total number of brand purchase

Loyalty is the share of purchases of the brand

– Buyer 1: 3 OMO, 2 Surf, 1 Viso

– What is the SOR profile of my brand?

– What % of my brand buyers are only ‘occasional’?

– How does my loyalty rate compare to my competitors?

– What % of my brand buyers spend… Am I losing to my

– SOR is also related to the number of available

From shopper research we know there is passive & active loyalty

 Consumer panel attitudinal questions / lifestyle questionnaires,

Based on Total % Share Loyalty / SoR

COLGATE 36.2 Share GAP is 60.5 Penetration 4.0

SOUTHERN LION 12.1 29.7 2.6 34.8

UNZA 6.4 16.8 2.9 35.0

MUKMIN 4.1 11.7 2.7 31.7

GSK/SENSODYNE 1.7 8.8 2.0 19.3

HAWLEY & HAZEL 45.2

Anne May Ling Siladitya Nim

4) Purchase frequency of Customer A?

5) Purchase size of Customer C?

6) Loyalty/Share of Requirements of Customer

Out of 100% Compared to the Out of 100%

Volume Share (%)

VISO TIDE LIX

Volume Share (%)

Penetration (%) Loyalty (%) Category Frequency

VISO TIDE LIX VISO TIDE LIX VISO TIDE LIX

Volume Share (%)

Penetration (%) Loyalty (%) Category Frequency

VISO TIDE LIX VISO TIDE LIX VISO TIDE LIX

How many How much How often The average size

How many How much How often The average

How many How much How often The average

Total value spent at retailer

…and why we call it Standard