Simplified procedure to perform some

statistical data computation and analysis

for climate prediction
1. Required data
 Ethiopian data
 Monthly rainfall totals for selected stations
 Monthly number of rainy days for selected stations
 Mean/climatological maps
 Global data
 Sea surface temperature (SSTS)
 Multivariate ENSO Indices (MEI)
 Southern Oscillation Indices (SOI)
 Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR)
 Quasi Biannual Oscillation (QBO)
 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
 Regional data
 Synoptic charts
 Satellite imageries
 Climate prediction products
 ENSO forecasts
 Rainfall forecasts
 Regional atmospheric parameters forecasts
2. Data arrangement
 PART ONE : RAINFALL
 Look at the homogeneous rainfall regimes of the country
for the season under consideration
 Select as many stations as possible for each
homogeneous rainfall regime
 Perform the quality control analysis
 Try to select those stations having less data gap and
good quality of data
 The data format can be arranged in following format;
 2. Data arrangement
 PART ONE : RAINFALL
 Arrange monthly data in an ascending order
 Rank the arranged data and convert the rank into
percentile form
 Similar computation can also be done for seasonal totals
 The final data format can be arranged in following
manner;

Year June Rank Percentile July Rank Percentile ………..

1970

1971

2008
Station Name : Addis Ababa Station Name : Addis Ababa Station Name : Addis Ababa
Year Jun Year Jun Year Jun
1970 61.7 1990 48.3 1 3 1970 61.7 4 11
1971 123.1 1983 56.1 2 6 1971 123.1 25 71
1972 91.4 1981 56.9 3 9 1972 91.4 10 29
1973 117.6 1970 61.7 4 11 1973 117.6 22 63
1974 140.3 1982 63.6 5 14 1974 140.3 29 83
1975 112.9 1987 71.9 6 17 1975 112.9 20 57
1976 106.3 1995 78.2 7 20 1976 106.3 15 43
1977 151.7 1992 82.2 8 23 1977 151.7 30 86
1978 101.6 1989 88.1 9 26 1978 101.6 12 34
1979 119.9 1972 91.4 10 29 1979 119.9 23 66
1980 129.1 1988 93.2 11 31 1980 129.1 28 80
1981 56.9 1978 101.6 12 34 1981 56.9 3 9
1982 63.6 2000 102.1 13 37 1982 63.6 5 14
1983 56.1 1999 104.6 14 40 1983 56.1 2 6
1984 334.2 1976 106.3 15 43 1984 334.2 35 100
1985 110.9 1985 110.9 18 51
1991 107.5 16 46
1986 175.2 1986 175.2 33 94
2002 109.2 17 49
1987 71.9 1987 71.9 6 17
1985 110.9 18 51
1988 93.2 1988 93.2 11 31
1998 111.6 19 54
1989 88.1 1989 88.1 9 26
1975 112.9 20 57
1990 48.3 1990 48.3 1 3
1994 112.9 21 60
1991 107.5 1991 107.5 16 46
1973 117.6 22 63
1992 82.2 1992 82.2 8 23
1993 157.2
1979 119.9 23 66
2004 120.6 24 69 1993 157.2 31 89
1994 112.9 1994 112.9 21 60
1995 78.2 1971 123.1 25 71
1997 128 26 74 1995 78.2 7 20
1996 289.7 1996 289.7 34 97
1997 128 2003 128 27 77
1980 129.1 28 80 1997 128 26 74
1998 111.6 1998 111.6 19 54
1999 104.6 1974 140.3 29 83
1977 151.7 30 86 1999 104.6 14 40
2000 102.1 2000 102.1 13 37
2001 163 1993 157.2 31 89
2001 163 32 91 2001 163 32 91
2002 109.2
2002 109.2 17 49
2003 128 1986 175.2 33 94
2003 128 27 77
2004 120.6 1996 289.7 34 97
2004 120.6 24 69
1984 334.2 35 100
Kiremt season Kiremt season
Year Year
1987 382.9 1 3 1970 879.1 32 91
1995 597.2 2 6 1971 888.5 33 94
1979 618.3 3 9 1972 646.4 6 17
2002 629.3 4 11 1973 848.4 29 83
1997 640.4 5 14 1974 850.8 31 89
1972 646.4 6 17 1975 689.6 12 34
1982 648.3 7 20 1976 695.2 14 40
1994 655.3 8 23 1977 843.3 28 80
1986 672.8 9 26 1978 704.2 15 43
2000 674.4 10 29 1979 618.3 3 9
1999 681.9 11 31 1980 730.6 21 60
1975 689.6 12 34 1981 749.5 22 63
1983 689.9 13 37 1982 648.3 7 20
1976 695.2 14 40 1983 689.9 13 37
1978 704.2 15 43 1984 927.1 34 97
2004 713.4 16 46 1985 750.1 23 66
1992 717.3 17 49 1986 672.8 9 26
2003 723 18 51 1987 382.9 1 3
2001 723.8 19 54 1988 727.2 20 57
1988 727.2 20 57 1989 774.8 24 69
1980 730.6 21 60 1990 808.9 27 77
1981 749.5 22 63 1991 797.9 26 74
1985 750.1 23 66 1992 717.3 17 49
1989 774.8 24 69 1993 848.5 30 86
1998 792.8 25 71 1994 655.3 8 23
1991 797.9 26 74 1995 597.2 2 6
1990 808.9 27 77 1996 1060.1 35 100
1977 843.3 28 80 1997 640.4 5 14
1973 848.4 29 83 1998 792.8 25 71
1993 848.5 30 86 1999 681.9 11 31
1974 850.8 31 89 2000 674.4 10 29
1970 879.1 32 91 2001 723.8 19 54
1971 888.5 33 94 2002 629.3 4 11
1984 927.1 34 97 2003 723 18 51
1996 1060.1 35 100 2004 713.4 16 46
2. Data arrangement (contd)
 PART TWO : Global Indices
 Arrange the SSTs data by combining two
consecutive year on the same row
 Draw time series graphs for SST anomalies
observed at NINO 1+2, NNO3, NINO3.4 and
NINO4 for the underlying periods (similar to
the rainfall series)
 One graph can accommodate 5-6 years
including the data for 2005/05
 PART TWO : Global Indices
 Example: NINO 3.4 SSTA
Time series showing SST anomalies that observed at Nino 3.4 for the periods 1970-2006

2.5
1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 2005/06

1.5

1
SST anomalies in deg. C

0.5

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2
Month
-2.5
 3. Selection of analogue years
 For Global indices
 By looking at the graphs, select those years that resemble with the
current year, 2005/06
 Do the selection for each parameter/index
 The selected years can be as many as ten, but narrowing the
numbers to five to three subsequently.
 Scrutinize the ongoing trends of each parameter on temporal
scales
 Inspect whether the trends are agreeable to one another
 Amalgamate the current and predicted patterns of each parameter,
such as; SST, SOI, MEI, … so that the years selected can be the
best compared to the others
 If you are lucky enough, you can get the best of the three years as
optimum analogue years
 4. Evolutions of Regional and
Global systems (indices)
 For Regional and Global indices
 Evaluate rainfall performance for the previous season
 Also, look at the predictability skill of indices and their
persistency
 Review the future trends of these indices and the confidence
you can acquire form the regional and international
prediction centers
 Produce the final but still preliminary analogue years
 When analogue years are selected, more weight possibly
could be given to the tendency of the indices in the recent
months
 5. Rainfall statistics
 Computing probabilities
 Once the selection of the best analogue years
have settled, the Australian categorical statistical
techniques can be applied as follows
 Thresholds: percentile rainfall exceeding 66 percentile
is grouped as above average rain. In contrast, when it
lies below 34 percentile, the monthly or seasonal
rainfall becomes deficient. Otherwise, is attains the
normal category.
 The result can be generalized for each
homogeneous rainfall zone as follow;
5. Rainfall statistics
Threshold Number of Proportion
Stations
percentile
Less than 34 X x/(x+y+z)*100

34 to 66 Y
………
Greater than 66 z
………
 Example
NINO 3.4 SST anomalies for selected analogue years

1.5

1980/81 1985/86 1995/96

1 2000/01 2005/06 1983

0.5

0
Apr

Apr
Aug

Aug
Dec

Dec
Jul

Jul
Feb

Sep

Oct

Feb

Sep

Oct
Jan

Jun

Jan

Jun
May

May
Nov

Nov
Mar

Mar
SSTa

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2
6. Mapping the probabilities
 The concept of Tercile probabilities
 Plot the tercile probability on the regional
map as Below Average, Near Average and
Above and Delineate regions having similar
tecile probabilitities
 Overview the local, regional and global
indices and their forecast
7. Consensus Tercile rainfall
probabilities
 Regional systems play decisive
roles in reshaping the tercile
probabilities
7. Seasonal rainfall prediction:
Tercile probabilities
 The tercile values can be adjusted by
incorporating all relevant information we
discussed so far.
 The probabilities are weighted with the rainfall
performance of the first best analogue year
 The predicted trend for ENSO is also doable in
weighted practices
 Expertise judgment is integrated in the broad-
sense of the outcome probabilities
8. Tercile probability map

Above Average

Near Average

Below Average
9. Adjusting the probabilities
 Based on the potential regional and global
parameters
 By considering the nature of seasonal rains
performed during the best analogue year(s)
 Employing the patterns of precursor
indicators from the regional synoptic systems
 Looking at skill of predicting ENSO for the
season ahead
10. The main components of
Seasonal climate outlook
 Climatological characteristics of the season
 Skill of predictability for the seasonal
 Onset, cessation, spells, extreme events
 Spatial and temporal performances of the
seasonal rains
 Areas need close monitoring in both
anomalies; wet or dry situations