Risk Management

&
Project Scheduling

Risk Management & Project Naval

 Risk management
• Risk management is concerned with
identifying risks and drawing up
plans to minimise their effect on a
project.
• A risk is a probability that some
adverse circumstance will occur
– Project risks affect schedule or
resources;
– Product risks affect the quality or
performance of the software being
developed;
– Business risks affect the organisation
Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval
Risks (Software)

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 The risk management
process
• Risk identification
– Identify project, product and business
risks;
• Risk analysis
– Assess the likelihood and consequences
of these risks;
• Risk planning
– Draw up plans to avoid or minimise the
effects of the risk;
• Risk monitoring
– Monitor the risks throughout the project;
Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval
 The risk management
process

Ris k Ris k
Ris k analys is Ris k planning
identification monitoring

Ris k avoidance
Lis t of potential Prioritis ed ris k Ris k
and contingency
ris ks lis t as s es s ment
plans

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Risk identification
• Technology risks.
• People risks.
• Organisational risks.
• Requirements risks.
• Estimation risks.

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

Risks and risk types

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Risk analysis
• Assess probability and seriousness of
each risk.
• Probability may be very low, low,
moderate, high or very high.
• Risk effects might be catastrophic,
serious, tolerable or insignificant.

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

Risk analysis (i)

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

Risk analysis (ii)

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Risk planning
• Consider each risk and develop a
strategy to manage that risk.
• Avoidance strategies
– The probability that the risk will arise is
reduced;
• Minimisation strategies
– The impact of the risk on the project or
product will be reduced;
• Contingency plans
– If the risk arises, contingency plans are
plans to deal with that risk;
Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval
Risk management
strategies (i)

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

Risk management
strategies (ii)

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Risk monitoring
• Assess each identified risks regularly
to decide whether or not it is
becoming less or more probable.
• Also assess whether the effects of
the risk have changed.
• Each key risk should be discussed at
management progress meetings.

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

Risk indicators

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Project scheduling
• Split project into tasks and estimate
time and resources required to
complete each task.
• Organize tasks concurrently to make
optimal
use of workforce.
• Minimize task dependencies to avoid
delays
caused by one task waiting for
another to complete.
Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval
 The project scheduling
process

Identify Identify activity Es timate res ources Allocate people Create project
activities dependencies for activities to activities charts

Software Activity char

ts
requirements and bar charts

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Scheduling problems
• Estimating the difficulty of problems
and hence the cost of developing a
solution is hard.
• Productivity is not proportional to the
number of people working on a task.
• Adding people to a late project
makes it later because of
communication overheads.
• The unexpected always happens.
Always allow contingency in
Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval
 Bar charts and activity
networks
• Graphical notations used to illustrate
the project schedule.
• Show project breakdown into tasks.
Tasks should not be too small. They
should take about a week or two.
• Activity charts show task
dependencies and the the critical
path.
• Bar charts show schedule against
calendar time.
Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval
Task durations and
dependencies

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Activity network
14/7/03 15 days
15 days
M1 T3
8 days T9
T1 5 days 4/8/03 25/8/03
25/7/03
4/7/03 T6 M4 M6
M3
s tart 20 days 7 days
15 days
T7 T11
T2
25/7/03 11/8/03 5/9/03
10 days 10 days
M2 M7 M8
T4 T5 15 days

T10 10 days
18/7/03
T12
M5

25 days
T8 Finish
19/9/03

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Activity timeline
4/7 11/7 18/7 25/7 1/8 8/8 15/8 22/8 29/8 5/9 12/9 19/9

Start
T4
T1
T2
M1

T7
T3
M5
T8
M3
M2
T6
T5
M4
T9
M7
T10
M6
T11
M8
T12
Finis h

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Staff allocation
4/7 11/7 18/7 25/7 1/8 8/8 15/8 22/8 29/8 5/9 12/9 19/9

Fred T4
T8 T11
T12
Jane T1
T3
T9
Anne T2
T6 T10

Jim T7

Mary T5

Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval

 Key points
• Good project management is essential for
project success.
• The intangible nature of software causes
problems for management.
• Managers have diverse roles but their
most significant activities are planning,
estimating and scheduling.
• Planning and estimating are iterative
processes
which continue throughout the course of a
project.
Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval
 Key points
• A project milestone is a predictable
state where a formal report of
progress is presented to
management.
• Project scheduling involves preparing
various graphical representations
showing project activities, their
durations and staffing.
• Risk management is concerned with
identifying risks which may affect the
project and planning to ensure that
Risk Management & Project Scheduling Naval