Analisis Valuasi Bisnis

VS

Dariel Arnaldo
Farah U. Amanda
Sarah Diba R.
About
Ramayana &
Matahari
 Vision: Seen as a 'Solution for Head Office:
Clothing Products' in the mass Jl. Wahid
market in Indonesia Hasyim,
Jakarta

Established: Mission: To provide a unique,

14 Desember 1983 interesting and entertaining 2017: 116 stores
shopping experience 2016: 113 stores
 Head Office:
Jl. Bulevar
Vision: All Indonesian can afford to look and feel good Palem Raya,
Tangerang
Established:
24 Oktober 1958 Mission:To provide our customer with affordable quality
fashion in a welcoming shopping environment that provides
a feel good experience and enhances overall quality of life 2017: 155 stores
2016: 151 stores
Steps
Business Basic Accounting Financial Valuation
Forecasting
Strategy Analysis Reports Analysis Implementation

5
Business Strategy
Analysis
 Business Strategy

Based on Strategy > Conglomeration

Based on Form > Horizontal
Diversification

Leather
 Industry Analysis of Ramayana & Matahari
Low Low High High High

Customer Supplier Subtitute Products Competitor New Entrants

• Middle Level-society L • Consignor H • Traditional Market H • Other Department H • Economies of Scale H

• Lower Level-society • SPG H • Fashion Outlet Stores (Matahari/ • Access to Channels
L • Cashier L Adults, Kids, Babies H Ramayana, Yogya) H of Distribution and H
• Employee L (Mayoutfit, Keke, • Other Online Shops Relationships
• Marketing Employee • Home Products L • Other Supermarket H • First Mover L
• Vendor of Member
L (Tip-Top, Naga • Legal H
Swalayan)
Cards
L • Other Minimarket H
(Indomaret,
Alfamart) L
• Go-Shop L
• Go-Mart

*L = Low
H = High
 Competitive Strategy Analysis of Ramayana
Ramayana is targeting the
market in the middle to
lower level-society
Ramayana developed a
lifestyle concept store. For
example, by presenting a
cinema, coffee shop or other
visitor attraction facilities
9
Cost Leadership - Best Value
Despite introducing a new
concept of “Ramayana
Prime”, Ramayana still
maintains the selling price
Ramayana remains selective
in choosing their suppliers of
goods
Matahari uses an Has original product,
Nevada (already has 2
omni-channel Nevada specialty outlets in
strategy
Jakarta and Surabaya)
There are synergies of
online and offline
operations by building pick-
pack-ship facilities with the
aim of being able to reach
networks nationwide
Corporate Strategy Analysis
One Day Sale Program
• This program is held once a month at the beginning of the month by giving up to 70% discounts on certain
products
Fair
• Put certain brands in places that are seen by crowded people, with the aim of increasing sales

Store Expansion
• Ramayana opened three new outlets which currently have 115 outlets

Customer Experience
• Ramayana made an innovation by introducing Ramayana Prime outlets (Ramayana Prime has a new image
and concept but with the same market scope). The things that Ramayana did to improve Customer
Experience include: Transforming store appearance, shopping patterns, and merchandising
• Conduct an online campaign with the tagline #KerenHakSegalaBangsa which is a platform on various social
media
• Collaborate with Disney official partners
Corporate Strategy Analysis
Various advantage from member card
• Matahari Club Card di upgrade menjadi Matahari Reward (bekerja sama dengan OVO) Dengan beberapa manfaat : akses
ekslusif ke berbagai hak istimewa belanja dan pihak ketiga, dapat langsung tukar poin di kasir (karena dulu poin harus
ditukar dengan voucher ).

Sales & Promotion

• Promosi harian dan pembelian dengan bonus.
• Memperkuat konsep center core (dengan menempatkan barang-barang yang bergerak cepat seperti kosmetik, sepatu
wanita, tas tangan dan aksesoris di depan outlet).
• Pemasaran melalui saluran digital (Youtube, Google), Media Sosial (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram), TV, dan Radio.

Store Expansion
• Matahari opened eight new outlets which currently have 155 outlets, 1 of them is new Nevada’s outlets (original
clothing product from Matahari)

Customer Experience
• Matahari bekerja sama dengan Disney dan Indonesia Fashion Forward (IFF)
• The things that Matahari did to improve Customer Experience include: Transforming store appearance, shopping
patterns, and merchandising, try to improve “first impression” dari tampilan barang yang dijual untuk menarik perhatian
konsumen
Ramayana’s and
Matahari’s Basic
Accounting Reports
Ramayana’s
Accounting Strategy
Choice of Accounting Policies

• PSAK adopted from IFRS, examples:

• Transactions with Related Parties: PSAK 7
(2015 Revision)
• Inventories are stated at the lower of cost or
net realizable value. Cost is determined by the
moving-average method.
• All fixed assets are recognized at cost
• Leasing: PSAK 30 (2014 Revision)
 Ramayana’s Accounting Strategy
Choice of Accounting Estimates

• PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk makes no allowance

for their doubtful account (account receivable).
• PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk makes allowance for
obsolescence of their inventories value depends on
review regularly and the NRV of inventories.
• PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk estimates the used
life of their intangible assets = 4 years
• PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk estimates the used
life of their fix assets:

Estimated Life
Building 10 – 20
Renovation and Fixtures 4 -8
Shop Equipment 4–8
Coveyances 4
Office Equipment 4-8
Matahari’s Accounting
Strategy
Choice of Accounting Policies

• PSAK adopted from IFRS, examples:

• Transactions with Related Parties: PSAK 7
(2015 Revision)
• Inventories are stated at the lower of cost or
net realizable value. Cost is determined by
retail invetory method.
• All fixed assets are recognized at cost.
• Operating lease payment are recorded as an
expense based on an allocation method that
reflects the time pattern of benefits enjoyed
by the company.
 Matahari’s Accounting Strategy
Choice of Accounting Estimates

• PT Matahari uses writte-off method for their

doubtful account (account receivable).
• PT Mahatari record inventory loss as a current period
cost of revenue.
• PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk estimates the used
life of their fix assets:

Estimated Life
Building 20
Building Renovation 5
Equipment and 8-14
Installation
vehicles 4
Ramayana’s
Accounting Strategy
Choice of Reporting Format

PSAK 1

Regulations and Guidelines for the Presentation and Disclosure of

Financial Statements issued by OJK

The financial statements have been prepared based on the accrual

concept and use the concept of historical costs

The cash flow statement uses the direct method

Matahari’s Accounting
Strategy
Choice of Reporting Format

PSAK 1

Regulations and Guidelines for the Presentation and Disclosure of

Financial Statements issued by OJK

The financial statements have been prepared based on the accrual

concept and use the concept of historical costs

The cash flow statement uses the direct method

 Major Accounting Policies &
Asset/Liabilities Distortion
Major Accounting Policies Asset/Liabilities Distortion

• Ramayana uses moving average method to determine
its inventory cost
• Matahari uses retail inventory method to determine its
inventory cost.
• Ramayana has been audited by external auditor (EY –
Purwantono, Sungkoro & Surja) and stated in its opinion
that Ramayana financial statements present fairly in
accordance with Indonesian Financial Accounting
Standards.
• Matahari has been audited by external auditor ( PWC –
Tanudiredja, Wibisana, Rintis & Rekan) and stated in its
opinion that Matahari financial statement present fairly in
accordance with Indonesian Financial Accounting
Standards.
 Quality of Disclosure
• Does the company provide adequate disclosures to
assess the firm’s business strategy and its economic
consequences?
• Yes, they want to increase their sales by make a new
concept of Ramayana = Ramayana Prime
• Do the footnotes adequately explain the key
accounting policies and assumptions and their logic?
• Yes, they explain their accounting policies and estimates
• Does the firm adequately explain its current
performance?
• Yes, Ramayana explain about their performance in
Financial Highlight on their Annual Report
• How good is the firm’s investor relations program?
• There’s no relation with investor program
• If accounting rules and conventions restrict the firm
from measuring its key success factors appropriately,
does the firm provide adequate additional disclosure
to help outsiders understand how these factors are
being managed?
• So far, there’s no rules that restrict Ramayana from
measuring its key success factors
• If a firm is in multiple business segments, what is the
quality of segment disclosure?
• Product segments. Ramayana divided their product
segment into 2 products: clothes & accessories and goods.
And Ramayana disclose it
• How forthcoming is the management with respect to
bad news?
• Management explain what problem they faced, increase
and decrease reasons of their sales and assets
 Red Flag
• Unexplained changes in accounting,
especially when performance is poor
• So far there’s no unexplained changes in accounting
• Unexplained transactions that boost profits
• There’s a decreasing profits and they explained the
reason why it happened
• Unusual increases in accounts receivable in
relation to sales increases
• No unusual decreases in AR in relation to sales decreases
• Unusual increases in inventories in relation
to sales increases
• No unusual decreases in inventories in relation to sales
decreases
• An increasing gap between a firm’s reported
income and its tax income
• There’s no material difference between both
Ramayana’s and Matahari’s income and tax in 2017 and
2016
• Qualified audit opinions or changes in
independent auditors that are not well
justified.
• Ramayana Matahari are audited by Big 4 External
Auditor and of course their opinion are guaranteed
• Related-party transactions or transactions
between related entities.
• Ramayana and Matahari explained and lists their related
entities and transactions
Financial Analysis
Financial Analysis

2016 2017 2016 2017

PROFITABILITY Kesimpulan
Ramayana Matahari
ROE 10,08% 12,24% 108,86% 81,92% Bad/Good
ROA 7,35% 8,79% 41,57% 35,14% Bad/Good
Gross Margin 36,07% 37,60% 62,76% 62,47% Bad/Good
Operating Margin 4,53% 6,29% 25,60% 23,71% Bad/Good
EBITDA Margin 6,59% 7,94% 25,59% 23,91% Bad/Good
NPM 6,07% 6,97% 20,41% 19,03% Bad/Good

Based on amount, Matahari is better than the Ramayana.

But based on growth, Ramayana is better than the Matahari.
 Financial Analysis

2016 2017 2016 2017

INVESTMENT Kesimpulan
Ramayana Matahari
TATO 1,26 1,15 2,04 1,85 Bad
Inventory Turnover 4,38 4,60 3,70 3,74 Good

Inventory Days 83,34 79,30 98,57 97,55 Good

AR Turnover 487,07 559,70 135,32 74,65 Good
AR Days 0,75 0,65 2,70 4,89 Good
AP Days 88,44 100,23 162,41 157,38 Bad/Good
CC Days -4,35 -20,28 -61,13 -54,93 Bad/Good

Based on amount, Matahari is better than the Ramayana.

But based on growth, Ramayana is better than the Matahari.
 Financial Analysis
2016 2017 2016 2017
SOLVABILITY Kesimpulan
Ramayana Matahari
Leverage 139,24% 140,00% 261,90% 233,14% Good
Intereset Coverage Ratio (EBIT/Int. 0 0 7965,20% 14826,54% Good
Exp)
Intereset Coverage Ratio ((Op. Cash + 0 0 3156,59% 4368,95% Good
Int. + Tax)/Int. Exp)

2016 2017 2016 2017

LIQUIDITY Kesimpulan
Ramayana Matahari
Working Capital 0,21 0,23 -0,13 -0,12 Good
Current Ratios 280,56% 295,00% 114,90% 113,90% Good
Quick Ratios 197,86% 224,34% 76,45% 75,39% Good
Cash Ratios 59,84% 71,70% 66,18% 60,63% Good
Forecasting
FORECASTING

Macro Economy Assumption Income Statement

Financial Position Sensitivity

33
Macro Economy Assumption
Ramayana
Description 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
GDP of Indonesia 4,80% 5,00% 5,10% 5,20% 5,30% 5,40%
Inflation Rate 3,40% 3,00% 3,60% 3,25% 4,00% 4,00%
Inhabitant (in Million) 254 261 264 267 270 275
Poverty Rate 11,00% 10,70% 10,10% 10,00% 9,80% 9,70%
Industry Growth 6,29% 5,90% 6,12% 8,87% 10,03% 11,03%
Sales Growth of Ramayana - 5,53% -4,17% 4,94% 5,03% 5,12%
G&A Expense Growth - 4,15% 2,68% 1,06% 5,03% 5,12%
Selling Expense Growth - 5,63% -7,57% 6,94% 5,03% 5,12%

Matahari
Description 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
GDP of Indonesia 4,80% 5,00% 5,10% 5,20% 5,30% 5,40%
Inflation Rate 3,40% 3,00% 3,60% 3,25% 4,00% 4,00%
Inhabitant (in Million) 254 261 264 267 270 275
Poverty Rate 11,00% 10,70% 10,10% 10,00% 9,80% 9,70%
Industry Growth 6,29% 5,90% 6,12% 8,87% 10,03% 11,03%
Sales34Growth of Matahari - 8,99% 1,27% 4,94% 5,03% 5,12%
Selling Expense Growth - 9,32% 4,35% 2,81% 5,03% 5,12%
 Macro Economy Analysis
To see the growth rate of the company based on macroeconomic, industrial and corporate analysis.
Ramayana
 Based on the growth of Indonesia's GDP, increasing population, reducing
poverty and increasing industrial growth, the decline in Ramayana sales in 2017
is deemed incompatible with Indonesia's economic conditions.
 This was also acknowledged by Ramayana in their Annual Report. Most likely
this was influenced by a significant increase in inflation from 2016, which was
based on information from APRINDO that the public experienced a decline in
purchasing power and most likely in the middle to lower class (Ramayana target
market).
 However, in 2018-2020 Ramayana sales continue to increase, this is in line with
the results of the Ramayana quarterly report in 2018 and information from
APRINDO. Then in 2019 it is also estimated that the increase in sales is the
impact of the election (people's purchasing power increases).
Matahari
 Based on the growth of Indonesia's GDP, increasing population, reducing
poverty and increasing industrial growth, the sales of Matahari also
decreased in 2017 even though Matahari did not experience a decline as
far as Ramayana.
 This decline in performance is also said by Matahari in their Annual
Report, where retail companies are indeed experiencing sluggishness. But
maybe, the purchasing power of the middle class (the target market for
the Sun) does not go too far. Matahari also identified the number of new
market competition from online sales.
 But in line with Ramayana, in the following years Matahari managed to
rise to improve its performance.
Income Statement Analysis
Growth analysis in I/S based on revenue/sales because Sales Growth is the most beneficial component in making
forecasting assumptions in this situation.
Growth > Indonesia’s GDP
This data is obtained from the assumption
of Indonesia's economic growth issued by
the government.
Analysis of I/S Ramayana Analysis of I/S Matahari
In 2018 there was a decrease in NI due to In 2018 - 2020, Matahari continues to
the formulation of using an average of NI experience an increase in revenue in line
3 years back. However, in 2019-2020 it with the growth in COGS and sales
has increased in revenue and Net Income, expenses.
in line with the cost of goods sold and
other expenses. This is in line with the government's
assumptions regarding Indonesia's GDP.
But the decrease of Ramayana’s NI in
2017-2018 not in line with the
government's assumptions regarding
Indonesia's GDP.
Financial Position Analysis
Growth analysis in F/P based on total assets because in this case the Assets play an important role in analyzing the
development of the company.
Growth
Growth is calculated based on the
increase in each related account from the
last 2 years of the company.
38
Analysis of F/P Ramayana
Almost in all components of Ramayana's
assets from year to year have decreased.
This is recognized by Ramayana because
they sell some of their outlets to reduce
excessive burdens. But they began to
build a store with a new concept,
"Ramayana Prime", so this was in line
with the increase in the company's
liabilities.
But in the end, Ramayana's total assets
continued to increase due to the
increasing short-term investment and
deposit.
Nevertheless, Ramayana remains stable in
distributing dividends every year and
experiencing an increase.
Analysis of F/P Matahari
On the components of Matahari’s current
assets, almost all of them have increased
from year to year. But in their non-current
assets have decreased. Matahari had time
to sell some of its stores to compensate
for the decline in people's purchasing
power.
But the strategy implemented by
Matahari today, which is to survive to give
satisfaction to customers, is right because
their total assets are still stable and tend
to increase. Its business debt continues to
decline.
Matahari is also consistent to distribute
dividends every year by continuing to
increase.
 Sensitivity Analysis
To find out how far the changes that occur are related to financial analysis if annual growth is changed.

Growth 2018e = 5,20% Growth 2018e = 1,00%

RAMAYANA RAMAYANA
Profitability 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Profitability 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
1 ROE 11,64% 10,49% 10,79% 11,22% 1 ROE 11,64% 10,07% 10,36% 10,77%
2 ROA 8,31% 7,66% 7,75% 7,89% 2 ROA 8,31% 7,35% 7,44% 7,57%
3 Gross Margin 39,35% 37,67% 37,67% 37,67% 3 Gross Margin 39,35% 37,67% 37,67% 37,67%
4 Operating Margin 6,70% 5,88% 5,88% 5,88% 4 Operating Margin 6,70% 5,88% 5,88% 5,88%
5 EBITDA Margin 8,30% 7,61% 7,61% 7,61% 5 EBITDA Margin 8,30% 7,61% 7,61% 7,61%
6 NPM 7,23% 6,76% 6,76% 6,76% 6 NPM 7,23% 6,76% 6,76% 6,76%
7 TATO 114,94% 113,27% 114,63% 116,71% 7 TATO 114,94% 108,75% 110,05% 112,05%

MATAHARI MATAHARI
Profitability 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Profitability 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
1 ROE 81,92% 77,39% 71,57% 69,80% 1 ROE 81,92% 76,67% 72,77% 72,80%
2 ROA 35,14% 40,65% 39,34% 39,05% 2 ROA 35,14% 39,03% 37,77% 37,49%
3 Gross Margin 62,47% 62,73% 62,73% 62,73% 3 Gross Margin 62,47% 62,73% 62,73% 62,73%
4 Operating Margin 23,71% 25,08% 25,08% 25,08% 4 Operating Margin 23,71% 25,08% 25,08% 25,08%
5 EBITDA Margin 23,91% 24,81% 24,81% 24,81% 5 EBITDA Margin 23,91% 24,81% 24,81% 24,81%
6 NPM 19,03% 19,73% 19,73% 19,73% 6 NPM 19,03% 19,73% 19,73% 19,73%
7 TATO 184,69% 205,97% 199,33% 197,89% 7 TATO 184,69% 197,75% 191,37% 189,99%
Valuation
Implementation
Valuation Models

Discounted
Dividend
Model

Discounted
Cash Flow
Model

Price
Multiples
 PERGERAKAN SAHAM RAMAYANA

42
PERGERAKAN SAHAM MATAHARI
 Discounted Dividend Model
Ramayana Matahari
Risk free 5,25% Risk free 5,25%
Market risk premium 5,00% Market risk premium 5,00%
Beta Ramayana 1,53 Beta Matahari 1,23
Cost of Debt 0% Cost of Debt 0%
Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 25%
Outstanding Share 7.096.000.000 Outstanding Share 2.917.918.080
Out. Share in million 7.096 Out. Share in million 2.918

DISCOUNTED DIVIDEND DISCOUNTED DIVIDEND

Cost of Equity Cost of Equity

rf + β [E(rm) - rf] 12,90% rf + β [E(rm) - rf] 11,40%

2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Constant 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Constant
Period 0 1 2 3 4 Period 0 1 2 3 4
NI 406.580 399.838 421.029 443.765 468.172 NI Rp1.907.077 Rp2.081.075 Rp2.191.372 Rp2.309.706 Rp2.436.740
Dividend 242.021 283.612 332.351 389.466 389.466 Dividend Rp1.414.023 Rp1.603.641 Rp1.818.686 Rp2.062.568 Rp2.339.155
Equity 3.494.345 3.812.633 3.901.311 3.955.610 4.034.316 Equity Rp2.327.985 Rp2.689.022 Rp3.061.709 Rp3.308.846 Rp3.406.432
DPR 59,53% 70,93% 78,94% 87,76% 83,19% DPR 74,15% 77,06% 82,99% 89,30% 96,00%
ROE 11,64% 10,49% 10,79% 11,22% 10,49% ROE 81,92% 77,39% 71,57% 69,80% 81,92%
growth 4,71% 3,05% 2,27% 1,37% 1,76% growth 21,18% 17,75% 12,17% 7,47% 3,28%
11,64% 10,49% 10,79% 11,22% 11,60%

EPS 57,30 EPS 653,57

D0 34,11 D0 484,60
k 12,90% k 11,40%
2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Constant 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Constant
Period 0 1 2 3 3 Period 0 1 2 3 3
D 35,71 36,80 37,64 38,15 38,83 D 587,24 691,50 775,67 833,61 860,95
187,13 P4 388,27 3.748,97 P4 8.609,54
PV 35,71 32,60 29,53 26,51 269,81 PV 587,24 612,49 608,54 579,27 5.982,71
P0 394,16 P0 8.370,25
Current Price 1.150,00 per 02/11/2018 Current Price 4.830,00 per 02/11/2018
Overvalued > Dont Buy Undervalued > Buy
 Discounted Cash Flow Models
Ramayana Matahari
Risk free 5,25% Risk free 5,25%
Market risk premium 5,00% Market risk premium 5,00%
Beta Ramayana 1,53 Beta Matahari 1,23
Cost of Debt 0% Cost of Debt 0%
Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 25%
Outstanding Share 7.096.000.000 Outstanding Share 2.917.918.080
Out. Share in million 7.096 Out. Share in million 2.918

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW

Cost of Equity Cost of Equity

rf + β [E(rm) - rf] 12,90% rf + β [E(rm) - rf] 11,40%

2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Debt - - - - - Debt - - - - -
Equity 3.494.345 3.812.633 3.901.311 3.955.610 4.034.316 Equity 2.327.985 2.689.022 3.061.709 3.308.846 3.406.432
Debt + Equity 3.494.345 3.812.633 3.901.311 3.955.610 4.034.316 Debt + Equity 2.327.985 2.689.022 3.061.709 3.308.846 3.406.432
(1 - Tax Rate) 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% (1 - Tax Rate) 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
WACC 12,90% 12,90% 12,90% 12,90% 12,90% WACC 11,40% 11,40% 11,40% 11,40% 11,40%

2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Period 0 1 2 3 4 Period 0 1 2 3 4
Growth (by GDP) 5,20% 5,30% 5,40% 5,50% Growth (by GDP) 5,20% 5,30% 5,40% 5,50%
Net Income 406.580 427.722 450.391 474.713 500.822 Net Income 1.907.077 2.006.245 2.112.576 2.226.655 2.349.121
Interest (1-t) - - - - - Interest (1-t) 13.705 14.417 15.182 16.001 16.881
Depreciation 183.684 193.236 203.477 214.465 226.260 Depreciation 293.316 308.568 324.923 342.468 361.304
Capex 140.144 147.431 155.245 163.629 172.628 Capex 319.663 336.285 354.109 373.230 393.758
Working Capital (147.181) (154.834) (163.041) (171.845) (181.296) Working Capital 89.299 93.943 98.922 104.263 109.998
FCFF 597.301 628.361 661.664 697.394 735.750 FCFF 1.805.136 1.899.003 1.999.650 2.107.631 2.223.551
Terminal Value 7.357.503 Terminal Value 22.235.508
Discount Rate (WACC) 12,90% 12,90% 12,90% 12,90% 12,90% Discount Rate (WACC) 11,40% 11,40% 11,40% 11,40% 11,40%

Period 0 1 2 3 3 Period 0 1 2 3 3
Discount Factor 1,00 0,89 0,78 0,69 0,69 Discount Factor 1,00 0,90 0,81 0,72 0,72
Discounted FCFF 597.301 556.564 519.098 484.614 5.112.680 Discounted FCFF 1.805.136 1.704.670 1.611.327 1.524.541 16.083.904

Outstanding Share 7.096 Outstanding Share 2.918

Value of the Firm/share 1.024,56 Value of the Firm/share 7.789,66
Value of the Debt/share 0,00 Value of the Debt/share 0,00
Value of Equity/share 1.024,56 Value of Equity/share 7.789,66
Current Price 1.150,00 per 02/11/2018 Current Price 4.830,00 per 02/11/2018
Overvalued > Dont Buy/Buy Undervalued > Buy
 Price Multiples
PRICE MULTIPLES PRICE MULTIPLES

2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e

Current Price 1.150 1.150 1.150 1.150 Current Price 4.830 4.830 4.830 4.830
Outstanding Share 7.096 7.096 7.096 7.096 Outstanding Share 2.918 2.918 2.918 2.918
NI 406.580 399.838 421.029 443.765 NI 1.907.077 2.081.075 2.191.372 2.309.706
EPS 57,30 56,35 59,33 62,54 EPS 653,57 713,21 751,01 791,56
P/EPS 20,07 20,41 19,38 18,39 P/EPS 7,39 6,77 6,43 6,10

Current Price 1.150 1.150 1.150 1.150 Current Price 4.830 4.830 4.830 4.830
Outstanding Share 7.096 7.096 7.096 7.096 Outstanding Share 2.918 2.918 2.918 2.918
Market Value of Share Cap. 8.160.400 8.160.400 8.160.400 8.160.400 Market Value of Share Cap. 14.093.544 14.093.544 14.093.544 14.093.544
Debt - - - - Debt - - - -
Cash & Cash Equivalents 1.142.654 1.166.494 1.061.985 738.069 Cash & Cash Equivalents 1.582.817 2.257.308 2.495.103 2.383.316
Enterprise Value 7.017.746 6.993.906 7.098.415 7.422.331 Enterprise Value 12.510.727 11.836.236 11.598.441 11.710.228
EBITDA 669.993 668.007 703.411 741.395 EBITDA 2.709.253 2.875.682 3.028.093 3.191.610
EV/EBITDA 10,47 10,47 10,09 10,01 EV/EBITDA 4,62 4,12 3,83 3,67

Current Price 1.150 1.150 1.150 1.150 Current Price 4.830 4.830 4.830 4.830
Equity 3.494.345 3.812.633 3.901.311 3.955.610 Equity 2.327.985 2.689.022 3.061.709 3.308.846
Outstanding Share 7.096 7.096 7.096 7.096 Outstanding Share 2.918 2.918 2.918 2.918
Book Value 492,44 537,29 549,79 557,44 Book Value 797,82 921,56 1.049,28 1.133,98
P/BV 2,34 2,14 2,09 2,06 P/BV 6,05 5,24 4,60 4,26
 Price Multiples

INTRINSIC MULTIPLES

2017 2018e 2019e 2020e

Intrinsic Multiple P/EPS
Dividend Growth Rate 17,18%
Required ROE/Cost of Equity 12,90%
DPR 59,53% 70,93% 78,94% 87,76%
DPR (13,89) (16,55) (18,42) (20,48)
r-g

2017 2018e 2019e 2020e

Intrinsic Multiple P/BV
ROE 11,64% 10,49% 10,79% 11,22%
Required ROE 12,90%
Growth of Dividend 17,18%
ROE - g 1,30 1,56 1,49 1,39
r-g
ANALYSIS

DISCOUNTED DIVIDEND MODEL

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL

PRICE MULTIPLES
48
Final Decision
Final Decision
Thank you!