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Prepared by :
Eng. Feras M.A N
Pictures Source : https://www.flickr.com/photos/ransomtech/5811447011
Keys Definitions
Consequences:
Both positive and negative impacts to cost, schedule, and performance
Risk Management Process :
Risk Planning
What is the
1 program’s risk
management
process?
5 Risk Risk
Monitoring 2 Identification
How has the risk What can go
changed? Communication wrong?
and Feedback
Executive Level
(CEO)
Management Level
(Risk Working Group , Program Manager & Risk
Manager)
Working Level
(Risk Owner & Team Members)
01-Risk Planning
• Assign roles, responsibilities, and authorities
• Select and document overall approach:
– Process and procedures
– Risk analysis criteria for likelihood and consequences
– Risk handling procedures
• Establish traceability of risk to technical requirements and overall program objectives
• Align government and contractor roles, responsibilities, tools, and information exchange
• Determine risk management resources, to include budget, facilities, personnel, schedule
• Determine risk management battle rhythm
02-Risk Identification
Identify risks by answering the questions: What can go wrong? or What is
uniquely hard or difficult?
All program personnel are encouraged to identify candidate risks.
Example risk ID methodologies:
– Independent assessments
– SOW requirements
– Brainstorming sessions
– Interviews
– Review of similar/historical programs
– Trade studies
Review analysis of Technical Performance Measurements, resource data,
life cycle cost information, WBS/EVM data trends, and progress against
critical path
Risk Categorization :
• Requirements
External (Business)
• Technology
• Engineering • Estimates • Dependencies
Programmatic
• Integration • Program Planning • Resources
Technical
Example :
- If the company’s production web site goes down, then the company will
lose internet sales until the server can come back up.
“Condition–Consequence”
• Other formats include the “condition–consequence” format. In this format, the
“consequence” is the possible outcome of the existing “condition,” which
has the following structure:
• • A “condition” that is causing concern or uncertainty exists, therefore a negative impact or
“consequence” to a program objective may result.
Example :
• - Given the fact that the Precast production elements is produced in one
Factory with no alternative options readily available, there is a risk that we
could lose progress if the Factory stops .
“Because - Event - Consequence “
• Another approach adds a “Because” to the statement construct, producing a
“Because - Event - Consequence “ format. This leads to statements with the
following structure:
• “Because” of a fact or existing condition, “an event” may occur, resulting
in a negative impact or “consequence” to a program objective.
Example :
• -Because the contractor is experiencing Procurement problems, The high
speed elevator may not be delivered by June 8, causing a day-for-day
schedule slip .
Recognizing a Weak Risk Statement
• 1. Makes an overly general observation:
- Weak: If the high vacancy rate in engineering staff persists, then the program staffing will be
inadequate.
This is an overly general statement, with somewhat circular logic that provides no impact on program
objectives or lends any insight into underlying or existing causal conditions.
In contrast, the statement below is more informative.
- Stronger: If the high vacancy rate in software engineering staff persists due to aggressive recruiting
by competitors, then the commitment to deliver first software builds in 6 months will not be met.
Weak : If the program’s funding is withheld due to poor test results, then the program
• schedule will be jeopardized.
In this case, the potential for curtailed funding is actually a consequence of the program’s poor test
results, which should be the focus of attention but is not directly or centrally addressed in the risk
statement.
• Stronger: If the vehicle reliability test performance is below xx MTBF, Then the resulting schedule delay to
fix failures could jeopardize FY 2018 funding.
References :
• Department of Defense -“Risk, Issue, and Opportunity Management Guide” for Defense
Acquisition Programs - June 2015
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty