Drought in Pakistan

LEAD Pakistan LDP, Karachi

3 June 2015
Brig. (R) Kamran Shariff
 Outline:

• Setting the stage;

• Drought prone regions and historical perspective;
• Hazard risk rating;
• Climate change and the meteorological perspective;
• Drought situation 2014 onwards: water, food and agriculture,
health and livestock;
• Drought governance in Pakistan;
• Drought monitoring; and
• Mitigation strategies
 Definitions:
• Drought is a slow onset disaster whose onset occurs as a
consequence of rainfall shortage but its impact varies in various
regions consistent with the local environment, weather, soil
conditions and host of other factors. Its impact, unlike other
natural disasters, extends over considerable space;
• Variants: Meteorological, hydrological, agricultural & socio-
economic
• Drought Mitigation: structural / physical measures (appropriate
crops, dams or engineering projects) or non-structural measures
(policies, awareness, knowledge development, public
commitment, and operating practices) undertaken to limit the
adverse impacts of drought;
 Definitions:

• Drought Response: efforts such as provision of assistance or

intervention during or immediately after a drought disaster to
meet life preservation and basic subsistence needs of the
affected population. It can be of immediate, short term or
protracted duration;
Source: ISDR
• Sustainable Development: meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs. (World Bank)
 Question:

Is drought a disaster situation warranting emergency

response;
or a developmental issue with a drought situation
reflecting developmental deficit ?
 Components of a drought policy
Sustainable development;
• Water security;
• Food security;
• Livelihood diversity;
• Environmental security;
• Rangelands management;
• Livestock management;
Mitigation strategies;
Emergency response management;
Awareness raising and capacity building
 Drought Actors:

• Federal Government: Planning Commission, WAPDA, Ministry

of Climate Change, NHPREN, Ministry of Food Research,
NDMA, PARC, PMD, SUPARCO;
• Provincial Government: Departments: P&D, Food, Health,
Livestock, Forest, Agriculture, Irrigation, PDMA, Provincial
Nutrition Cell;
• Districts: Relevant departments of the District Government led
by the DC;
• UN Agencies: WFP, UNICEF, FAO, WHO, UNDP, relevant NGOss
Deserts / Rangelands:
Cholistan:
 Drought prone regions of Pakistan:
The Thar Desert: spread over 320,000 square kms with 85% in
India.
Pakistan’s Thar desert is spread over approx 50,000 square
kms across Tharparkar, parts of Umarkot, Sanghar, Khairpur
and Ghotki;
Kirthar Range in Sindh: Spread over 25,000 sq kms, it extends
into Jamshoro, Dadu and part of Thatta district;
Rangelands of Balochistan: comprise 79% of the landmass.
Include Central Balochistan Quetta and Kalat; Western
Balochistan desert: Chagai, Kharan, Gwador, Lasbela and
Kharan. Eastern Balochistan Zhob and Loralai regions;
Cholistan Desert: 26,3000 square kms along Bahawalnagar,
 Droughts in historical perspective:

• Major droughts recur in 12-16 years cycle and lesser versions

every 4-6 years in the vulnerable regions;
1999-2001 Drought:
• Affected the entire country but Balochistan was worst affected
followed by Sindh;
• 3 million pop affected and 2.5 million livestock lost;
• 58 districts seriously affected, or which 23 were from
Balochistan;
• Agricultural growth registered negative 2.5%. Losses estimated
 Drought in historical perspective:

• IFIs assisted $ 360 million Drought Emergency Releif Assistance

programme focused on emergency response, communication
and water infrastructure mainly;
• Chronic water shortages negatively impacted on traditional
coping mechanism;
• Livestock distress sale and increased morbidity and mortality;
• High incidence of water borne disease and chronic and acute
mal nutrition;
• Socioeconomic poverty
 Hazard and risk assessment factors:
Baseline Factors:
• Food and nutritional security;
• Access to improved drinking water;
• Fully immunised children 12-23 months;
• Total 12 marks
Drought Vulnerability Aspects:
• Drought occurrence;
• Exposure: % of population in drought vulnerable areas;
• Drought impact.
• Total 18 marks.
Grand total: 30 marks
 Present Drought Situation; Climate change aspect:

• There is evidence to suggest that global warming has

negatively impacted upon the Pakistan's environment, like
causing loss of bio-diversity, shifts in the weather patterns and
reduced fresh water supply. Climate change trends are
synonymous with climate variability in terms of flash floods
and drought incidence;
• Prevalence of El Nino conditions;
 2013 Summer 2014 Summer October 2014 November December 2014 February 2015
Monsoons Monsoons 2014

Pakistan Plus 10% Minus 23% Plus 59% Minus 3% Minus 99% Minus 16%

Sindh Minus 21% Minus 78% Minus 94% Minus 48% Minus 100% Minus 74%

Balochistan Plus 11% Minus 33% Minus 42% Plus 10% Minus 100% Minus 42%

Punjab Plus 9% Minus 1% Plus 63% Plus 14% Minus 100% Minus 11%

KP Plus 13% Minus 32% Plus 173% Minus 19% Minus 98% Plus 15%

GB Plus 12% Plus 118% Plus 12% Plus 21% Minus 100% Minus 36%

AJ&K Plus 6% Normal Plus 1% Plus 1% Minus 100% No departure

 Drought 2014 onwards:

• Water security in Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh), Cholistan and

Balochistan;
• Food security and agriculture;
• Health:
• Livestock situation;
• The Balochistan drought situation
• Priority of needs identified by the communities: water,
livestock, health, food
 Water security

160

140 137.22
132.83 131.31
128.67
122.31 121.80
120
Inflow Volume (MAF)

100

80

60

40

20 17.16
12.54
7.02 8.26
5.02
1.69
0
1961-62 To 1970-71 1971-72 To 1980-81 1981-82 To 1990-91 1991-92 To 2000-01 2001-02 To 2010-11 2011-12 To 2013-14

Period

Western Rivers Eastern Rivers

 Health: Nutrition status 2014, < 5 deaths 2012, 2014 ;

Districts Umarkot Sanghar Kambar S Tharparkar Thatta Shikarpur Jacobabad Kashmore Badin Dadu

GAM
25.3% 24.1% 22.3% 22.2% 19.2% 18.2% 13.% 13.3% 9.7% 4.2%
2014

Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharparkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu

2012 198 441 234 318 59 436 1257 88 186 554

2014 259 592 314 587 203 356 1707 89 189 668
 Health: < 5 deaths 2012, 2014; < 1 deaths 2012, 2014

Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharparkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu

2012 174 4083 373 245 99 1401 608 484 357 2124

2014 166 299 162 366 131 872 321 175 230 408

Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharprkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu

2012 160 3771 351 135 66 1365 332 412 216 1710
2014 161 50 127 144 56 848 43 125 178 95
 NDMA Drought National Drought • Planning Commission (Lead)
Monitoring Cell Steering Committee • Ministry of Water and Power
• Ministry of Climate Change
• Ministry of Food Security

National •
•
Ministry of Finance
National Health Emergency
Preparedness and Response Network
• WAPDA
• NARC
• NDMA
• PMD
• PCRWR

Provincial Drought • Planning & Development Department

Steering Committee (Lead)
•
Provincial

Irrigation Department
• Food and Livestock Department
• Health Department
• Education Department
• PDMA
• Community Welfare Department
• Social Welfare Department
• Provincial Nutrition Cell

• Commissioner (Lead)
Regional Drought Task • DCs
Force (DTF) • DHO Health
Regional

• Livestock
• Food Controller
• Revenue Department
• Social Welfare
• Community Development Department
• Forest
• NGOs
• Community members
Districts

First Responders
Vulnerable Districts and
Communities
 Drought Monitoring: Issues
• Meteorological and hydrological networks are often
inadequate in terms of monitoring parameters;
• Forecasts often lack reliability on seasonal timescale and
specificity, thus restricting their use;
• Drought monitoring systems lack integration, including
those of climate change, water and soil parameters and
socio-economic to map the drought magnitude, spatial
extent and potential impact;
• Drought early warning dissemination methods are lacking in
reach to the end users, and thus do not support decision
making at multiple response levels;
 Drought Monitoring:
• Global facilities & regional networks;
• In Pakistan, PMD Drought Early Warnng Centre uses
Standard Precipitation Index. Fortnightly and three monthly
updates;
• SUPARCO issues monthly crops situation updates. Uses
Keetch Byram Index;
• WFP disseminates monthly market prices bulletin and
quarterly food security update;
• Need for Integration;
• Proposed integrated drought monitoring and response
mechanisms for Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh) and Cholistan
 Drought Mitigation Strategies:
• Addresses (1) water, (2) food and agriculture, (3) health, (4)
livestock and range management; (5) cbdrm; and (6) climate
change adaptation;
• Align mitigation with development, and emergency responses
with mitigation;
Strategy development:
• Sustainable development;
• Sustainable consumption;
• Institution building + governance aspects;
• Reinforce structural capacity;
• Promote integration and coordination;
 Drought Mitigation Strategies:

Water:
• Policy issues;
• Supply side management;
• Water demand management;
• Ecological solutions;
• Water governance;
• Desalination
• Emergency response management
 Drought Mitigation Strategies:

Food and Agriculture:

• Policy inputs;
• Research and capacity building
• Promotion of less water demanding crops;
• Soil conservation;
• Watershed management;
• Water conservation;
• Emergency response management.
 Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Health and Nutrition:
Reinforce needs based nutrition interventions;
Reproductive health;
Human resource;
Access and outreach;
Disease surveillance and responses;
Preventive and curative
 Drought Mitigation Strategies:

Rangeland Management:
• Mapping of inventory building;
• Measures for checking desertification;
• Rangeland usage control;
• Reinforce goverance aspects;
• Promote communities inclusive management;
Livestock: Veterinary support, planning for emergency support,
emergency fodder solutions, community awareness raising and
capacity building
 Tharparkar Drought Response 2015
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Emergency Response
Emergency Food
Water Tankering
Health outreach
Mitigation Actions
Water Security/RO Plants
Nutrition CMAM
Ecological Interventions (water)
Livestock sanctuaries
Infrastructure Projects
Water infrastructure
Health infrastructure