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JOHN F.

KENNEDY AND
LYNDON B. JOHNSON
AT THE 1968 CONVENTION
KENNEDY CAMPAIGNS IN WISCONSIN AND
IN WEST VIRGINIA
DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION 1968
HUBERT HUMPHREY NOMINATED IN 1968
MCGOVERN-FRASER COMMISSION

• FIRST TIER CAUCUSES BE OPEN TO EVERYONE


• EVERYONE MUST DECLARE A PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
• FIRST TIER CAUCUSES MUST BE SIMULTANEOUS
SEQUENCE AS STRATEGY
Year Presidential Primary is Presidential Primary is
binding advisory (beauty contest
only)
1952 3 7
1960 3 8
1968 3 6
1972 12 6
1980 33 2
1992 35 0
2004 31 1
2016 40 3
BEING FIRST BECOMES CRITICAL
THE DELEGATE COUNT
• DEMOCRATS USE A PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM • REPUBLICANS USE A WIDE VARIETY OF SYSTEMS
WITH A 15% THRESHOLD BUT NO FRACTIONAL FROM PROPORTIONAL TO WINNER TAKE ALL AND
VOTES IN BETWEEN
OBAMA-CLINTON 2008 RACE UNDER TWO
ALLOCATION RULES
• PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION (IN EFFECT) • WINNER TAKE ALL RULES (HYPOTHETICAL)
• BY FEBRUARY 9, 2008 OBAMA HAS A DELEGATE • FEBRUARY 9 OBAMA WOULD HAVE HAD 911 – TO
LEAD OF JUST UNDER 100 – 1113 TO CLINTON’S CLINTON’S 1232
1024
• AT THE END OF THE PRIMARIES IN JUNE – OBAMA
• AT THE END OF THE PRIMARIES IN JUNE OBAMA’S WOULD HAVE HAD 1511 TO CLINTON’S 1899
DELEGATE LEAD IS JUST OVER 100 – 1764 TO
1640.
WINNOWING TAKES PLACE:
• THE MONEY PRIMARY – END OF 2019
• THE VIABILITY PRIMARY – END OF 2019
• THE EARLY CONTESTS ESP. NEW HAMPSHIRE – FEBRUARY 2020
• THE DELEGATE COUNT – MID-MARCH 2020
• REACHING THE MAGIC NUMBER - APRIL OR MAY 2020
HOW THE MATH WORKS

• CANDIDATE A GETS 55% OF THE VOTE


• CANDIDATE B GETS 45% OF THE VOTE
• IN A 5 DELEGATE DISTRICT: .55 X5 = 2.75 .45 X5 = 2.25 – THE WINNER GETS 3 DELEGATES
• IN A 4 DELEGATE DISTRICT: .55 X4 = 2.20 .45X4 = 1.80 – THE WINNER GETS 2 DELEGATES
THE CONTESTED CONVENTION
SUPERDELEGATES:

• HAVE EXISTED SINCE 1984 CONVENTION – BECAME AN ISSUE IN 2008 AND 2016
• 2016 CONVENTION – THERE WERE 712 SUPER DELEGATES OUT OF 4,763 DELEGATE VOTES OR 14.9%
• 2020 CALL TO THE CONVENTION ALLOWS SUPER DELEGATES TO VOTE ONLY ON THE 2ND BALLOT OR IF IT
CAN’T CHANGE THE OUTCOME ON THE 1ST BALLOT
2020 SO FAR
Date Republican Delegates at stake Democratic Delegates at stake
Feb 3 – Feb 29 – Iowa, NH, NV, SC 137 155
Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020 – 10 799 1237
states and 2 territories
Second Super Tuesday, March 10, 299 460
2020
Third Super Tuesday, March 17, 255 441
2020
Fourth Super Tuesday, April 28, 189 319
2020
THE DISAPPEARING CAUCUS

• 2016 – 13 STATES USED CAUCUSES IN BOTH PARTIES: 8 STATES USED A CAUCUS IN ONE OR THE OTHER
PARTY.
• 2020 – WASHINGTON STATE & UTAH DEMOCRATS MAY SWITCH TO A PRIMARY;
• 2020 – NEBRASKA, IDAHO, MINNESOTA & COLORADO WILL SWITCH TO A PRIMARY
• THESE MOVES COULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF DELEGATES ELECTED IN CAUCUS STATES TO UNDER 10%