Internal Migration and

Development in the Philippines

Nimfa B. Ogena
University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI)
ogena@upd.edu.ph
Introduction
• For nearly 3 decades, internal migration studies
have been overshadowed by international
migration studies, particularly labor migration
• Between 2005 and 2010, the stock of overseas
Filipinos increased by 2.5 million from 7.0 million
in 2005 to 9.5 million in 2010.
• Official estimate of DFA, POEA and CFO as of
Dec. 2013 indicates that the number of overseas
Filipinos has reached 10.2 million.
• The infrastructure is well set up for collecting and
managing data especially on international labor
migration
• Many countries even look up to the Philippines
as a model for the efficient administration of its
labor export policy although some controversial
problematic cases surface from time to time
• Remittances of overseas Filipinos have been
closely monitored by the government with the
hope that their use would ultimately feed into
national development outcomes.
Overseas Filipinos have become
modern day heroes.
How about internal migrants?
Census on Population and Housing (CPH)

5-year period migration estimates from data collected:

• Current residence
• Previous residence (asked for 5 years old and above)
• Date moved to the current residence

Collected for 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010

Censuses
Migration Matrix
Residence 5 years ago
Region
/provi
nce 1 2 3 . . . J Total

1 NM1 M12 M13 . . . M1J P1

2 M21 NM2 M23 . . . P2

3 M31 M32 NM3 . . . P3

Current . . . . . . . . .
residence
. . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . .

J MJ1 MJ2 MJ3 . . . NMJ PJ

Total C1 C2 C3 CJ T
• The 2010 CPH reported t about 2.9 million
Filipinos changed residence between 2005 to
2010
• About 1.4 million of the increment in the OF stock
are temporary labor migrants who are also
counted in the CPH as a member of the
household.
• Therefore , there were only 1.1 million
international migrants vs. 2.9 million internal
migrants
1 international migrant per
2 internal migrants
• As in previous mid-decade censuses, the 2015
CPH will not be gathering data on migration for
the period 2010 to 2015

• Other possible sources of data on migration

• special surveys
• administrative data
What migration data do we get from the census?
Latest Published Internal Migration Statistics based on 2000 CPH
Indicators Years covered Published level of
disaggregation

In-migration rate
(number of in-migrants
per 1000 population) by
sex
Out-migration rate
(number of out-migrants
per 1000 population) by
sex
Net migration rate 1995-2000 Region, Province, Sex
(number of out-migrants
per 1000 population) by
sex

Source: Appendix A of the 2000-based Philippine Population Projections

Inter-regional Net Migration Rates by Region:
1995-2000
Gaining Regions Losing regions
REGION IVA NCR
REGION III REGION V
REGION I REGION IX
CAR CARAGA
REGION VII REGION VI
REGION X REGION VIII
ARMM
REGION XI
REGION XII
REGION II
REGION IVB

Source: Appendix A of the 2000-based Philippine Population Projections

Inter-regional
Migration,
2005-2010

Gaining
Regions

REGION III
REGION IVA
REGION VII
CAR
REGION XI
CARAGA

Source: Small Working Group on Migration of the Inter-Agency Committee

on Population Projections for the 2010 CPH based population projections
Inter-regional
Migration,
2005-2010
Losing Regions

NCR
REGION I
REGION II
REGION IVB
REGION V
REGION VI
REGION VIII
REGION IX
REGION X
REGION XII
ARMM
Inter-regional net migration rates for base year
2010:

• trends of NMRs during 1995-2000 and 2005-2010

Type Trend Regions exhibiting the trend
1 Increasing positive
2 Decreasing positive Regions 3, 4a, 7
3 Increasing negative Regions 1, 2, 4b and 10
Decreasing negative Regions 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, NCR
4 and ARMM
5 Positive to negative
6 Negative to positive CAR, Region 11 and Caraga
Note: the regions exhibited types 2, 3, 4 and 6 only

Source: Small Working Group on Migration of the Inter-Agency Committee

on Population Projections for the 2010 CPH based population projections
Inter-provincial
Migration,
2005-2010

Provinces with
more than 20
thousand net
migrants
gained

CAVITE
LAGUNA
RIZAL
BULACAN
Inter-provincial
Migration,
2005-2010

Provinces with
more than 15
thousand net
migrants lost

PANGASINAN
NEGROS
OCCIDENTAL
QUEZON
Internal Migration and Development Nexus
• Migration, Population Distribution and
Urbanization
• Labor Market Conditions (Income, employment)
• Migration and Poverty (Remittances)
• Migration and Health
• Education and Migration
• Migration, Housing and Security
• Environment and inequity/access to services
• Etc.
Study Objectives
1. Identify development factors associated with
inter-provincial net migration gain/lose ;
2. Examine how being a net migration
gaining/losing province move selected
development variables.
Inter-provincial
Migration,
2005-2010

The NMRs were

used to
categorize the
provinces as
gaining or losing
provinces for the
subsequent
analyses.
Development Indicators
Health Education

• Total Fertility Rate • Growth rate of college

• Infant Mortality Rate graduates or higher 2005-
• Child Woman Ratio 2000
2010
• Percentage of barangays
• Proportion of barangays
with health station 2007 with college/university LT
4% 2000
• Percentage of barangays
with hospital LT 5% in
2000
Development Indicators
Economy Labor Market

• Inflation Rate (in percent) • Employment rate GE 95

2008 (in percent) 2009
• Number of • Poverty Incidence (in
Establishments (in 100) percent) 2006
2000 • Average Annual Family
• Number of Operating Income (in 100,000) 2006
Ecozone • Average Annual Family
• Purchasing Power of Expenditure (in 100,000)
Peso (2006=100) in 2008 2006
LT 0.90
Development Indicators
Urbanization Security

• Number of Urban • Crime Rate per 100,000

Barangays 2007 population, 2010
• Number of Telephone • Have Barangays with
Lines Installed 2009 Peace and Order
• Paved Roads (in km) Problems 20
2005 • Crime Rate greater than 1
• Percentage of barangays per 100 population, 2009
with access to national 03
highway GT 75% 2000
Development Indicators
Access to services Security

• Number of Urban • Crime Rate per 100,000

Barangays 2007 population, 2010Have
• Number of Telephone Barangays with Peace
Lines Installed 2009 and Order Problems 2003
• Paved Roads (in km)
2005
Odds ratios for Bivariate Models Predicting Positive
NMR (2005-2010) in Philippine provinces

Predictors Odds
Ratio
Total Fertility Rate 0.333*
Poverty Incidence (in percent) 2006 0.956**
Employment rate (in percent) 2009 0.998*
Average Annual Family Income (in 100,000) 2006 6.535**
Average Annual Family Expenditure (in 100,000)
2006 12.428**
Inflation Rate (in percent) 2008 0.809*
Growth rate of college graduates or higher 2005-
2010 1.059+
Odds ratios for Bivariate Models Predicting Positive
NMR (2005-2010) in Philippine provinces (cont.)

Predictors Odds
Ratio
Have Barangays with Peace and Order Problems
2003 0.421+
Crime Rate greater than 1 per 100 population, 2009 11.733*
Percentage of barangays with access to national
highway GT 75% 2000 2.348+
Percentage of barangays with college/university LT
4% 2000 0.442+
Odds ratios for Multivariate Models Predicting Positive NMR
(2005-2010) in Philippine provinces
Model Model Model
1 2 3
Percentage of barangays with access to national
.572 .603
highway GT 75% 2000
Average Annual Family Income (in 100,000) 2006 5.177 2.447 4.881

Crime Rate greater than 1 per 100 population, 2009 .092 .124
Have Barangays with Peace and Order Problems
2.083
2003
Inflation Rate (2006=100), 2008 .902
Percentage of barangays with college/university LT
1.889
4% 2000
Constant .111 3.270 .637

A 100,000 thousand increase in the average annual family income increases by

about 5 times the odds to be a migrant-gaining province holding the effect of the
crime rate constant.
Having a crime rate of at least 1/100 population reduces by 89% the odds of a
positive NMR .
Bivariate correlations of NMR (2005-2010) with selected recent
indicators
NMR
Poverty Incidence 2012 -0.34611**
Crime Rate greater than 1 per 100 population, 2012 0.12017

Poverty incidence in 2012 is significantly lower for provinces that gained

migrants during the period 2005-2010.

Being a migrant-losing or migrant-gaining province during the period 2002-

2010 does not matter as far as crime rate of 1/100 or higher in 2012 is
concerned.
Summary and Conclusion
• Migrant-gaining provinces are associated with
higher
• Annual family income
• Annual family expenditures and
• High crime rate (greater than 1/100 population).
• Higher income is associated with greater odds of
a positive NMR.
• Having a crime rate greater than 1/100 population
reduces by 89% the odds of a positive NMR .
Development Data Issues

• Changes of area boundaries

• Changes of definitions used
• Frequency and timely release administrative data
collected by government agencies
• Prompt publication/sharing of at least provincial-
level data to stakeholders
Migration Data Issues
• Need to fill the gap in measuring internal
migration via census
advocate for inclusion of migration questions in mid-
decade census
• Changes of area boundaries
• Under-enumeration across census
• Duration of “residence” (Permanent/Temporary)
• “Double-counting” – in place of origin and in place
of destination
• Reporting of migration data
• Types of migration (lifetime, seasonal, circular, 5-year or
1-year period migration rates)
• Level of measurement (inter-regional, inter-provincial;
Number of migrants/Rates)
• Disaggregation of internal migration data (by age, sex,
administrative data)
• Types of migration (lifetime, period migration, seasonal,
circular)
• Frequency of reporting: 5-years, 2-years, 1-year
• Prompt publication/sharing to stakeholders of
internal migration data from CPH and other data
sources
Recommendations
• Further research on the migration and
development nexus
• Advocacy by stakeholders for
• Making the National Migration Survey a designated
survey, with initial assessment of migration data needs
• Synchronization of national and local migration data
collection initiatives
• Regularity and timely release of publication of internal
migration statistics
• Public use access to internal migration data, free if
possible for researchers
Internal Migration and
Development in the Philippines

Nimfa B. Ogena
University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI)
ogena@upd.edu.ph