Autor Periodo Zona Tipo de datos.

Tendencia
Church and White, 2011 1900- 2009 Global TG [PSMSL] 1.7 ± 0.2 mm/yr-1
Church and White, 2011 1993- 2009 Global Sat [NASA - CNES] 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr-1
Hamlington etal., 2011 1950-2009 Global TG [PSMSL- RLR] 1.97 mm/yr
Hamlington etal., 2011 1993-2009 Global TG [PSMSL- RLR] 3.22 mm/yr
Hamlington etal., 2011 1993-2009 Global SAT [AVISO] 3.28 mm/yr
TG [PSMSL- RLR], Modelos
Spada & Galassi, 2012 Desde 1880 Global 1.5 ± 0.1 mm yr−1
GIA
Nerem and NCAR, 2016. 1993-2016 Global SAT 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr-1

Autor Periodo Zona Tipo de datos. Tendencia

Prom. 1.7 ± 1.3 mm/yr-1,
TG – [UHSLC, PSMSL], correg.
Torres_Tsimplis_2013 1993-2010 Caribe (2.5 ± 1.3 mm/yr-1 After
con AVISO y otros modelos.
GIA Corr.)
Palanisamy et al., 2012 1993-2009 Caribe SAT [AVISO] 1.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr
Autor Periodo Zona Tipo de datos. Tendencia (mm/yr-1)
Torres, Gomez &
1952- 1992 Cgena TG [UHSLC – Rq] 5.61 mm/yr-1
Afanador., 2007
1950 –
Ruíz et al., 2008 Cgena TG [IDEAM] 6 mm/yr-1
1993
Restrepo y López, 2008 1955-2000 Cgena TG [UHSLC/NOAA] 5.98 mm/yr-1
Andrade, 2008 1951-2000 Cgena TG- Datos Estaciones 4.5 mm/yr
1950-1970 Cgena 3.8 mm/yr-1
Restrepo et al., 2012 TG [PSMSL - RLR]
1970-1990 Cgena 5.6 mm/yr-1
Andrade et al., 2013 1950-2010 Cgena TG [GLOSS, CIOH] 5.8 mm/yr-1
1908 – TG – [UHSLC, PSMSL],
Torres_Tsimplis_2013 Cgena 5.3 ± 0.3 mm/yr-1
1973 correg. con AVISO y otros.
Rangel et al., 2015 1950-2000 Cgena TG [PSMSL - RLR] 5.5 mm/yr-1
NOAA [Web page] 1949 - 1992 Cgena TG [PSMSL] 5.31 ± 0.37 mm/yr
Palanisamy et al., 2012 1950 -1992 Cgena TG [PSMSL] 5.6 mm/yr
Palanisamy et al., 2012 1993-2009 Cgena SAT [AVISO] 2.5 mm/yr
ALTIGAPS No indicado Cgena 4.82 mm/yr
Autor Periodo Zona Tipo de datos. Tendencia (mm/yr-1)
Torres, Gomez & Afanador,
1907- 1997 Cristóbal TG [UHSLC – Rq] 2.01 – 3.58
2006
Andrade, 2008 1907-1997 Cristóbal TG- Datos Estaciones 1.6701 mm/yr
Atomei, 2011 1907-2010 Cristóbal JASL 1.5861 mm/yr
Atomei, 2011 1909-1980 Cristóbal PSMSL- RLR 1.4313 mm/yr
TG – [UHSLC, PSMSL], correg.
Torres_Tsimplis_2013 1908 – 1973 Cristóbal 1.9 ± 0.1 mm/yr-1
con AVISO y otros.
NOAA [Web page] 1909 -1980 Cristóbal TG [PSMSL- RLR] 1.41 mm
Spada & Galassi, 2012 1909-1979 Cristóbal TG [PSMSL- RLR], Modelos GIA 1.4 ± 0.1 mm/yr
Palanisamy et al., 2012 1950-1980 Cristóbal TG [PSML] 2.5 mm/yr
Palanisamy et al., 2013 1993-2009 Cristóbal SAT [AVISO] 1.9 mm/yr
Atomei, 2011
Palanisamy etal., 2012

Detrended MRESL and altimetry sea level curves in mm,

interpolated at the tide gauge locations since 1950. MRESL in
black, tide gauge in red and observed altimetry in blue. The star
symbol indicates the station used in 2-D past sea level
reconstruction.
 Sea-level rise (SLR) has been observed from tide gauges over the 20th century at an average rate of 1.7mm/yr (Church
and White, 2011 ) and by altimetry over the period from 1993-2016 at average rate of 3.3mm/yr (Nerem and NCAR,
2016). Pickering et al 2017
Nerem and NCAR, 2016.

The global mean sea level timeseries is an excellent,

integrative indicator of climate change, providing a record
independent of common metrics like global surface air
temperature. The major contributions to the observed sea
level trend of 3.3 mm/year include the ocean's thermal
expansion, meltwater from mountain glaciers, and
discharge from the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets. Interannual variability about the trends occurs due
to ENSO and related climate processes. Measurements
from the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason series of satellite radar
altimeters have been used to estimate global mean sea
level height. These data are available for October, 1992 to
present. Tide gauge sea level data have complementary
strengths and weaknesses.
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-
mean-sea-level-topex-jason-altimetry
 La determinación del régimen medio, es el comportamiento medio del nivel del mar (MA+MM), durante un periodo
de tiempo, en este caso durante un periodo de 20 años (1991 -2010) para cada uno de los puntos ubicados en las
zonas de estudio.

Tabla 2. Valores de probabilidad de no excedencia

para el Golfo de Urabá donde se muestran los puntos
seleccionados dentro de la malla de cálculo.
95% 99% 99,90%
Orejarena

Punto 1 0,6823 0,754 0,8071

Punto 2 0,6437 0,7132 0,7645
Punto 3 0,5449 0,6034 0,6478
Punto 4 0,5298 0,586 0,6296
NOAA (Web page)

The mean sea level trend is 5.31 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.37 mm/yr based on
monthly mean sea level data from 1949 to 1992 which is equivalent to a change of 1.74 feet in 100 years.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global_station.htm?stnid=902-021
NOAA (Web page)

The mean sea level trend is 1.41 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.22 mm/yr based on monthly
mean sea level data from 1909 to 1980 which is equivalent to a change of 0.46 feet in 100 years.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global_station.htm;jsessionid=E8A1D3A238BCFB3C2E4F49B9FF8FE3C7
?stnid=904-011
Restrepo et al., 2012]

… (B) relative sea level time series for the Cartagena station (thin line: monthly values, thick line: annual
values; dotted line: historical trend) (adapted from Restrepo et al., 2012).

The data recorded by the GLOSS program (Global Sea Level Observing System) at the Cartagena station
(1949-1992) show a progressive rise in the mean sea level with a rate of 3.8 mm between 1950 and 1970
and 5.6 mm y between 1970 and 1990 (Fig. 3)
[Rangel et al., 2015]

Fig. 9. Relative sea level time series for the Cartagena de Indias station (the only one along the Colombian Caribbean coast).
Data source: http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/572.php.

This region only has the Cartagena station, which is part of the sea level worldwide data network collected by the Global
Sea Level Observing System http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/572.php. Hourly data allows determination, by
means of the use of a least-square linear regression, of the trend in RSLS for the 1950-2000 periods. The time series
indicates an RSLR increment of 5.5 mm/yr (Fig. 9), which is close of the values of 5.9 mm/yr and 5.5 mm/yr obtained by
Restrepo and Lopez (2008) and Restrepo et al. (2012) respectively and fits with the global trend estimated by the IPCC
(2013). The value of 5.5 mm/yr would mean an approximate elevation of 0.50 m in the next 100 years; when RSLR
increases, low coasts (the study region) and deltaic lowlands with their related ecosystems as mangroves, corals and
sea grasses, become more susceptible to erosion associated with inundations and flood events (Ericson et al., 2006).
 Fig. 8. Mean relative sea-level (mm) from Cartagena (a),
Caribbean coast (University of Hawaii, Sea Level Center Data).
(a) Trend line for the 1952–2000 period with slope = 5.98 mm/yr.
Restrepo y López, 2008]

Hourly sea level data were obtained from tidal gauges at Cartagena (1955–2000) (University of Hawaii Sea Level Center/NOAA). The
trend in relative sea level was estimated by least-squares linear regression. To evaluate the monthly mean sea level anomalies near the
deltas related to ENSO, we removed mean monthly values to eliminate seasonal effects. A filtered sea level was calculated by
subtracting the interannual mean sea level for each month (S*) from the respective monthly mean sea level in each year (S) for the ith
month of the jth year to form the deviation from the long-term monthly mean sea level S'jj=S*i(Quinn et al., 1978; Enfield and
Allen, 1980).

Along the Caribbean coast, time series of sea level at Cartagena indicate a relative sea level rise of 5.98 mm yr (Fig. 8a).
Even though the Caribbean deltas have not exhibited erosional trends during the last two decades due to physical processes, many
coastal areas between the Atrato and Sinú deltas are experiencing dramatic rates of erosion, up to 50 m yr (Correa and Morton, 2006).
One of the reasons for this generalized coastal retreat may be due to the geological characteristics of the coast, including sedimentation
and compressional tectonics that cause the presence of mud diapirism (Vernette, 1985; Vernette et al., 1992). Also, this shoreline is
characterized by series of faulted marine terraces that disappear at the Sinú delta and the Morrosquillo Gulf (Fig. 1f) but reappear to
the east of the zone. Based on radiocarbon dates there is a tectonic tilting of 4 mm yr where the terraces exist (Page, 1983; Serrano,
2004).
 IDEAM, 2010 [Nota Técnica]

Tendencia general del nivel en el puerto de Cartagena

Cambios periódicos de nivel en el puerto de Cartagena

En el periodo de registro del nivel del mar en el puerto de Cartagena (1952-1993), se observan oscilaciones de ascenso y descenso de
largo periodo, con un ciclo de 18-19años, similares a las registradas en Buenaventura y Tumaco. En los años 1960-61 el nivel del mar
general mantuvo mínimos valores, empezó a subir y tuvo máximos niveles en 1978-79, luego descendió. La estación fue trasladada
de su localización original a un sitio cercano a partir del año 1993, en la actualidad el nivel está ascendiendo. La tendencia general
durante los 42 años analizados en Cartagena es ascendente, con una tasa promedio anual de 3.6 mm/año, durante el período de
análisis (1952-1993), el nivel del mar en Cartagena ha subido 151.5 mm.
 Aunque no hubo datos de nivel del mar en el
Ruíz et al, 2008]

golfo de Morrosquillo, en la serie de

Cartagena se encontró un ascenso del nivel
del mar de 6 mm año-1, es decir 25 cm en 44
años (entre 1950 y 1993), que puede ser
representativo para una amplia región del
Caribe colombiano (Figura 8a).
Andrade et al, 2013]

The daily mean tide is inferred from hourly observations through a Demerliac filter (Demerliac, 1974). The monthly mean sea level is
then calculated from the arithmetic mean of daily means. Figure 3 shows monthly mean level variations for the period 1950–2010.
Only months for which the daily mean sea level could be calculated for at least 50% of days are selected, representing 585 of 720
months. The pattern that emerges is an annual elevation of 5.8 mm yr-1
La serie Capurganá tiene registros diarios de nivel del mar desde abril de 2007 hasta la
fecha. En Capurgana predomina la marea de tipo diurno mixto. Los máximos del nivel
del mar durante el año se presentan en abril y octubre y los mínimos en enero y julio. El
nivel medio del mar es de 1.3 mts. La amplitud media de la marea astronómica en
cuadratura es de 0.09 mts y en sicigia es de 0.47 mts.

La estación Cartagena cuenta con un sensor de nivel tipo radar. La estación ha registrado
el nivel del mar diariamente desde el año 1951 hasta hoy. En Cartagena predomina la
marea de tipo diurno mixto. Los máximos del nivel del mar durante el año se registran
en abril y octubre y los mínimos en enero y julio. El nivel medio del mar es de 0.51 mts.
La amplitud media de la marea astronómica que se registra durante la cuadratura en
Cartagena es de 0.24 mts y en sicigia es de 0.60 mts.

Fuente: Cartilla pleamares y bajamares – IDEAM (Cartilla 2011-2014, después reportan

cifras más bajas)
La tendencia general durante los 42 años analizados en Cartagena es ascendente, con una tasa promedio
anual de 3.6 mm/año, durante el período de análisis (1952 - 1993), el nivel del mar en Cartagena ha subido
151.5 mm (Fig. 15). Fuente: IDEAM – Nota técnica Nov 2010 -
http://www.ideam.gov.co/documents/21021/23877/TENDENCIAS+DEL+NIVEL+DEL+MAR.pdf/2fc812e5-d4e4-
4628-ac61-a5b34aa500f1

Éste es el valor real del MSL que se adopta para la Bahía de Cartagena, representado en la regla de nivel ubicada en la
estación mareográfica; en otros términos, el MSL para Cartagena se encuentra ubicado a 0,37 m, sobre el cero de
referencia de la estación principal mareográfica ubicada en el muelle del CIOH. (Pulido et al., 2013)

CGENA- FUENTE: SONEL

Reference Frame:ITRF08
Ellipsoid:GRS80

Position
(Reference epoch: 2004.4973)
Longitude (°):-75.53385373
Latitude (°):10.39133426
Height (m):4.0765

marco de referencia ITRF08, elipsoide GRS80 Cgena referenciación de alturas al cero del mareog.,
y al elipsoide WGS84 en metros (Pulido 2013)