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Content of the presentation
1. Economic Policies
2. Economic Models
3. Use of Economic Models in Economic Policies
4. Usefulness of Economic Models in Economic
Policies
5. Czech example
6. Some Conclusions
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1. Economic Policies
Welfare Function:
W = W(Y,X,p)
Objectives (Y)
Instruments (X)
Preferences (p)
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Economic Policy Problem
Max W = W(Y*,X,p)
Subject to
Y = f(Y, X, Z)
in which:
Y* is a subset of Y
Z is vector of other variables
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Objectives (Y*)
Economic growth
Employment
Inflation
Balance of Payments
Distribution of income
---------------------------
Government Deficit
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Instruments (X)
Quantitative instruments:
Fiscal instruments
Monetary instruments
Non-quantitative instruments:
Legal instruments
Institutional instruments
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Fiscal instruments
Taxes: tax base; tax rates and
various types of taxes
Government expenditures:
consumption and investment
expenditure
Below the line: different modalities
to finance the deficit
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Monetary instruments
Interest rates
Money supply
Quantitative restriction in for
example credit provision by banks
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Legal instruments
Articles in the law about for example
competiton and regulation of
markets
Bankruptcy law
Law and regulations related to
private sector activities
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Institutional instruments
Public Institutions for support to
private sector activities
Examples: Competition Agency;
Energy agency; Chambers of
Commerce; Foreign Investment
agencies, etc.
Reduction of “red tape”
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Problems with welfare function
W = W(Y*,X,p)
Quantitative only
Preferences not known
Preferences not stable over time
Mathematical function not known
(Theil’s Certainty Equivalence
require quadratic function)
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2. Economic Models
Y = f(Y, X, Z, e)
Large variety of different models
Different models for different purposes:
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Short-term models, main features
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Hybrid models
Focus on medium term, say up to 5
to 7 years
Combination of supply and demand
Long term solution comparable with
that of long-term models
Short-term fluctuations around long-
term growth path
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Macro versus sector models
Macro models focus on aggregate,
assuming that the sector
composition does not matter for
total
Sector models focus on industrial
structure of the economy, assuming
that sector composition is important
for the aggregate
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General Equilibrium Models
Main assumption: prices generate
equilibrium between supply and demand
Often static, describing one state of
equilibrium and compares this with an
equilibrium under different assumption of
exogenous variables
Recently also dynamic, describing the
path from one equilibrium to another
state of equilibrium
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Problems with models - 1
Y = f(Y, X, Z, e)
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Problems with Models - 2
Models are always incomplete
Uncertainty in behavioural equations
Instability of parameters:
• Instability over time
• Parameters not invariant under policy
change (Lucas critique)
• Local validity
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Advantages of Models
Structure and focus the discussion
Coping with complexity
Consistency
Accountability
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Sensitivity of results
Results are in particular sensitive for
specification of:
Wage equation
Investment
Exports and imports
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Example Wage Equation
WPRPC =
+ 1.00 * (0.66*PCNPC + 0.34*PYPC)
+ 1.00 * LABPROD
+ 1.00 * WEDGE1
+ 0.75 * WEDGE2(-1)
- 0.36 * (UR(-4) – 10.00)
R-squared = 0.92
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Implications wage equation -1
Terms of trade effect through (PC/PY)
Shifting indirect taxes to employers (PC)
Shifting burden of taxes and social
security premiums to employers (WEDGE)
Additional real wage increases if
unemployment rate is above 10% (UR)
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Implications wage equation -2
Taxes and contributions to social
security affects cost per unit of
output
Balanced budget multiplier (that is
expenditure increase financed
through additional taxes) negative
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Example Imports and Exports
Observations Czech economy:
both export and import GDP ratios
have increased considerably over
past decade;
Difficult to find satisfactory
econometric fit
Both demand and supply approach
not satisfactory
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3. Use of Economic Models in
Economic Policies
Forecasting (baseline)
Uncertainty simulations
Sensitivity analysis
Policy simulations
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Forecasting
Y = A * Y + Σ (B(i) * Y(t-i)) +
Σ(C(i) * X(t-i+1)) +
Σ (D(i) * XROW(t-i+1)) i = 1,…,n
Parameter uncertainties (A, B(i),
C(i), D(i))
Uncertainty policy reactions (X)
Uncertainty outside world (XROW)
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Forecasting errors
CPB: main errors in variables
external world
Errors in estimated parameters
Bias omitted variables
Lack of fiscal policy rules, difficult to
estimate
Unclear monetary policy rules
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4. Use of Models in Economic Policy
W = W(Y*,X,p)
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Trial and Error
Discussion between model builder
and experts
Discussion between model builder
and policy maker
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Trial and error procedure
1. Policy maker suggests particular set of
instrument values
2. Analysis and translation into model
input by model builder
3. Model results supplemented with expert
knowledge
4. Overall results translated for policy
maker
5. Discussion between model builder,
expert and policy maker
6. Revised set of instrument values 32
Preferences through trial
and error process
Policy makers unlikely to provide
well-defined welfare function,
because they:
Do not have the technical skills
They don’t know the consequences
of their preferences
They are not willing to reveal their
preferences
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Preferences through trial
and error
Confrontation with likely outcome of
concrete policy proposal forces them
to
Formulate better set of instrument
values
Define additional targets
Think about additional conditions
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Requirements model builder
Be clear and comprehensive in his
reporting
Show trade offs between objectives
Show trade offs between instrument
values
Show feasibility of various policy
packages
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5. Usefulness of Economic Models in
Economic Policy making
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Usefulness of Economic Models in
Economic Policy making
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Usefulness of Economic Models in
Economic Policy making
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Usefulness of Economic Models in
Economic Policy making
Accountability
Models and model calculations can
be checked by 3rd parties
Models and model calculations can
be compared with competing
alternatives
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5. Czech example
Current situation:
Quarterly (econometric) model
Sector model for MIT
Sector model for MoF
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Similarities and Differences
Similarities:
Similar theoretical basis
• Optimising behaviour economic agents
• Supply and demand in relevant markets
• Similar Production functions
• Mark-up in prices
Consistent accounting framework
Dynamic
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Similarities and Differences
Differences:
Macro <-> sector
Quarter <-> annual
Calibration/estimation <->
calibration
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Use of Models in Czech
Republic
Quarterly model:
Short- to Medium-Term forecasting
Fiscal policies (aggregate)
Sensitivity analysis exogenous
variables
Sensitivity analysis policy options
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Use of Models in Czech
Republic
Sector Model:
Long-term forecasting
Fiscal policies -> sector impact
Sector policies
Sensitivity analysis -> sector impact
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Use of Models in Czech
Republic
It would be useful to confront model
forecasts and simulations with expert
knowledge in systematic way
It would be useful to systematically use
the models in a trial and error setting as
described above
It would be useful to systematically
compare the model simulations and
explain differences
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6. Some Conclusions - 1
Models useful for understanding
main economic mechanisms
Models useful in discussion on
economic policy packages
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Some Conclusions - 2
Models as basis for economic policy
preparation available
Modelling continuous activity
Continuous re-estimation of parameters
required
More discussions between model builders
and experts
More discussions between model
builders/experts and policy makers
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Some Conclusions - 3
Strengthening model building
departments
Procedures for use of models in
policy discussions
Further research
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