Sch.4.

Estimate Activity Duration

It is the process of estimating the number of work periods
needed to complete individual activities with estimated
resources.

The key benefit of this process is that it provides the amount

of time each activity will take to complete
Sch.4. Estimate Activity Duration
 Sch.4. Estimate Activity Duration
• Tools & Techniques
– Expert Judgment
– Analogous estimating
Analogous estimating is a technique for estimating the duration or cost of an
activity or a project using historical data from a similar activity or project.
Analogous estimating uses parameters from a previous, similar project, such
as duration, budget, size, weight, and complexity, more likely with
Rough Order of Magnitude
– Parametric estimating
Parametric estimating is an estimating technique in which parameter is used
to calculate cost or duration based on historical data.
(e.g., square footage in construction) to calculate an estimate for activity–
same like cost budget & project duration)
 Sch.4. Estimate Activity Duration

e.g. If the assigned resource is capable of installing 25 meters of

cable per hour, the duration required to install 1000 meters is 40
hours (1000 meters divided by 25 meters per hour)

 Homeowners report the average cost to build a

new house comes in at $300,000,which would put a 2000 square
foot home costing about $150 per square foot.
 Sch.4. Estimate Activity Duration
• Three-point estimates (PERT)
• Most likely ( tM). It is the normal time taken to complete an
activity, if the activity were frequently repeated under the same
conditions.
• Optimistic ( tO ). The activity duration based on analysis of the
best-case scenario for the activity.
• Pessimistic (tP ). The duration based on analysis of the worst-
case scenario for the activity
• Triangular distribution. tE = (tO + tM + tP) / 3
Beta distribution. tE = (tO + 4tM + tP) / 6
 PERT Formula and Example
PERT weighted average =
optimistic time + 4X most likely time + pessimistic time
6
Example:
PERT weighted average =
200 workdays + 4 X 235 workdays + 250 workdays = 231.66 days
6
where:
optimistic time= 200 days
most likely time = 235 days pessimistic time = 250
days

Therefore, you’d use 231.66 days when using PERT for the
above example.
 Types of Estimates

Type WBS Time to

Estimating General
Relationship
Method Accuracy

Parametric ROM Top down + 35 % Days/Weeks/Months

Analogy Budget Top down + 15 % Days/Weeks/Months

Engineering Definitive Bottom Up +5% Days/Weeks/Months

 Sch.4. Estimate Activity Duration
• Bottom up Estimating
Bottom-up estimating is a method of estimating project duration or cost by
aggregating the estimates of the lower-level components of the WBS. When an
activity’s duration cannot be estimated with a reasonable degree of confidence,
the work within the activity is decomposed into more detail. The detail durations
are estimated.
Reserve analysis
Reserve analysis is used to determine the amount of contingency and
management reserve needed for the project. Duration estimates may
include contingency reserves, sometimes referred to as schedule reserves, to
account for schedule uncertainty. Contingency reserves are the estimated
duration within the schedule baseline, which is allocated for identified risks
that are accepted. Contingency reserves are associated with the knowoable-
unknowns, which may be estimated to account for this unknown amount of
rework.
 Sch.4. Estimate Activity Duration
Reserve analysis continued
Management reserves are intended to address the unknowable-
unknowns that can affect a project. Management reserve is not included in
the schedule baseline, but it is part of the overall project duration
requirements.
 Output: Activity Duration Estimates
• Activity duration estimates are likely number of work periods
that will be required to complete a schedule activity. Activity
duration estimates include some indication of the range of
possible results. For example:
• 2 weeks ±2 days to indicate that the schedule activity will take at
least eight days and no more than twelve (assuming a 5-day
workweek).
• 15 percent probability of exceeding three weeks to indicate a high
probability—85 percent—that the schedule activity will take three
weeks or less.
 Output: Basis of Estimates
• Documentation of the basis of the estimate (i.e., how it was
developed),
• Documentation of all assumptions made
• Documentation of any known constraints
• Indication of the confidence level of the final estimate
• Documentation of individual project risks influencing this
estimate
• Indication of the range of possible estimates (e.g., ±10%) to
indicate that the duration is estimated between a range of
values
 Sch.5 Develop Schedule
Develop Schedule is the process to create a schedule model
for project execution and monitoring and controlling
while analyzing activity sequences, durations, resource
requirements, and schedule constraints.

The key benefit of this process is that it generates a

schedule model with planned dates for completing
project activities
Sch.5. Develop Schedule
 Sch.5. Develop Schedule
• Tools & Techniques
– Critical Path Method
– Resource Leveling (Resource Optimizing Techniques)
– Data Analysis Techniques(What-if Scenario Analysis & Simulation using probability
distribution)
– Applying leads and lags
– Schedule compression
– Scheduling tool (Project Management Software Applications)
• Output
• Schedule baseline
– Project Schedule
– Schedule Data
– Project Calendar (working days & shifts available for work)
– Project document updates
 Critical Path Method
Activities Precedence Duration in days

Start - -

A - 10

B A 25

C A 15

D A 20

E B,C 5

F E 15

G E 10

H F,G,D 20

Finish H -
 Project Network Diagrams: AON

ACTIVITY EARLY START: When can you start the

ES Duration
EF activity at the earliest?
S
L EARLY FINISH: When can you finish
the activity at the earliest?
A ACTIVITY
C
K
Identifier LATE FINISH: When can you finish the
activity at the latest?
Total
LS Float/Slack LF LATE START: When can you start the
activity at the latest?

The CRITICAL
CRITICALPATH PATHofofaaproject
projectisisthe
thesequence
SLACK:The
SLACK: Thetime
timefor
for of activitiesof
sequence that determine
activities thatthe project completion
determine the project
which
which the project
the project activity date – any delay
completion – any
date in an activity
delay or activities
in an activity or
can be delayed
activity can bewithout
delayed comprising
activities comprising the critical paththe
the critical path will delay willproject
delay by
delaying the Project
(also called float) a corresponding
the project by a amount of time amount of time
corresponding
Duration (also called
float)
 T&T: Critical path Method

s E

Total Float/Slack: The amount of time that a schedule activity can be delayed without
delaying the project finish date or violating a schedule constraint
Exercise
Business Information Center

Activity Description Preceding Activity Activity

Duration

A Approval of Application None 5

B Construction Plans A 15

C Traffic Study A 10

D Service Availability Check A 5

E Staff Report B, C 15

F Commission Approval B, C, D 10

G Construction F 170

H Occupancy E, G 35
 Project Network Diagram Example
(Determining Slack and the Critical Path)
 T&T: Schedule Compression
Crashing
Schedule compression technique, where Time trades for money. It does not
always produce a viable alternative and can result in increased cost and Risk.
Fast tracking
Schedule compression technique in which activities or phases normally done
in series are performed in parallel for at least a portion of their duration.
Fast tracking can result in rework and increased risk
T&T: Resource Smoothing vs. Resource Leveling

• Resource smoothing is used when the time constraint

takes priority. The objective is to complete the work by
the required date.
In other words, activities may only be delayed within
their total float. The completion date may not be delayed..
Resource smoothing may not be able to optimize all
resource
T&T: Resource Smoothing vs. Resource Leveling
• Resource leveling is used when the availability of
resources are paramount. Resource leveling can be used
when shared or critically required resources are available
only at certain times or in limited quantities A technique
in which start and finish dates are adjusted based on
resource constraints with the goal of balancing the
demand for resources with the available supply
• What about Critical path in both cases??
• Critical Path will be changed in Resource Leveling
while not change in Resource Smoothing
Resource Leveling
 Output: Schedule Baseline
Schedule baseline is the approved version of a schedule that
can be changed only through formal change control procedures
and is used as a basis for comparison to actual results.
It is accepted and approved by the appropriate stakeholders as
the schedule baseline with baseline start dates and baseline
finish dates.

The schedule baseline is a component of the project

management plan
 Output: Project Schedule
• Project Schedule is the document a Project Manager uses to track the schedule
progress such as activities completed, activities in progress, actual start and
finish dates, percentage complete, hours spent, resource allocations etc.
Presented in the form of:
• ‒Milestone Chart ‒Gantt or Bar Chart
 How would you compare
Schedule Baseline and Project
Schedule ???
Schedule Baseline vs. Project Schedule
 Output: Develop Project Schedule
– Schedule Data
– The schedule data is used for the project schedule model is
the collection of information for describing and controlling
the schedule. The schedule data includes, at a minimum, the
schedule milestones, schedule activities, activity attributes

– Project Calendar
– working days & shifts available for work, can be modified
upon requirements
Thank you

Any Questions