Forecasting and Predictive Analytics of Flood using Data Mining

By
N.PRIYA DHARSHINI
1515102087
 CONTENTS

 Abstract
 Predictive Analytics in Flood
 Data Set Used for Analytics
 Forecasting model
 Measures
 Proposed Methodology
 Data Flow Diagram
 Flood Forecasting and Warnings
 Flood Frequency Analysis
 Conclusion
 Abstract

 Flood, the most important problem in hydrology due to its critical

contribution in reducing economic and life losses.
 This system focuses on application of the Time Series Data Mining to
prediction of floods.
 Reliability of forecasts has increased in the recent years due to
improvements in data collection through satellite observations, and
advancements in knowledge and algorithms for analysis
 Time Series Data Mining methodology combines chaos theory and
data mining to characterize and predict complex, non-periodic and
chaotic time series Flood Forecasting.
 Predictive Analytics in Flood
Data
All datasets used in our analysis fall in to the category of open data and
are available free of charge. They can be divided into three main groups:
 datasets available for direct download online
 datasets available for public use, but where prior registration or
permission of the data officer is required
 datasets contained in commercial databases, but accessible via
application program interfaces or by crawling Internet resources
Data Set Used for Analytics
Forecasting model
 Real time data collection
Data provided by the Institute Data from other Institutions
Terrestrial Remote
stations systems National International

INTEGRATED INFORMATION SYSTEM

Telecommunication network

Verification, completion and archiving of the real time data

Data
Time series of the real time data
storage Other data and information

Data processing

Meteorological models Hydrological models

Presentation and distribution of data, information, forecasts and warnings

USERS
 Measures

 Completion and upgrading of the existing data acquisition system,

terrestrial stations, satellite data receiver, weather radars, lightning
system, telemetry system
 Integrated information system - better software and hardware to run
flood forecasting which manages the data between all components
 Database system
 Internet portal - data and informations deliver to relevant stakeholders
 Meteorological and hydrologic forecasting models
 Measures
 Analysis of the existing data acquisition system, terrestrial stations,
satellite data receiver, weather radars, lightning system, telemetry
system
 Integrated information system - better software and hardware to run
flood forecasting which manages the data between all components
 Database system
 Internet portal - data and informations deliver to relevant stakeholders
 Proposed Methodology

As an original piece of work, identify an initial case study to use, and

carry out the following steps

 Collect and analyse data

 Calibrate model and validate model, subject to data availability
 Analyse model output
 Identify how model can be improved or be adapted for further uses
 Compare output from different models
D
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F
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Flood Frequency Analysis
 Flood Frequency Analysis
12

10 Observed
Lognormal

8
Frequency

0
136,000 196,610 284,231 410,901 594,023 858,755 1,241,467

Discharge (ft 3/sec)

 CONCLUSION

 Concluding, this research leads to the development of a decision

making tool for planning .
 Flood mitigation and evacuation procedures for use by planning
authorities.
 Based on location and the possible impact , the planners can make a
choice in selecting the parameters for Time series Data Mining.
THANK YOU!