Training on Demand Forecasting and Integrated

Resource Planning

Day 2 – Session 5b
Demand Forecasting – Short Term
Short-term Demand Forecasting

Key Purpose:
• Market operations plan and execution (CPPA)
• Unit dispatch plan and execution (NTDC)
• Demand-side plan and execution (load shedding, DR, self gen) (NTDC and
DISCOs)
• Generation bidding plan and execution (GENCOs)
• Wholesale trading plan and execution (DISCOs)
Time horizon:
• Month and Week ahead
• Day ahead
• Hours/ sub hours ahead

Slide 2
Short-term Demand Forecasting

• Perhaps the most difficult forecast

• Small differences can cause big operational issues
• A number of factors, not included in FC modelling, can contribute
to sudden change in demand
• Weather conditions (temp, humidity), together with special
occasion/circumstance can result in unexpected changes
• Some regression models use different set of variables;
• Temperature and humidity, time of day, day of week, day of month, month
of year
• Typically 8,760 hours of data is used to finetune reg model

Slide 3
Short-term Demand Forecasting

• Interval meter data tend to result in improved accuracy of all

types of ST FC methods
• Regression
• Trending
• Load Research
• Pattern recognition
• PMS (???)
• Larger volumes of data (interval meter data) allows for using
advanced techniques;
• Neural Networks, AI, Fuzzy logic, Machine Learning

Slide 4
Short-term Demand Forecasting
(Regression)

• Need to have different model than annual PD FC model

• Model variable are likely to include;
• Temperature and humidity,
• Time of day, day of week, type of day, day of month, month of year
• Special day
• Model development will require historic data (hourly and sub-
hourly), at national and PC levels, which is unlikely to be available

Slide 5
Short-term Demand Forecasting
(Trending, Load Research, Pattern Recognition)

• Trend forecasting, using 24 hr day as seasonality, with exponential

smoothing
• Load Research, can forecast 24 hour demand for specific day(s), if
energy forecasts are available
• Pattern recognition, can forecast very short-term demand FC e.g.
next 1 hour to 15 min.
• However, all require historic interval meter data!!!

Slide 6
Short-term Demand Forecasting

Major Issues:
• Typical forecasting methods, FC average/typical value
• Short-term forecasting requires better precision than average/typical
• Need to identify factors that affect demand significantly, if different from
average/typical conditions e.g. weather conditions
• Requires adjustment to average/typical forecasts, as per the value of
special factor e.g. weather condition on day of forecast
• For that, precise relationship between demand and special factor need to
be established e.g. for every 1oC rise in temp the demand increases by
xMW
• Requires separate regression modelling with historic data

Slide 7
Load Research Data and Usage

• See LR data and how to manipulate for diagnostics and DF

Slide 8
Short-term Demand Forecasting
(Recommendations)

• Consider adopting aggressive load research program

• Under USAID, distribution improvement program, it appears a
large number of interval meters were installed
• If so, DISCO IT departments can use the data from such meters
into a LR facility
• In the meanwhile consider development of short-term FC
regression model
• However, each DISCO is likely to have different model, due to
different levels of weather dependent loads
• Availability of historic data shall still remain the major concern

Slide 9