CHAPTER 2

Probability Distribution

Binomial
Poisson
Normal

1 Lecture 2
 Introduction
o Remember?

Discrete Continuous

 Random variable with a finite o Random variable with an

(or countably infinite) range interval (either finite or infinite)
 Examples: of real no. for its range
– No. of scratches on a surface o Examples:
– Proportion of defective parts o Electrical current
among 1000 tested
o Length
– Number of transmitted bits
received in error o Pressure
o Temperature
o Time
o Voltage
2 o Weight Lecture 2
 Binomial

o Consider the following random experiments and

random variables:
o Flip a coin 10 times. Let X = number of heads obtained.
o A worn machine tool produces 1.0% defective parts. Let
X = number of defective parts in the next 25 parts
produced.
o Each sample of air has 10% chance of containing a
particular rare molecule. Let X = the number of air
samples that contain the rare molecule in the next 18
samples analyzed.

3 Lecture 2
 Binomial : Characteristics

 Consisted a series of repeated, random trials;

 Random variable in each case is a count of the
number of trials that meet a specified criterion, X;
 Summarized as resulting a success or a failure;
 A trial with only two possible outcomes is called
Bernoulli trial.

4 Lecture 2
 Binomial

 A random experiment consists of n Bernoulli trial such

that
– The trials are independent
– Each trial results in only two possible outcomes, labeled as
“success” and “failure”
– The probability of a success in each trial, denoted as p,
remains constant
 The rv X that equals the number of trials that result in
a success has a binomial rv with parameters 0  p  1
and n  1, 2,... The probability mass function of X is :

5 f ( x)   
n
x p (1  p )
x n x x  0,1,..., n
Lecture 2
 Binomial : Examples

 A manufacturing plant labels items as either

defective or acceptable
 A firm bidding for contracts will either get a
contract or not
 A marketing research firm receives survey
responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will not
buy”
 New job applicants either accept the offer or
reject it
6 Lecture 2 6
 Binomial : Probability Distribution
Function

n!
P X   p 1  p 
X n X

X ! n  X  !
P  X  : probability of X successes given n and p
X : number of "successes" in sample  X  0,1, , n
p : the probability of each "success"
n : sample size

7 Lecture 2 7
 Binomial : Distribution
Characteristics
 Mean
–   E  X   np P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
.6
.4
– Example: .2

  np  5 .1  .5
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

8 Lecture 2 8
 Binomial : Probability Distribution
Function

 Variance and standard deviation

  np 1  p 
2

  np 1  p 
 Example:

  np 1  p   5 .11  .1  .6708

9 Lecture 2 9
 Binomial : Example 1
Are the conditions met for using the Binomial model?
A factory produces a particular type of computer
chip. Over a long period the number that are
defective has been found to be 15%. What is the
probability that in a sample of 20 taken at
random, 19 are perfect?

10
10 Lecture 2
 Binomial : Solution

Solution: Let X be the r.v. “number of defective chips”

So, X ~ B( 20, 0  15)

P ( X  1) 20C1 (0 15)(0  85)19  0 137

If I had written
Let X be the r.v. “ number of perfect chips”
Then, X ~ B( 20, 0  85) and I would want P ( X  19) 11
11 Lecture 2
 Binomial : Exercise

The probability that a patient fails to recover from a

particular operation is 0.1. Suppose that eight patients
having this operation are selected at random. Answer
the following questions.
a. What is the probability that at most one patient will
not recover? (0.8131)
b. What is the probability that at least 2 but no more
than 3 patients will not recover? (0.1819)
c. What is the expected number of patients that will not
recover? (0.8) 12
12 Lecture 2
 Poisson

 Given an interval of real numbers, assume events occur at

random throughout the interval. If the interval can be partitioned
into subintervals of small enough length such that
– The probability of more than one event in a subinterval is zero
– The probability of one event in a subinterval is the same for all
subintervals and proportional to the length of the subinterval, and
– The event in each subinterval is independent of other subintervals,
the random experiment is called a Poisson process
 The rv X that equals the number of events in the interval is a
Poisson rv with parameter 0   and the probability mass function
of X is

13 Lecture 2
 Poisson

e   x
f ( x)  x  0,1, 2,...
x!

 If X is a Poisson rv with parameter  then

  E( X )    V (X )  
2

14 Lecture 2
 Poisson : WHEN TO APPLY?

– You wish to count the number of times an event

occurs in a given interval
– The probability that an event occurs in the interval is
the same for all intervals of equal size
– The number of events that occur in one interval is
independent of the number of events that occur in
the other intervals
– The average number of events per interval or unit is
 (lambda)

15 Lecture 2 15
 Poisson : Distribution

 Poisson process
– Discrete events in an “interval”
– The probability of success is
independent from interval to
interval
– e.g.: The number of customers arriving in 15 minutes
– e.g.: The number of defects per case of light bulbs

16 Lecture 2 16
 Poisson : Probability Distribution
Function

e   X
P X  
X!
P  X  : probability of X "successes" given 
X : number of "successes" per unit
 : expected (average) number of "successes"
e : 2.71828 (base of natural logs)

17 Lecture 2 17
 Poisson : Example

Find the probability of four customers arriving in

three minutes when the mean is 3.6.

e3.6 3.64
P X    .1912
4!

18 Lecture 2 18
 Poisson : Graph
0.70

Graphically: 0.60

 = .50 0.50

= P(x) 0.40

X 0.50
0.30
0 0.6065
0.20
1 0.3033
2 0.0758 0.10

3 0.0126 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
4 0.0016
5 0.0002 x
6 0.0000
P(X = 2) = .0758
7 0.0000
19 Lecture 2 19
 Poisson : Example 1

On average, a household receives 9.5 telemarketing

phone calls per week.

What is the probability that a randomly selected

household receives exactly 6 telemarketing phone
calls during a given week.

Let x be the number of telemarketing phone calls

received in a given week

20 Lecture 2 20
 Poisson : Solution

f(x) = e - x x= 6  = 9.5
x!
-9.5 9.5 6
f(6) = e
6!
= 0.00007485 · 735,091.8906 / 720

≈ 0. 0764
21 Lecture 2 21
 Poisson : Example 2

A washing machine in a laundromat breaks down an

average of 3 times a month. Find the probability that
during the next month this machine will have
a) Exactly two breakdowns b) at most one breakdown
Let  be the mean number of break downs per month

and let x be the actual number of breakdowns per month

for this machine.
Then  = 3
22 Lecture 2 22
 x
a) f ( X )  e 
x!
2
3
P( x  2)  f (2)  e 3
2!
9
 0.04979 
2
b)  0.2240
P( x  0 or x  1)  P( x  0)  P( x  1)
 3 0
  31

 e    e  
3
  3

 0!   1! 
 0.04979(1)  0.04979(3)
23  0.1992 Lecture 2
23
 Poisson : Exercise

 The number of fish passing an automated

counting station each minute is known to
follow a Poisson distribution. If a total of 200
fish passed the counter in 50 minutes what is
the probability of observing 3 or more fish in
the next minute. (0.7619)

24 Lecture 2 24
 Continuous Probability Distributions

25 Lecture 2 25
 Normal : Density Curve

 A density curve is a smooth function meant

to approximate a histogram.
 The area under a density curve is one.
 Mean of density curve is point at which the
curve would balance.
 For symmetric density curves, balance point
(mean) and the median are the same.

26 Lecture 2 26
 Normal : Density Curve

27 Lecture 2 27
 Normal : Properties

28 Lecture 2 28
 Normal : Characteristics
 bell-shaped
 symmetrical about the mean
 total area under curve = 1
 approximately 68% of distribution is within one
standard deviation of the mean
 approximately 95% of distribution is within two
standard deviations of the mean
 approximately 99.7% of distribution is within 3
standard deviations of the mean
 Mean = Median = Mode

29 Lecture 2 29
 Normal : Distribution

A variable is said to be normally distributed or to have a

normal distribution if its distribution has the shape of a
normal curve.
30 Lecture 2 30
 Normal : Distribution

1  x 
2
 PDF:   
1 2  
f ( x)  e
 2
 Shape:
 Bell-Shaped and Symmetric
 Mean, median and mode are equal

31 µ
Lecture 2 31
 Normal : Characterization

 The distribution is
determined by the mean, ,
and the standard deviation,
.
 The  controls the center
and  controls the spread.

32 Lecture 2 32
 Normal : Empirical Rule
About 68% of the area lies
within 1 standard deviation
68% of the mean

3 2    2 3

About 95% of the area lies
within 2 standard
deviations
About 99.7% of the area lies within 3
standard deviations of the mean
33 Lecture 2 33
 Standard Normal Distribution

Using z- scores any normal distribution can be

transformed into the standard normal
distribution.

34 Lecture 2 34
 Standard Normal Distribution

 The standard normal distribution has mean = 0 and

standard deviation =1.

35 Lecture 2 35
 Normal Table Usage

 What proportion of standard normal distribution values Z

are less than 1.40?
That is, P(Z < 1.40) = ?
 Answer : 0.9192 or 91.92 percent of values.

36 Lecture 2 36
 Standard Normal Distribution

 P( 0 < Z < 1.40) = ?

 Answer:

37 Lecture 2 37
 Example

 P( Z < - 2.15) = ?

38 Lecture 2 38
 Normal Table Usage

 P(0.64 < Z < 1.23) = ?

Ans:
P(Z<1.23) – P(Z < .64)
= 0.8907 - 0.7389
= 0.1518

 P(Z > 2.24) = ?

39 Lecture 2 39
 Z-Score Formula

 Any normal distribution with mean=m and standard

deviation= sd, can be converted into a standard normal
Z distribution by the following transformation:

X 
Z


40 Lecture 2 40
 Example

 X = The SAT score of a randomly chosen

student. X has N(μ=1019, σ=209).
 What percent of all students had SAT scores
of at least 820? That is,
P( X > 820) = ?

41 Lecture 2 41
 Normal : Example

 Calorie intake for drivers averages 2821 cals

per day with sd 436.
 What proportion of drivers have calorie
intakes, X, less than 2000 calories per day?
P(X < 2000)?

42 Lecture 2 42
 Normal : Solution

 What proportion of drivers consume between

2000 and 2500 cals per day? P(2000<X<2500)?
2000  2821 X   2500  2821
P(2000  X  2500)  P(   )
436  436
 P(1.88  Z  0.74)
 0.2296  .0301
 0.1995

43 Lecture 2 43
 Normal : Exercise

General Hospital's patient account division has compiled

data on the age of accounts receivables. The data
collected indicate that the age of the accounts follows a
normal distribution with mean 28 days and standard
deviation 8 days.

(i) What proportion of the accounts are between 20

and 40 days old? (0.7745)
(ii) What proportion of the accounts are less than 30
days old? (0.5987)
44 Lecture 2 44
 References

 Montgomery, D.C. and Runger G.C. (2007). Applied

Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 4th Ed. John
Wiley & Sons, Inc.

 Miller, I and Miller, M (2004). John E. Freund’s

Mathematical Statistics with Applications, 7th Ed. Pearson
Prentice Hall.

45 Lecture 2