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Gaurav Jain(FT11125)
GROUP 9
Vaishali Singh (FT11370)
Kiran Muley (FT11425)
Nirmaan Parekh (FT11436)
Porag Dutta (FT11438)
Pravin Patil (FT11440)
Rachna Saini(FT11443)
Vanshika (FT11471)
Problem
◦ Identification of a forecasting techniques which can
predict the demand for existing and new products.
Issues
◦ Ease of using forecasting process
◦ Reliability of the sales forecast
◦ Impact of occasional price promotions
◦ Use of economic information to facilitate forecasts
◦ Methods to forecast demand of new product
Wilkins deals in two products PVB and fire
valves, the two products have distinct
demand patterns and hence their forecasting
methods should be different.
Demand Pattern for PVB Demand Pattern for Fire Valve
140,000 700
120,000 600
100,000 500
80,000 400
40,000 200
20,000 100
0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
The demand data for PVB valve displays trend
and seasonality so we use Winter’s model
(Trend and seasonality corrected exponential
smoothing) to forecast future demand.
Summary of results
◦ Forecast for 1st Quarter’2005 = 45,182 units ,
current forecasting methods yield forecast value of
53,560 units. Actual sales = 48,159 units
◦ MAD = 3,346 units, MAPE = 5.33
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
Demand
60,000 Forecast
40,000
20,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
600
500
400
Demand
300 Forecast
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16