Economic Prosperity and Resilience

In the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints

Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D.

April 2011 – UN Dialogue on “Harmony with Nature”
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors

Global Footprint
--------------------------- = 1.5
Global Biocapacity
The Ecological Footprint

CARBON footprint
 Accounting Framework for
Ecological Services
Biocapacity:
How much
bioproductive area
is available to us?

Ecological Footprint:
How much bioproductive
area do we demand?
 The Basic Equation

Amount per year

Area = -------------------------
Yield

Translate area from ha into global ha…

Biocapacity
per person

Ecological Footprint
 Italy
Ecological Footprint

Biocapacity
per person
Italy’s relative GDP per
capita (compared to
World)

Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit

A special report on debt
Re:
A better way

The rich world should

worry about growth-
promoting reforms
more than short-term
fiscal austerity
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005

DE BY
AT BE DK

ES SK FR FI GR

NL HU IT IR PO

PT CZ UK RO RU

RS CH SE UA
Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards)

Annual deficit adds up to a

global biocapacity debt
Mathis’ life UN’s Most Moderate Scenario
Preparing for resource
constraints is in the most direct
self-interest of cities and
countries. (much more so than for
individuals or companies…)

mathis@footprintnetwork.org
 offical national gov Footprint studies

we’re working on national govs

WBCSD
UNDP
EP and EC
UNEP Green Econ.
SEEA (?)

(2011)
 Summary
• The planet has limits. Do you know
how much biocapacity you have?
and how much you use?

• Blindness costs lives & opportunities.

• Link to economic stability and

competitiveness

mathis@footprintnetwork.org
 Ecological Footprint
per person

Deficit

Biocapacity per person

3.00
2007
Food Housing
2.50 Mobility Goods
Services Government
gha per capita

2.00 GFC Other

1.50

ITALY 1.00

0.50

0.00
Cropland Grazing Land Forest Land Fishing Carbon Built-up Land
Grounds Uptake Land
 PER CAPITA
/ PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTION
RESOURCE
EFFICIENCY
= ECOLOGICAL
FOOTPRINT
(DEMAND)

DIFFERENCE BETW.

Five Factors BIOCAPACITY

DEMAND AND
BIOCAP. SUPPLY

BIO-
PRODUCTIVITY PER CAPITA
AREA
= BIOCAPACITY
x / POPULATION
(SUPPLY)
WBCSD Vision 2050 - Who’s in?

WBCSD Vision 2050 24

 Sustainable (fits on one planet?)
Measuring “sustainable development”

development HDI
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Africa
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005

Alge. CM
AO BF CG

CI EG ET GH KE

MG MW ML MA MZ

NE NG ZA SD SN

TZ UG ZM ZW
Shrinking Increasing
Biocapacity Ecological
Credit and Social
Instability
Sustainability wedges for ending overshoot by 2050 (WBCSD)

15
NEW! MRIO (GTAP7 based)
covering 93 countries (+ 20 regions)
• Consumption – break down national total
into 57 consumption categories

• Import – which countries do these 57 cats

come from?

• Export – in which countries do exports

get consumed?
 Consumption Footprint for
Cropland in gha: Switzerland GFCF HH GOV TOTAL
Raw milk 9,701 249,538 64 259,303
Wool, silk-worm cocoons 397 5,571 4 5,972
Forestry 155 3,570 18 3,742
Fishing 23 2,553 2 2,579
Coal 0 1 0 1
Oil 0 0 0 0
Gas 0 776 0 776
Minerals nec 10 1,760 3 1,773
Bovine meat products 10 91,870 367 92,248
Meat products nec 20 277,257 3,216 280,493
Vegetable oils and fats 24 266,008 3,404 269,436
Dairy products 26 331,746 81 331,853
Processed rice 1 29,735 61 29,797
Sugar 7 18,072 73 18,153
Food products nec 112 561,281 469 561,862
Beverages and tobacco products 31 367,213 65 367,308
Textiles 2,350 121,539 767 124,656
Wearing apparel 187 391,542 142 391,870
Leather products 2 127,449 82 127,533
Wood products 454 14,732 1 15,187