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IV Conclusions
2
Introduction
3
Introduction: Global liquidity and low interest
rates
-1.0% 4000
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-95
Mar-96
Mar-97
4
Introduction: Investors' risk appetite
jun-00
jun-05
jun-95
oct-03
oct-98
feb-02
ago-04
feb-97
abr-01
abr-06
ago-99
abr-96
5
Introduction: In general, improved
fundamentals
6
Introduction: : Compressed EM sovereign
spreads
1800 150
EMBI BAA-AAA
1600 140
130
1400 Sound macro fundamentals, high
120
1200 commodity prices and global
110
growth, compressed EM spreads
1000 100
to historical levels, below 200
90
800 bp.
80
600
70
400 60
200 50
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
7
I Introduction
IV Conclusions
8
Focus on equity flows and preliminary results
Many researchers studied FDI, bonds or reserves, but
much less efforts have been dedicated to explain
private equity flows.
Many researchers studied FDI, bonds or reserves, but much
less efforts have been dedicated to explain private equity
flows.
We are interested in Private Equity Flows
We use equity flows data from EPFR. Data are collected from
a universe of 12,000 international, emerging markets and
US funds, with more than $5.7 trillions in assets.
Investors are worldwide based and not only in US.
9
Focus on equity flows and preliminary results
10
Focus on equity flows and preliminary results
Preliminary regression results
11
I Introduction
IV Conclusions
12
VAR: Cumulative impulse response
analysis
A negative shock in global interest rates is associated with increased cumulative flows in Latin
America, whereas for Asia we observe a slight decrease.
13
VAR: Cumulative impulse response
analysis
Even though the results are mixed, the evidence for Asia gives support
for the expected return “chasing hypothesis”.
14
VAR: Cumulative impulse response
analysis
Panel C give supports to the hypothesis that capital flows are, in part,
momentum driven. In the short-run Latin America could suffer a slightly
decrease, but in the long--run both regions will be benefited.
15
VAR: Cumulative impulse response analysis
17
I Introduction
IV Conclusions
18
Conclusions
Even though local factors have been improving during the last
decade, the role of global factors is more important.
That is, equity capital can flow into (or out) of a country for
reasons other than local fundamentals.
Risk appetite can have an important role
We found that positive returns shocks are followed by
increased short-term equity capital flows, indicating a
momentum effect (Bohn and Tesar 1996).
A negative shock in global interest rates is associated with
increased cumulative flows to Latin America.
A negative shock in global interest rates will temporally
reduce the cost of capital, but in the long-run this effect is
reversed.
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