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IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON

GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5oC:


IMPACT AND ADAPTATION

Rizaldi Boer
Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in
Southeast Asia and Pacific, Institut Pertanian Bogor
(CCROM SEAP IPB)

Solo, 19 Februari 2019


Global Warming of 1.5°C
An IPCC special report on the impacts of
global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial
levels and related global greenhouse gas
emission pathways, in the context of
strengthening the global response to the
threat of climate change, sustainable
development, and efforts to eradicate
poverty.
Where are we now?
• Since pre-industrial
times, human
activities have caused
approximately 1.0°C of
global warming
• Current [CO2] has reached
400 ppm
• At current rate, global
warming would reach
1.5°C between 2030
and 2052 (IPCC, 2018)
• Already seeing
consequences for
Averaging datasets and showing inter-dataset range

Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)


Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)
Placing 0.5°C of warming in context: significant changes in weather extremes already
observed between 1960-1979 and 1991-2010

1991-2010

0.5°C
1960-1979
Estimating the magnitude of anthropogenic and natural contributions to global temperature
change from observations
Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)
Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)
Anthropogenic global warming has reached 1°C, with a likely range of 0.8 to 1.2°C, and is
increasing at 0.2°C per decade
Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)

1.0°C
1.0°C
Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase
at the current rate

1.5°C
Quota emission for CO2 for
1.5oC?
Probability of not
770 Gt CO2e exceeding 1.5oC: 50%

Probability of not
570 Gt CO2e exceeding 1.5oC: 66%

Quota reduced by
Current rate of 100 Gt CO2 due to
emission: 42+3 Gt melting of
CO2e per year permaforst and
release of CH4
from wetland

Source: C1.3 SPM (2018)


Emission Reduction Target for CO2 for 1.5oC vs 2.0oC
• Emission reduction target to limit Emission Path toward 1.5oC
the increase of global temperature 45
not exceeding 1.5°C 40
– 2030: emission reduced below 45% of
35
the 2010’s emission

Emission (Gt CO2/year)


– 2050: emission has reached balance 30
(zero emission) 25
• Emission reduction target to limit 20
the increase of global temperature 15
not exceeding 2.0°C 10
– 2030: emission reduced below 20% of
the 2010’s emission 5
– 2050: emission rate about 2 tCO2e 0
per cap 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
– 2075: emission has reached balance
(zero emission) Source: Nature Climate Change 8:564-569 (2018)
SPM.3a: Global emissions
pathway characteristics toward 1.5oC
Time is important: reaching peak of emission asap
Achieving 1.5°C means a simple choice: faster immediate emission
reductions versus greater commitment to net CO2 removal after 2050
Achieving 1.5°C means a simple choice: faster immediate emission
reductions versus greater commitment to net CO2 removal after 2050
Achieving 1.5°C means a simple choice: faster immediate emission
reductions versus greater commitment to net CO2 removal after 2050
Achieving 1.5°C means a simple choice: faster immediate emission
reductions versus greater commitment to net CO2 removal after 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions
pathways
• National pledges are not enough to limit warming to
1.5°C
• Avoiding warming of more than 1.5°C would require
carbon dioxide emissions to decline substantially before
2030
• Limiting warming to 1.5°C would require changes on an
unprecedented scale

o Deep emissions cuts in all sectors


o A range of technologies
o Behavioural changes
o Increase investment in low carbon options
NDC INDONESIA
3,500 1,000,000
Forestry Agriculture IPPU Waste Energy 900,000 AFOLU
3,000 800,000
Emission (Mton CO2e)

700,000

Net Emission (Gg CO2e)


2,500
600,000

2,000 500,000
400,000
1,500 300,000
200,000
1,000 100,000
0
500 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
-100,000
- Source:
NDCBoer
BaU et al,NDC
2017
CM1 NDC CM2 DD BaU* DD
BAU BAU CM1 CM2
Figure 2. Net emission of BAU and mitigation scenarios of the NDC and
2010 2030 DD

NDC Critically insufficient

Highly insufficient

Insufficient
DD 2°C compatible
Source: Dewi et al, 2018 1.5°C Paris Agreement
compatible
17
Impacts of global warming 1.5°C as Compared
to• 2.0°C
Less extreme weather where people live, including extreme heat
• and rainfall
By 2100, global mean sea level rise will be around 10 cm lower but
may continue to rise for centuries
• 10 million fewer people exposed to risk of
• rising seas hundred million fewer people exposed to climate-
Up to several
related risk and susceptible to poverty by 2050
• Global population exposed to water shortages up to 50%
less
• Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice,
wheat
• Lower impact on biodiversity and species
• Lower risk to fisheries & the livelihoods that depend on
them
SPM.2: How the level of global warming effects risks associated
with the reasons for concern (RFCs) and selected natural,
managed and human systems.

• Explanatory presentation by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and Rachel


Warren

• Synthesizing the perspective of hundreds of studies on


complex patterns of impact and risk across many sectors.

• Assisting the reader in terms of deriving the key messages


with respect to how impacts and risks might be changing as a
result of global warming to 1.5oC.

• Addressing the question: What risks do we minimise by


restraining warming to 1.5oC as compared to 2.0oC?
BACKGROUND DEFINITIONS: REASONS FOR CONCERN (RFCS)
• RFC1 Unique and threatened systems: ecological and human systems that have
restricted geographic ranges constrained by climate related conditions and have high
endemism or other distinctive properties. Examples include coral reefs, the Arctic and its
indigenous people, mountain glaciers, and biodiversity hotspots.

• RFC2 Extreme weather events: risks/impacts to human health, livelihoods, assets, and
ecosystems from extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rain, drought and
associated wildfires, and coastal flooding.

• RFC3 Distribution of impacts: risks/impacts that disproportionately affect particular


groups due to uneven distribution of physical climate change hazards, exposure or
vulnerability.

• RFC4 Global aggregate impacts: global monetary damage, global scale degradation and
loss of ecosystems and biodiversity.

• RFC5 Large-scale singular events: are relatively large, abrupt and sometimes
irreversible changes in systems that are caused by global warming. Examples include
disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI)
vs. global mean warming (°C)

Reasons of
Concern

Knowledge
AR3 Today

2001

Smith et al., 2009. PNAS u. Fischlin, 2009

15.Oct.2010 Prof. Dr. Andreas Fischlin (IPCC Author) Environmental Systems Science, Systems Ecology ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI)
vs. global mean warming (°C)

Reasons of
Concern

Knowledge
AR5 Today

2007

Smith et al., 2009. PNAS u. Fischlin, 2009

15.Oct.2010 Prof. Dr. Andreas Fischlin (IPCC Author) Environmental Systems Science, Systems Ecology ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI)
vs. global mean warming (°C)

Reasons of
Concern

Knowledge
AR5 Today

2014

Smith et al., 2009. PNAS u. Fischlin, 2009

15.Oct.2010 Prof. Dr. Andreas Fischlin (IPCC Author) Environmental Systems Science, Systems Ecology ETH Zurich, Switzerland
How the level of global warming affects impacts and/or risks associated with Reasons for
Concern
How the level of global warming affects impacts and/or risks associated with
Reasons for Concern
Example 1: Coral Reefs
First back-to-back global mass bleaching and
mortality events (2016-2017; many authors
including Hughes et al 2017a,b; risks Frieler et
al, Donner et al irreversibility)

First global mass bleaching and mortality


event (1998; many authors, HG 1999,
Wilkerson et al 2000, Glynn et al 2000; some
recovery)

Mass coral bleaching reported (isolated


events, not global; Glynn 1983, others)

No reports of mass coral bleaching


Example 2: Terrestrial ecosystems
By 2.5°C, biome shifts and species range
losses escalate to very high levels –
adaptation options are very limited
(irreversible).
Key transition between 1.5oC to 2.0oC due to
extensive shifts of biomes (major ecosystem + 1.5 to 2.0oC (risk)
types) and a doubling or tripling of the number
of plants, animals or insects losing over half of
their climatically determined geographic ranges

Differences become much larger between


1.5oC and 2.0oC

No detection and attribution of impacts of global


warming on terrestrial ecosystems
Mean Temperature Change (oC)
Global Indonesia
6
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
Model mean global 5 RCP6.0
RCP8.5
temperature change Observation
for high emission 4
scenario CRP8.5 RCP8.5
3

2 RCP6.9
Model mean global RCP4.5
temperature 1
change for low RCP2.6
emission scenario
RCP2.6 0

-1
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
RCP
4.5
RCP
8.5
Economic Implication of Climate Change in Indonesia (no mitigation
and adaptation efforts)
• Two types of impact are considered: Emission Scenario SRESA2
– Market impact (on the agriculture sector Market Market+NonMarket Market+NM+Catastropic
and coastal zones); and
0
– Non-market impact (on health and 1 climate impact in the near-term
ecosystems) ‘Look at
2
view, it may not yet be seen as a very
– Risk of catastrophic (only ice melting, 3
excluding flash flood and others extreme urgent 4and high priority issue, but this will
events) put us5 at risk of getting significant loss
• Mean loss of 1.8% of gross domestic product later and 6 may lead to mal-adaptation and
7
threaten food security and sustainable
(GDP) by 2100 on an annual basis, if market 8
impact only, it is well above the world’s 0.6% development’ (Boer et al., 2013)
9
• With non-market impact, the loss increased to 10
6% and with inclusion of catastrophic it 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
increased to 7%, well above the world 2.2 and
2.6% respectively
Using PAGE model
• Early investment for adaptation about 0.2% of (Source: Suplachalasai et al. 2009)
GDP could avoid damage amounting to 1.9% of
the GDP by 2100 on annual basis
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SDGs
• Close links to United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs)
• Mix of measures to adapt to climate change and
reduce emissions can have benefits for SDGs
• National and sub-national authorities, civil
society, the private sector, indigenous peoples
and local communities can support ambitious
• action
International cooperation is a critical part of
limiting warming to 1.5°C

12
Level of relation between Climate Actions
and SDGs (modified from Kainuma et al. 2017)
SYNERGY
Reduce poverty through
creation of jobs opportunities
based on SFM, alternative
livelihoods to reduce reliance
of forest contribute to
mitigation and reducing
vulnerability

TRADE OFF
SYNERGY End of hunger by increasing food
End of hunger by increasing food production  expansion of
production  expansion of agriculture land from forest
agriculture land using degraded conversion  increase emission
land (agroforestry)  reduce and increase vulnerability
vulnerability
Level of relation between Climate Actions
and SDGs (modified from Kainuma et al. 2017)
MULTIPLE SYNERGY
Increasing use of unproductive land
for development of agriculture
plantation
- Reduce emission
- Improve ES
- Increase income
- End of hunger
- Improve biodiversity
- Overall, they will reduce
vulnerability
Indicative linkages between mitigation options
and sustainable development using SDGs (the
linkages do not show costs and benefits)
Epilogue
• The increase of global mean temperature from pre-industrial era by 1.0°C
has caused significant changes in weather extremes
• Restraining warming to 1.5oC as compared to 2.0oC would significantly
reduce impact of climate change on many ecosystem and
livelihood
• Current national pledges (NDC) are not enough to limit
warming to 1.5°C
• Avoiding warming of more than 1.5°C would require carbon
dioxide emissions to decline substantially before 2030: Deep
emissions cuts in all sectors, a range of technologies, behavioural changes,
and increase investment in low carbon options
• Most of climate actions can be synergized with sustainable development
goals