Concept of Decision-Making Environment

√ Decision Making Under Certainty

√ Decision Making Under Risk

√ Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Certainty
 Certainty can be characterized as a state in which the
decision-maker possesses complete and perfect
knowledge regarding the impact of all of the available
alternatives.

 Describes that each alternative of decisions (activities)

has only one result (single pay off).

 Decision Making Under Risk
Decision making under Risk can be characterized as a state in
which the decision-maker has only imperfect knowledge and
incomplete information but is still able to assign probability
estimates to the possible outcomes of a decision.

Each set of decisions (activities) has a number of possible

outcomes and each possible outcome of the probability can be
calculated or can be known.
 Decision Making Under Risk
Stages of Making Decision Under Risk

1. Identify various types of actions that are available and

feasible.

2. Identify possible conditions and determine the probability

3. Determine the pay off combination of each action-

condition properly.
 Decision Making Under Risk
Decision Making Under Risk - Method

 Expected Value

 Expected Oportunity Loss

 Decision Tree
 Decision Making Under Risk
Expected Value

Expectation value is the sum of possible

values expected to occur against the probability of
each of the events that are uncertain.
 Decision Making Under Risk
Expected Value

 Seorang Pengusaha dihadapkan pada masalah penyimpanan uangnya, apakah

dalam bentuk deposito atau pembelian saham. Keuntungan yang akan diperoleh
bergantung pada laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi
meningkat dengan probabilitas 35% dan menurun 0,65%.
a. Jika memilih deposito potensi keuntungan yang akan diperoleh adalah Rp
250.000.000 pada saat pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat dan Rp 175.000.000 pada
saat pertumbuhan ekonomi menurun.

b. Jika dipilih membeli saham, potensi keuntungannya adalah Rp 350.000.000 pada

saat pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat dan Rp 125.000.000 pada saat menurun.
Dengan menggunakan nilai harapan payoff terbesar, keputusan mana yang harus
diambil?
 Decision Making Under Risk
Expected Value

𝐸𝑉𝑖 = ෍ 𝑅𝑖𝑗 × 𝑃𝑗
𝑗=1

EVi = Expected Value for actions i

Rij = Return for decision / action i for each situation
Pj = Probability of condition j will occur
 Alternatif
Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

Tindakan Meningkat (0,35) Menurun (0,65)

Deposito 250 175

Saham 350 125

Evd = 250 (0,35) + 175 (0,65) = 201,25

Evs = 350 (0,35) + 125 (0,65) = 203,75

 Decision Making Under Risk
Expected Oportunity Loss

 EOL is a cost that must be paid for not choosing certain

actions.

 EOL is constructed in the form of an Opportunity Loss

Table

 Opportunity loss for various conditions can be calculated

by finding the difference between each pay off in the
column for the best pay off in the same column.
Seorang pengusaha dihadapkan pada pilihan untuk menginvestasikan uangnya pada 3
perusahaan tambang nikel yaitu perusahaan A, B, dan C. Keuntungan yang akan
diperoleh bergantung pada kondisi pasar, kemungkinan kondisi pasar nikel masing-
masing adalah lesu = 25%, normal = 35%, dan menguntungkan 15%. Potensi
keuntungan (pay off) tiap perusahaan pada tiap kondisi disajikan pada tabel di bwah
ini:

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan

Tindakan 0,25 0,35 0,15

Investasi ke A 15000 37000 45000

Investasi ke B 10000 20000 25000

Investasi ke C 16000 36000 40000

 Expected Oportunity Loss

Opportunity Loss Table

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan

Tindakan 0,25 0,35 0,15

Investasi ke A 16000 - 15000 37000 - 37000 45000 - 45000

Investasi ke B 16000 -10000 37000 - 20000 45000 - 25000

Investasi ke C 16000 -16000 37000 - 36000 45000 - 40000

 Expected Oportunity Loss

Opportunity Loss Table

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan

Tindakan 0,25 0,35 0,15
Investasi ke A 1000 0 0
Investasi ke B 6000 17000 20000
Investasi ke C 0 1000 5000

Opportunity Loss

1. EOLA = 0,25 (1000) + 0,35 (0) + 0,15 (0) = 250

2. EOLB = 0,25 (6000) + 0,35 (17000) + 0,15 (20000) = 8200

3. EOLC = 0,25 (0) + 0,35 (1000) + 0,15 (5000) = 1100

 Decision Making Under Uncertainty

 Uncertainty is a state in which the decision-maker not

only has imperfect knowledge and incomplete
information but also the probability of each decision is
unknown.

 each series of decisions (activities) has a number of

possible results and each probable probability result
can not be known / determined.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

 Maximin

 Maximax

 Minimax / Regret

 Laplace
Seorang pengusaha dihadapkan pada pilihan untuk menginvestasikan uangnya pada 3
perusahaan tambang nikel yaitu perusahaan A, B, dan C. Keuntungan yang akan
diperoleh bergantung pada kondisi pasar, kemungkinan kondisi pasar nikel masing-
masing adalah lesu, normal, dan menguntungkan. Potensi keuntungan (pay off) tiap
perusahaan pada tiap kondisi disajikan pada tabel di bwah ini:

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan

Investasi ke A 15000 37000 45000

Investasi ke B 10000 20000 25000

Investasi ke C 16000 36000 40000

 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

MAXIMIN / WALD CRITERION

1. Invented by Abraham Wald

2. Based on the assumption that decision makers are pessimistic or

conservative or risk avoider about the future.

3. Choose a decision that reflects the maximum value of the minimum

result
 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

MAXIMIN / WALD CRITERION

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan

Investasi ke A 15000 37000 45000

Investasi ke B 10000 20000 25000

Investasi ke C 16000 36000 40000

 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

MAXIMAX

1. based on the assumption that decision makers are optimistic about the

future

2. Choose a decision that reflects the maximum value of the maximum

result
 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

MAXIMAX

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan

Investasi ke A 15000 37000 45000

Investasi ke B 10000 20000 25000

Investasi ke C 16000 36000 40000

 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

MINIMAX

1. Invented by L. J. Savage

2. The basic concept of Minimax is avoiding regret that arises after

choosing a certain decision and choosing the minimum value from the

maximum regret
 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

MINIMAX

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan

Investasi ke A 16000 - 15000 36000 - 37000 45000 - 45000

Investasi ke B 16000 -10000 36000 - 20000 45000 - 25000

Investasi ke C 16000 -16000 36000 - 36000 45000 - 40000

 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

MINIMAX

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan Nilai Max

Investasi ke A 1000 0 0 1000
Investasi ke B 6000 17000 20000 20000
Investasi ke C 0 1000 5000 5000
 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

LAPLACR

1. Laplace is based on assumption that all events have the same possibility

to occur.

2. determine the average of each alternative action and choose an

alternative that has maximum value.

 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Method

LAPLACE

Kondisi pasar Lesu Normal Menguntungkan Rata-rata

Investasi ke A 15000 37000 45000 32,334

Investasi ke B 10000 20000 25000 18,334

Investasi ke C 16000 36000 40000 30,667

 TUGAS
Seorang pengusaha dihadapkan pada pilihan untuk menginvestasikan uangnya pada 3
perusahaan tambang dengan komoditas berbeda, yaitu perusahaan tambang nikel,
tambang emas, dan tambang batubara Keuntungan yang akan diperoleh bergantung pada
kondisi pasar dunia kedepannya. Potensi keuntungan (pay off) tiap perusahaan pada tiap
kondisi disajikan pada tabel di bwah ini:

Lesu Normal Menguntungkan

Tambang Nikel 25000 47000 54000

Tambang Emas 35000 40000 52000

Tambang Batubara 20000 43000 57000

Lakukan analisis pengambilan keputusan pada :

a. Kondisi ketidakpastian

b. Kondisi beresiko apabila diketahu probabilitas masing-

masing kondisi adalah lesu = 35%, normal = 45%, dan
menguntungkan 20%.