Exam - 2 Review

Exam #2
Review
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 1

Chapter 9
Re-expressing Data:
Getting It Straight!

Straight to
the Point
• We cannot use a linear model unless the relationship
between the two variables is linear. Often re-
expression can save the day, straightening bent
relationships so that we can fit and use a simple
linear model.
• Two simple ways to re-express data are with
logarithms and reciprocals.
• Re-expressions can be seen in everyday life—
everybody does it.
Slide 10 - 3
Straight to the
Point (cont.)
• The relationship between fuel efficiency
(in miles per gallon) and weight (in
pounds) for late model cars looks fairly
linear at first:
Slide 10 - 4
Straight to
the Point
(cont.)
• A look at the
residuals plot
shows a
problem:
Slide 10 - 5
Straight to the Point (cont.)
• We can re-express fuel efficiency as gallons per
hundred miles (a reciprocal) and eliminate the bend in
the original scatterplot:
Slide 10 - 6
Straight to the Point (cont.)
• A look at the residuals plot for the new

model seems more reasonable:
Slide 10 - 7
Why Not Just Use a Curve?
If there’s a curve in the scatterplot, why not
just fit a curve to the data?
Slide 10 - 8
Why Not Just Use a Curve?
(cont.)
• The mathematics and calculations

for “curves of best fit” are
considerably more difficult than
“lines of best fit.”
• Besides, straight lines are easy to
understand. We know how to think
about the slope and the y-intercept.
Slide 10 - 9
What Should You Be Able to Do?
Recognize if a Straight Line is a Good Fit
Make a Judgement about Residuals
Suggest a Transformation

Chapter 13
From Randomness
to Probability

13.1
Random
Phenomena

Red Light, Green Light
Each day you drive through an intersection and check if

the light is red, green, or yellow.
• Day 1: green
• Day 2: red
• Day 3: green
Before you begin, you know:
• The possible outcomes
• An outcome will occur.
After you finish, you know:
• The outcomes that occurred

Random Phenomena Vocabulary
Trial
• Each occasion which we observe a random
phenomena
Outcome
• The value of the trial for the random phenomena
Event
• The combination of the trial’s outcomes
Sample Space
• The collection of all possible outcomes

The Law of Large Numbers
• If you flip a coin once, you will either get 100% heads
or 0% heads.
• If you flip a coin 1000 times, you will probably get
close to 50% heads.
The Law of Large Numbers states that for many trials,

the proportion of times an event occurs settles down to
one number.
• This number is called the empirical probability.

The Law of Large Numbers Requirements
Identical Probabilities
• The probabilities for each event must remain the
same for each trial.
Independence
• The outcome of a trial is not influenced by the
outcomes of the previous trials.
Empirical probability
• P(A)  # times A occurs (in the long run)
# of trials

The Law of Large Numbers Requirements
Identical Probabilities
• The probabilities for each event must remain the
same for each trial.
Independence
• The outcome of a trial is not influenced by the
outcomes of the previous trials.
Empirical probability
• P(A)  # times A occurs (in the long run)
# of trials

13.2
Modeling
Probability

Theoretical Probability
American Roulette
• 18 Red, 18 Black, 2 Green
• If you bet on Red, what is the probability of winning?
Theoretical Probability
• P(A) = # of outcomes in A
# of possible outcomes
• P(red)  18
38

Personal Probability
What’s your chance of getting an A in statistics?

• You cannot base this on your long-run experience.
• There is no sample space of events with equal

probabilities to list.
• You can only base your answer on personal
experience and guesswork.
• Probabilities based on personal experience rather
than long-run relative frequencies or equally likely
events are called personal probabilities.

13.3
Formal Probability

Rules 1 and 2
Rule 1: 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
• You can’t have a −25% chance of winning.
• A 120% chance also makes no sense.
• Note: Probabilities are written in decimals.

• 45% chance → P(A) = 0.45
Rule 2: P(S) = 1
• The set of all possible outcomes has probability 1.
• There is a 100% chance that you will get a head or
a tail.

Rule 3: The Complement Rule
Complements
• Define AC as the complement of A.
• AC is the event of A not happening.

• If A is the event of rolling a 5 on a six sided die,
then AC is the event of not rolling a 5: {1, 2, 3, 4, 6}
• P(A) = 1/6. P(AC) = ?
• P(AC) = 5/6 = 1 – 1/6
The Rule of Complements: P(AC) = 1 – P(A)

Rule 4: The Addition Rule
Suppose
P(sophomore) = 0.2 and P(junior) = 0.3
• Find P(sophomore OR junior)
• Solution: 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5
• This works because sophomore and junior are
disjoint events. They have no outcomes in
common.
The Addition Rule
• If A and B are disjoint events, then
P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B)

Rule 5: The Multiplication Rule
The probability that an Atlanta to Houston flight is on time

is 0.85.
• If you have to fly every Monday, find the probability
that your first two Monday flights will be on time.
Multiplication Rule: For independent events A and B:
P(A AND B) = P(A) × P(B)
• P(1st on time AND 2nd on time)
= P(1st on time) × P(2nd on time)
= 0.85 × 0.85
= 0.7225

What Can Go Wrong?
• Beware of probabilities that don’t add up to 1.

• If they add to less than 1, look for another category.
• If they add to more than 1, maybe they are not
disjoint.
• Don’t add probabilities of events if they are not

disjoint.
• Events must be disjoint to use the Addition Rule.

What Can Go Wrong?
• Don’t multiply probabilities of events if they are not

independent.
• P(over 6’ and on basketball team) is not equal to
P(over 6’) × P(on basketball team)
• Don’t confuse disjoint and independent

• Disjoint events are never independent.

Demonstrate an Understanding of Probability Concepts
Explain the Importance of the Law of Large Numbers
Calculate Probabilities from a Problem Statement
Demonstrate the Use of the 5 Rules

Chapter 14
Probability Rules!

14.1
The General
Addition Rule

The General Addition Rule
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

• The General Addition Rule
in words: Add the probabilities
of the two events and then
subtract the probability of
their intersection.
P(odd amount or bill with a building)

= P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B}
= P({$1, $5}) + P({$5, $10, $20, $50, $100}) – P({$5})

Using Venn Diagrams
P(not in relationship and no sports)

• P(RC and SC)
• This is the part outside of both
circles: 0.53.
P(in a relationship but no sports)
• P(R and SC)
• This is the part in the circle R that is outside S: 0.22.
P(in a relationship or involved in sports but not both)

• P((R and SC) or (RC and S))
• This is the combination of the circles minus the
intersection: 0.22 + 0.14 = 0.36
14.2
Conditional Probability
and the General
Multiplication Rule

Contingency Table
A table that displays the
results of two categorical
questions is called a contingency table.
• P(girl) = 251/478 = 0.525
• P(girl and popular) = 91/478 = 0.190
• P(sports) = 90/478 = 0.188

Conditional Probability Formula
Probability of B Given A:
P ( A and B)
• P (B | A) =
P( A)
• Example:
P (girl and popular )
P(girl | popular) =
P (popular )
91/ 478

141/ 478
91
  0.65
141
The General Multiplication Rule
• For A and B independent, we had:

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
• Rearranging the conditional probability equation, we

get the General Multiplication Rule:
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B | A)
• Equivalently,
P(A and B) = P(B) × P(A | B)

14.3
Independence

Definition of Independence
• Events A and B are independent if knowing A

happened does not change the probability of B. In
symbols:
A and B are independent ↔ P(B | A) = P(B)
• Equivalent formulas for independence:

• P(A | B) = P(A)
• P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)

14.4
Picturing Probability:
Tables, Venn
Diagrams, and Trees

Marginal and Joint Probabilities
• 71% use Facebook, 18% Twitter, 15% both

• Draw a partial table.
• 0.71 and 0.18 are called
marginal probabilities.
• 0.15 is a joint probability.
• How can we complete the
table?
• The sum must add up
• 0.15 + ? = 0.71
• 0.18 + ? = 1.00

Tree Diagrams
• 44% binge drink, 37% drink moderately, 19% don’t

drink
• Binge drinkers: 17% in an alcohol related accident
• Non-bingers: 9% in an alcohol-related accident
• Find the probability of being a binge drinker and has
had an alcohol-related accident.
• Venn diagrams and tables are not great for
conditional probabilities.
• Use a tree diagram.

Tree Diagrams
• The three branches are shown.

• This tree diagram gives
the complete information.
• Notice the sums:
• 0.17 + 0.83 = 1
• 0.09 + 0.91 = 1
• 0 + 1.0 = 1
• 0.44 + 0.37 + 0.19 = 1
• Conditional Probabilities:
• P(none | binge) = 0.83.

Probabilities From Trees
• P(moderate and accident)

= 0.37 × 0.09
= 0.0333
• P(abstain and accident)
= 0.19 × 0
= 0
• P(none) = (0.44 × 0.83)
+ (0.37 × 0.91) + (0.19 × 1.0)
= 0.8919

Tree Diagram Facts
• The sum of the probabilities

emanating from any branch
is 1.
• The final outcomes are disjoint.
• To find a conditional probability,

multiply across.

14.5
Reversing the
Conditioning and
Bayes’ Rule

Going Backwards
• Find P(binge | accident)

• Work backwards through the tree
P (binge and accident)
• P (binge | accident) =
P (accident)
0.44  0.17

 0.44  0.17    0.37  0.91   0.19  0 
0.075
  0.694
0.108

Bayes’ Rule for Two Branches
• Used for reversing the condition

• Expressed as an algebraic formula instead of a tree
• The tree is easier to use.
• A longer version works for more than 2 branches.
P ( A | B)P (B)
P (B | A) =
P ( A | B)P (B)+ P( A | BC )P(BC )

What Can Go Wrong?
Don’t use a simple probability rule where a general rule is

appropriate.
• Don’t assume independence or disjoint until after you
have done the verification.
Don’t reverse conditioning naïvely.
• P(A | B) may not be the same as P(B | A).
Don’t confuse “disjoint” with “independent.”

• Disjoint events cannot happen at the same time.
• Independent events must be able to happen at the
same time.

Solve Problems Using the General Addition Rule
Interpret Venn Diagrams
Calculate Conditional Probabilities
Establish Independence
Construct Tree Diagrams and Use to Answer Questions
Show Relationship of Tree Diagrams and Bayes Rule

Chapter 15
Random Variables

Expected Value: Center (cont.)
There are two types of random variables:

• Discrete random variables can take one of a
countable number of distinct outcomes.
• Example: Number of credit hours
• Continuous random variables can take any
numeric value within a range of values.
• Example: Cost of books this term
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 16 - 51 51
15.1
Center:
The Expected
Value

Expected Value: Center (cont.)
The expected value of a (discrete) random variable

can be found by summing the products of each
possible value by the probability that it occurs:
m = E ( X ) = å x × P (x )
Note: Be sure that every possible outcome is

included in the sum and verify that you have a
valid probability model to start with.

Slide 16 - 53 53
15.2
Spread:
The Standard
Deviation

First Center, Now Spread…
For data, we calculated the standard deviation by

first computing the deviation from the mean and
squaring it. We do that with discrete random
variables as well.
s = Var ( X ) = å (x - m ) × P (x )
The variance for
2 a random variable 2is:
The standard deviation for a random variable is:

s = SD ( X ) = Var ( X )

Slide 16 - 55 55
15.3
Shifting and
Combining
Random Variables

More About Means and Variances
Adding or subtracting a constant from data shifts the

mean but doesn’t change the variance or standard
deviation:
E(X ± c) = E(X) ± c Var(X ± c) = Var(X)
• Example: Consider everyone in a company

receiving a $5000 increase in salary.

Slide 16 - 57 57
More About Means and Variances (cont.)
In general, multiplying each value of a random

variable by a constant multiplies the mean by that
constant and the variance by the square of the
constant:
E(aX) = aE(X) Var(aX) = a2Var(X)
• Example: Consider everyone in a company

receiving a 10% increase in salary.

Slide 16 - 58 58
More About Means and Variances (cont.)
In general,
• The mean of the sum of two random variables is
the sum of the means.
• The mean of the difference of two random
variables is the difference of the means.
E(X ± Y) = E(X) ± E(Y)
• If the random variables are independent, the
variance of their sum or difference is always the
sum of the variances.
Var(X ± Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y)

Slide 16 - 59 59
15.4
Continuous
Random Variables

Continuous Random Variables (cont.)
Good news: nearly everything we’ve said about how

discrete random variables behave is true of
continuous random variables, as well.
When two independent continuous random variables
have Normal models, so does their sum or
difference.
This fact will let us apply our knowledge of Normal
probabilities to questions about the sum or
difference of independent random variables.

Slide 16 - 61 61
What Can Go Wrong? (cont.)
Don’t forget: Variances of independent random

variables add. Standard deviations don’t.
Don’t forget: Variances of independent random
variables add, even when you’re looking at the
difference between them.
Don’t write independent instances of a random
variable with notation that looks like they are the
same variables.

Slide 16 - 62 62
Find Mean and Variance of Combined Distributions

Chapter 16
Probability
Models

16.2
The Geometric
Model

The Geometric Model
• We want to model how long it will take to achieve

the first success in a series of Bernoulli trials.
• The model that tells us this probability is called the
Geometric probability model.

Geometric Probability Model for
Bernoulli Trials: GEOM(n, p)
p = probability of success
q = 1 – p = probability of failure
X = number of trials until the first success
occur
P( X = x) = q p
x-1
1
E(X) = m =
Expected value: p
q
s=
Standard deviation: p 2

16.3
The Binomial
Model

The Binomial Model
• A Binomial probability model describes the

number of successes in a specified number of
trials.
• It takes two parameters to specify this model: the
number of trials n and the probability of success p.

Binomial Probability Model for
Bernoulli Trials: BINOM(n, p)
x = number of trials
p = probability of success
q = 1 – p = probability of failure
X = number of successes in n trials
n!
P ( X = x ) = n Cx p q , x n-x
n Cx =
x!( n - x )!
Mean: m = np
Standard deviation: s = npq

16.4
Approximating the
Binomial with the
Normal Model

Example: Spam and the Normal
Approximation to the Binomial
Only 151 of 1422 emails got through your spam filter.
Might the filter be too aggressive?
• What is the probability that no more than 151 of
the emails are real messages?
• These emails represent less than 10% of all

emails.
• np = (1422)(0.09) = 127.98  10
• nq = (1422)(0.91) = 1294.02  10
• Yes, the Normal model is a good

approximation.
Example: Spam and the Normal
Approximation to the Binomial
• What is the probability that no more than 151 of
the emails are real messages?
•  = np = 127.98
• σ = npq  10.79
•P ( X  151-127.98 
 151)  P  z    P ( z  2.13)  0.9834
 10.79 
• There is over a 98% chance that no more than
151 of them were real messages. The filter may
be working.

16.5
The Continuity
Correction

The Continuity Correction
When we use the Normal distribution to approximate
discrete events, we go halfway to the next value on
the left and/or right.
Approximate P ( X = 10 ) by finding P ( 9.5 £ X £ 10.5 )
Binomial ( 50,0.2 ) , m = 10, s = 2.83
æ 9.5 -10 10.5 -10 ö
P ( 9.5 £ X £ 10.5 ) » P ç £z£ ÷
è 2.83 2.83 ø
= P ( -0.177 £ z £ 0.177 )
= 0.1405
The exact Binomial probability is 0.1398.
16.6
The Poisson
Model

Poisson for Small p
• For rare events (small p), np may be less than

10.
• Use the Poisson instead of the Normal model.
• l = np mean number of successes
• X = number e  lof
l xsuccesses
P( X = x) 
• x!
E ( X )  l , SD( X )  l
•
• Good approximation if n  20 with p ≤ 0.05

or n ≤ 100 with p ≤ 0.10
16.7
Other Continuous
Random
Variables: The
Uniform and
Exponential

The Uniform Distribution
ì 1
ï , if a £ x £ b
f ( x) = íb - a
ïî0 otherwise

The Exponential Distribution
f ( x ) = l e- l x for x ³ 0 and l > 0

What Can Go Wrong?
Be sure you have Bernoulli Trials.

• two possible outcome, constant probability of
success, independence
Don’t confuse Geometric and Binomial models.
• Geometric: repeat until get first success
• Binomial: counting success in specified number
of trials
Don’t use the normal approximation for small n.
• np > 10, nq > 10

Calculate Geometric Probability (First Success)
Calculate Binomial Probability (Number of Successes)
Use Normal Distribution to Estimate Binomial Probability

Chapter 17
Sampling
Distribution
Models

17.1
Sampling
Distribution of a
Proportion

Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distribution for Proportions

• Symmetric
• Unimodal
• Centered at p
• The sampling distribution follows the Normal
model.
What does the sampling distribution tell us?

• The sampling distribution allows us to make
statements about where we think the
corresponding population parameter is and how
precise these statements are likely to be. 85
Mean and Standard Deviation
Sampling Distribution for Proportions

• Mean = p
npq pq
• σ( pˆ ) = =
n n
 pq 
• N  p, 
 n 

The Normal Model for Climate Change
Population: p = 0.57, n = 1022. Sampling
Distribution:
• Mean = 0.57 0.57 0.43
SD( p̂) =
( )( ) » 0.0155
• Standard deviation = 1022

17.2
When Does the

Normal Model
Work?
Assumptions and
Conditions

When Does the Normal Model Work?
• Success Failure Condition:

np  10, nq  10 There must be at
least 10 expected successes and
failures.
• Independent trials: Check for

the Randomization Condition.
• 10% Condition: Sample size less

than 10% of the population size

17.4
The Central Limit

Theorem: The
Fundamental
Theorem of
Statistics

The Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem
• The sampling distribution of any mean becomes
nearly Normal as the sample size grows.
Requirements
• Independent
• Randomly collected sample
The sampling distribution of the means is close to

Normal if either:
• Large sample size
• Population close to Normal

The Sampling Distribution Model for a
Mean
When a random sample is drawn from a population
with mean  and standard deviation s, the sampling
distribution has:
• Mean: 
s
• Standard Deviation:
n
• For large sample size, the distribution is
approximately normal regardless of the
population the random sample comes from.
• The larger the sample size, the closer to
Normal. Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 92
17.5
Sampling
Distributions: A
Summary

Sample Size and Standard Deviation
s pq
• SD(y ) = SD( pˆ ) =
n n
• Larger sample size → Smaller standard deviation
• Multiply n by 4 → Divide the standard deviation

by 2.
• Need a sample size of 100 to reduce the

standard deviation by a factor of 10.

Distribution of the Sample
vs. the Sampling Distribution
Don’t confuse the distribution of the sample and the
sampling distribution.
• If the population’s distribution is not Normal,
then the sample’s distribution will not be normal
even if the sample size is very large.
• For large sample sizes, the sampling

distribution, which is the distribution of all
possible sample means from samples of that
size, will be approximately Normal.

Describe Sampling Distribution
Calculate the Standard Deviation of the Sampling

Distribution
Use Standard Normal Table to Calculate Probabilities

Chapter 18
Confidence
Intervals for
Proportions

17.5
Sampling
Distributions: A
Summary

Standard Error for a Proportion
What is the sampling distribution?

• Usually we do not know the population
proportion p.
• We cannot find the standard deviation of the
sampling distribution: pq
n
• After taking a sample, we only know the sample
proportion, which we use as an approximation.
• The standard error is given by
ˆˆ
pq
SE  p
ˆ 
n

Facebook Daily Status Updates
A recent survey found that 48 of 156

or 30.8% update their Facebook
status daily.
• SE  pˆ  
ˆˆ
pq

 0.308  0.692   0.037
n 156
• The sampling distribution is approximately
normal.

What You Can Say About p if You p̂
Know
We don’t know exactly what percent of all Facebook
users update their status daily, but the interval from
23.4% and 38.2% probably contains the true
proportion.
• Note, we admit we are unsure about both the
exact proportion and whether it is in the interval.
We are 95% confident that between 23.4% and

38.2% of all Facebook users update their status
daily.
• Notice “% confident” and an interval rather than
an exact value are stated. 101
18.2
Interpreting
Confidence
Intervals:
What Does 95%
Confidence Really
Mean?

Capturing a Proportion
• The confidence interval may or may not contain

the true population proportion.
• Consider repeating the study over an over
again, each time with the same sample size.
• Each time we would get a different
p̂ .
• From eachp̂ , a different confidence interval
could be computed.
• About 95% of these confidence intervals will
capture the true proportion.
• 5% will be duds.

18.3
Margin of Error:
Certainty vs.
Precision

Margin of Error
• Confidence interval for a population proportion:

pˆ  2SE  pˆ 
• The distance,2SE  pˆ  , from
p̂ is called the
margin of error.
• Confidence intervals also work for means,
regression slopes, and others. In general, the
confidence interval has the form
Estimate  ME
Critical Values
• For a 95% confidence interval, the margin of

error was 2SE.
• The 2 comes from the normal curve.
• 95% of the area is within about 2SE from the
mean.
• In general the number of SE is called the critical

value. Since we use the normal distribution
here we denote it z*.

18.4
Assumptions and
Conditions

Independence and Sample Size
• Independence Condition
• If data is collected using SRS or a randomized
experiment → Randomization Condition
• Some data values do not influence others.
• Check for the 10% Condition: The sample size
is less than 10% of the population size.
• Success/Failure Condition
• There must be at least 10 successes.
• There must be at least 10 failures.

One-Proportion z-Interval
• First check for randomization, independence,
10%, and conditions on sample size.
p̂
• Confidence level C, sample size n, proportion .
• Confidence interval:pˆ  z*SE  pˆ 
• SE  pˆ  
 pˆ qˆ 
n
• z*: the critical value that specifies the number of
SE’s needed for C% of random samples to yield
confidence intervals that capture the population
proportion.

What Sample Size? ˆˆ
pq
ME  z *
n
• For 95%, z* = 1.96
• pˆ  0.5,
Values that make ME largest are qˆ  0.5
• For example, to ensure a ME < 3%:
0.03  1.96
 0.5  0.5 
n
• Solving for n, gives n ≈ 1067.1.
• We need to survey at least 1068 to ensure a ME
less than 0.03 for the 95% confidence interval.

Calculate Confidence Interval for Proportions
Explain Margin of Error
Calculate Appropriate Sample Size

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Exam #2

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Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 2

• A look at the residuals plot for the new

• The mathematics and calculations

Recognize if a Straight Line is a Good Fit

Make a Judgement about Residuals

Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 10

Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 11

Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 12

Each day you drive through an intersection and check if

Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 13

Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 14

The Law of Large Numbers states that for many trials,

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What’s your chance of getting an A in statistics?

• There is no sample space of events with equal

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• Note: Probabilities are written in decimals.

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• AC is the event of A not happening.

The Rule of Complements: P(AC) = 1 – P(A)

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The probability that an Atlanta to Houston flight is on time

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• Beware of probabilities that don’t add up to 1.

• Don’t add probabilities of events if they are not

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• Don’t multiply probabilities of events if they are not

• Don’t confuse disjoint and independent

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Demonstrate an Understanding of Probability Concepts

Explain the Importance of the Law of Large Numbers

Calculate Probabilities from a Problem Statement

Demonstrate the Use of the 5 Rules

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P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

P(odd amount or bill with a building)

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P(not in relationship and no sports)

P(in a relationship or involved in sports but not both)

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• P(girl) = 251/478 = 0.525

• P(girl and popular) = 91/478 = 0.190

• P(sports) = 90/478 = 0.188

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• For A and B independent, we had:

• Rearranging the conditional probability equation, we

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• Events A and B are independent if knowing A

• Equivalent formulas for independence:

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• 71% use Facebook, 18% Twitter, 15% both