Improving Estimating

Accuracy
How good an estimator are
you?
For the following questions…
• Give a range (upper and lower bounds)
• Do not make your ranges either too wide or too
narrow
• Make the range so you believe there is a 90%
chance of including the right value
 What is the surface
temperature of Mars?

What is the weight of the

heaviest elephant alive
today?

How long is a string?

Psychology works against us.
• Feeling of ignorance
• Protection of pride
• Influence from expectations
Under-estimation
• Reduced effectiveness of project plans
• Reduced chance of on-time completion
• Destructive late-project dynamics
Over-estimation
• Parkinson’s Law
•The adage that "work expands so as to fill the time
available for its completion".
• Student Syndrome
•Refers to planned academic procrastination, when a person
will only start to apply themselves to an assignment at the last
possible moment before its deadline.
Tainting estimates with
customer expectations
Do we even understand
what we are estimating?
“Build me a house.”
How Many Bedrooms?
• 2 Bedrooms ~ 800 sq ft., 1 bathroom,
1 car garage, small or shared yard.

• 4 Bedrooms ~ 1400 – 2200 sq ft.,

2 bathrooms, 2 car garage, yard
Review Requirements
• Forces further exploration
of unknown or large features
• Insists task break downs of
lengthy known features
• Teaches the wisdom of knowing
when something is really unknown
“A good estimate is a estimate that provides a clear
enough view of the project reality to allow the
project leadership to make good decisions about
how to control the project to hit
its targets”

[Steve McConnell, Software Estimation]