Introduction to Probability

WALT:
• Know what probability is
• Understand how to use the probability scale
• Know how to calculate simple probabilities
using 0-1 or fractional/ part values
What is probability?
 What is probability?
• likelihood or chance of
something happening
number of ways of getting what you want
number of possible outcomes
Example 1:
Tony tosses a coin. What is the
probability of getting a head?

number of ways of getting what you want

number of possible outcomes

1
2
Example 2:
Amy roll a fair dice, what is the
probability of getting a four?

number of ways of getting what you want

number of possible outcomes

1
6
How do we measure
probability?
Probability scale

0 0.5 1

LIKELY IMPOSSIBLE CERTAIN UNLIKELY EVEN

 Probability scale

0 0.5 1
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

7
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

1 EATING JUNK FOOD

AND AVOIDING EXERCISE
WILL MAKE YOU LOSE WEIGHT
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

2
EATING 5 FRUIT AND VEGETABLES PER
DAY HELPS PREVENT DISEASE
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

3
GOOD ATTENDANCE AT SCHOOL HAS A
POSITIVE EFFECT ON ACHIEVEMENT.
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

4
THE NEXT BABY TO BE BORN IN BURY
IS GOING TO BE A BOY.
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

JANUARY 12 FALLS ON A
5
TUESDAY IN 2016
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

6 I WILL BE ABLE
TO SPEAK
FLUENT
RUSSIAN
IN THE
NEXT 5 MINUTES
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

1 UNLIKELY
EATING JUNK FOOD
AND AVOIDING EXERCISE
WILL MAKE YOU LOSE WEIGHT
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

2 LIKELY
EATING 5 FRUIT AND VEGETABLES PER
DAY HELPS PREVENT DISEASE
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

3 LIKELY
GOOD ATTENDANCE AT SCHOOL HAS A
POSITIVE EFFECT ON ACHIEVEMENT.
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

4 EVEN
THE NEXT BABY TO BE BORN IN BURY
IS GOING TO BE A BOY.
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

5 CERTAIN
JANUARY 12 FALLS ON A
TUESDAY IN 2016
IMPOSSIBLE UNLIKELY EVEN LIKELY CERTAIN

IMPOSSIBLE
6
I WILL BE ABLE
TO SPEAK
FLUENT
RUSSIAN
IN THE
NEXT 5 MINUTES
How many Smarties
are there altogether?

20
 All the Smarties are put back in the tube.

If I pick a Smartie at random, what is

the probability that it is green?

Total number of Smarties = 20

Number of green Smarties = 1

Probability of picking green = 1

20
 All the Smarties are in the tube.

If I pick a Smartie at random, what is

the probability that it is brown?

Total number of Smarties = 20

Number of brown Smarties = 4

Probability of picking brown = 4

20
= 1
5
 All the Smarties are in the tube.

If I pick a Smartie at random, what is the

probability that it is orange or yellow?

Total number of Smarties = 20

Number of orange
and yellow Smarties =7

Probability of picking 7
orange or yellow =
20
 All the Smarties are in the tube.

If I pick a Smartie at random, what is the

probability that it is not blue?

Total number of Smarties = 20

Number of not blue

Smarties = 17

Probability of not 17
picking blue =
20
Worksheet to follow:
Circle the best word to describe the probability

PROBABILITY SCALE
0 0.5 1